Mild temps for New Year's Eve, first two days of 2022, forecasters say

Mild temperatures and rain will arrive starting early Saturday and last through the day and potentially into Sunday, forecasters said.

Showers will start after 3 a.m. with temperatures hitting a daytime high of 52, and a nighttime low — coupled with a calm wind — of 51, the National Weather Service said.

And that atypical warmth continues into Sunday.

"Saturday and Sunday will be very similar with high temperatures of 50s expected regionwide and even some lower 60s for northeast New Jersey," the weather service said.

And then temperatures plunge as a cold front pushes offshore — and the recent rainy streak ends, forecasters said.

"Temperatures will drop late in the day for western areas, and everywhere overnight Sunday night into Monday morning," the weather service said.

Sunday’s nighttime low will fall to 27. The odds of showers, possibly with a touch of snow, are 30%.

"It may be cold enough Sunday night for some flakes to mix in or a brief changeover to all snow for extreme southeastern Connecticut and Twin Forks of Long Island before [the] precipitation ends," forecasters said.

Monday should be sunny and brisk, with a high temperature of 33 during the day, followed by a cold night in the mid-20s.

Tuesday ends that brief cold snap, however. Under sunny skies, thermometers should hit the mid-40s, falling to around freezing at night.

Wednesday and Thursday should be cloudy — and slightly warmer.

Unseasonable temperatures

The tristate's un-winter, with oddly warm temperatures and no snow to speak of, reflects the two main systems driving the nation’s weather.

They are troughing, or snow-delivering low pressure systems in the West, opposed by ridging, or a sky-clearing low pressure pattern in the Southeast, the weather service’s Weather Prediction Center explained.

"Abnormally warm and humid conditions will stick around in the Southeast with considerably milder conditions spreading as far north as the Northeast by New Year's Day," it said.

"Numerous record highs are expected from the Gulf Coast to the northern mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning, with some record warm low temperatures most likely in the Southeast," where storms could take hold.

In the metropolitan area, the chances for rain increase as New Year’s Eve wears on into early New Year’s Day, as a weak low pressure system travels through — exiting by Sunday night.

The warm, rising air in low pressure systems allows raindrops to condense; falling, drying air in high pressure leads to clear skies.

In addition to the temperature-dropping cold front forecast to swing through Sunday night, the region will be "skirted by [an] arctic air mass bottled up across Canada," forecasters said.

Later in the week, a couple of low pressure systems may affect the metropolitan area, one reaching the St. Lawrence River Valley on Wednesday and a second heading to the Northeast from the Tennessee Valley, they added.