Week 17 NFL Gridiron Guide and Fantasy Take
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree (15) celebrates after scoring on a 52-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Alex Smith with wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr. (19) and running back Kendall Hunter (32) during the third quarter of an NFL football game against the St. Louis Rams. (Dec. 4, 2011) Credit: AP
COWBOYS (8-7) at GIANTS (8-7), 8:20 p.m.
Giants by 3. O/U: 46.5
TV: Ch. 4. Radio: WFAN (660).
In a handful of games this weekend, it's difficult to determine which teams will play tough (or rest their starters) in terms of covering the spread. That's certainly not the case here for the Giants and Cowboys. If the Giants win, they're in. They'll even make the playoffs with a tie. Winner takes NFC East title and gets to host a playoff game next week as the No. 4 seed, either against the Lions or Falcons. Loser gets an extra-long offseason. The Cowboys have lost six straight Sunday night games, and dropped four of five, and six of the last eight to the G-Men. There'll be no Big Blue Flu to start 2012. Giants 34, Dallas 27.
THE PICK: Giants
RONIS' FANTASY TAKE: With the division on the line, use players from this game, including Cowboys RB Felix Jones, who should get a lot of touches. All reports indicate Cowboys QB Tony Romo will play this week. He practiced with a wrap on his bruised throwing hand Thursday, but teammates say there was no difference in his throws. Start him.
JETS (8-7) at DOLPHINS (5-10), 1:00 p.m.
Dolphins by 2; O/U: 41
TV: Ch. 2. Radio: ESPN (1050).
Did anyone ever give Jets coach Rex Ryan a giant towel to get all of the egg off his face last week? Must've been a Big Blue Christmas for the Ryan family. Ryan will never change his spots: he just keeps talking, and talking, and talking . . . but nobody's going to listen if the Jets are home next week. The Jets need more help to make the playoffs for a third straight season than I do of getting onmy skinny jeans after the holidays. As competitive as the Dolphins have been -- 8-1 record against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games -- Gang Green (7-1 last 8 trips to Miami) is the more desperate team here. THE PICK: Jets
RONIS' FANTASY TAKE: Dolphins RB Reggie Bush (knee) didn't practice yesterday. He has four consecutive 100-yard rushing games, so play him if he goes.
1 P.M. GAMES
TITANS (8-7) at TEXANS (10-5), 1 p.m.
Titans by 3; O/U: 40.5
The Titans are in the same boat with the Jets. The one that says HELP! on the side of it. Just a win won't cut it. Houston is locked in as the No. 3 seed, but Texans coach Gary Kubiak says he'll play his starters after back-to-back losses. Not smart. THE PICK: Titans
FANTASY:
Titans RB Chris Johnson is risky with a sprained ankle. He has just four TDs this season.
LIONS (10-5) at PACKERS (14-1)
Lions by 3.5; O/U: 46.5
You gotta feel for Lions kicker Jason Hanson: 20 straight trips to Green Bay, 20 straight losses. Packers are locked in as NFC's No. 1 seed. If Lions win, or Falcons lose, Detroit travels to NFC East winner; a much better proposition than facing Saints or 49ers on the road. How sweet would it be if Hanson kicked the winning field goal in the final seconds? THE PICK: Lions
FANTASY: All Packers starters are risky, so bench QB Aaron Rodgers. WR James Jones is the best bet to play the most snaps.
49ERS (12-3) at RAMS (2-13)
49ers by 10.5. O/U: 35.5
Niners need a win to secure important No. 2 seed and first-round bye. With a little luck, the Rams could get a guy named Luck. A Rams' loss and a Colts win gives St. Louis the No. 1 overall pick in 2012 NFL Draft. THE PICK: 49ers
FANTASY: 49ers WR Michael Crabtree has at least 11 points in a PPR league in five of the last six games and has a good matchup.
PANTHERS (6-9) at SAINTS (11-3)
Saints by 8.5; O/U: 54.5
Did Drew Brees, the NFL's single-season passing yardage champ, do enough to overthrow Packers' Aaron Rodgers as NFL's MVP? (Rodgers gets my vote). Saints (10-1 ATS last 11 home games) could rest starters in second half. Road team is 18-4 ATS in last 22 meetings.
THE PICK: Panthers
FANTASY: The Saints plan to play their starters, but San Francisco clinches the No. 2 seed with a win. Both teams play at 1 p.m. Panthers QB Cam Newton is Top 3 this week.
BILLS (6-9) at PATRIOTS (12-3)
Patriots by 11.5; O/U: 51.5
A Patriots win gives them No. 1 seed in the AFC. If so, will there ever have been a conference No. 1 seed with a defense this bad? The PICK: Bills
FANTASY: Start all your Patriots. Bills RB C.J. Spiller has impressed and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is a borderline QB1.
4:15 P.M. GAMES
RAVENS (11-4) at BENGALS (9-6)
Ravens by 2.5; O/U: 38
Bengals win, they're in. Cincy offered a buy-one, get-one-free promotion to season ticket holders which helped Cincy get just its second sellout in the last 12 games and lifted their local blackout. Too bad, because Ravens win and cover. THE PICK: Ravens
FANTASY: Bengals WR A.J. Green, bothered by a shoulder injury, is a good play in a critical game for the Bengals.
CHIEFS (6-9) at BRONCOS (8-7)
Broncos by 3.5; O/U: 37
The only person more annoyed by all the Tim Tebow talk is Kyle Orton. You remember him, right? The old Broncos-new Chiefs QB will be fired up to help prevent Denver from making the playoffs.
THE PICK: Chiefs
FANTASY: Orton has 599 yards passing in two games with his new team.
CHARGERS (7-8) at RAIDERS (8-7)
Raiders by 3; O/U: 49
Raiders can make the postseason with a win and some help. I think Chargers (0-5 ATS last 5 vs. Raiders) showed what they were made of last week vs. Detroit. Goodbye, Norv Turner! THE PICK: Raiders
FANTASY: Raiders RB Michael Bush gets a lot of touches and is a RB1. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews has favorable matchup vs. No. 27 run defense.
BUCS (4-11) at FALCONS (9-5)
Falcons by 12; O/U: 46.5
Bucs (1-8 ATS last 9 overall) play hard and show management that coach Raheem Morris deserves another season. THE PICK: Bucs
FANTASY: Even if Falcons WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones exit early, they can still put up numbers against Bucs' 'D'.
STEELERS (11-4) at BROWNS (4-11)
OFF (Pittsburgh QB questionable); O/U: OFF
No Big Ben? Does it matter? Cleveland is 1-8-2 ATS in last 11 at home. THE PICK: Steelers
FANTASY: Expect another big workload for RB Rashard Mendenhall. Browns RB Peyton Hillis is running well and is a low-end RB2.
OTHER GAMES
REDSKINS (5-10) at EAGLES (7-8)
Eagles by 9; O/U: 46.5
Call this the coulda, would, shoulda game of the NFC Least, er, East. 'Skins have covered last 4 in Philly, but I think Iggles (4-0 ATS in last 4 vs. NFC East foes) begin 2012 with double-digit win. THE PICK: Eagles
FANTASY: Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin showed he's healthy last week with five catches for 72 yards with a TD.
COLTS (2-13) at JAGUARS (4-11)
Jaguars by 3.5; O/U: 37
Indy, what are you doing? A lock for No. 1 pick at 0-13, now they may be out of Luck. You're not Charlie Sheen, stop the "winning" stuff already! THE PICK: Colts
FANTASY: Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a must-start as he goes for the rushing title.
BEARS (7-8) at VIKINGS (3-12)
Vikings by 1; O/U: 41
Vikings' impressive win against Redskins last week cost them shot at No. 1 overall pick. THE PICK: Bears
FANTASY: Bears RB Kahlil Bell was very impressive last week. In the three games Vikings RB Adrian Peterson missed, Toby Gerhart averaged 23.3 touches and 101 total yards. Start him.
SEAHAWKS (7-8) at CARDINALS (7-8), 4 p.m.
Cardinals by 3; O/U: 41
Seattle (9-5-1 ATS in '11) is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall, and 4-0-1 last 5 as road underdog. THE PICK: Seahawks
FANTASY: Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch has scored a TD in 11 straight games.
