Which teams will, won't turn it around?

Memorial Day weekend means it's time for our fourth annual "Turn-around teams" poll, as we try to figure out what we're seeing in the early results of the baseball season.

A "turnaround team" is a club that either a) posted a losing record last year and now has a winning record, or b) posted a winning record last year and now has a losing record. Simple enough, right? As of the completion of Friday's action, there were 10 such teams.

I polled officials from 15 of the "static" clubs, teams either still winning or still losing like last year, to get their takes on the turnaround teams. There were 17 such teams.

The Tigers and A's were not included because they finished at .500 (81-81) last year, and the Mariners (25-25) because their victory Friday night over the Yankees pulled them even.

The question for each team was simple: "Will this team keep winning/losing, or will it regress/progress to its 2010 profile?" Each team's "confidence rating" reflects the number of voters who thought the team would finish 2011 with a winning record.

Our results:

Angels (80-82, 27-26). You'll see varying counts of respondents cited. That's because the Angels, for instance, just rose above .500 late Friday night, after I already had completed most questionnaires. The one person I asked yesterday thought the Angels would finish above .500, as a testament to manager Mike Scioscia, so they have a perfect 100 percent confidence rating.

Indians (69-93, 30-18). Fourteen of 15 polled, 93.3 percent, thought Cleveland would keep winning. Many pointed to its talent, while a few also mentioned their toughness.

White Sox (88-74, 24-29). Thirteen of the 15 people questioned, 86.7 percent, saw the White Sox turning their season back around to finish with a winning record. Many cited their strong pitching staff, and one official said that the White Sox simply played poorly at the beginning of the season and wouldn't duplicate that.

Marlins (80-82, 29-20). Like the White Sox, the Marlins got 13 of 15 people, 86.7 percent, aboard their bandwagon. Their starting rotation, bullpen, infield defense and the fact that Hanley Ramirez hasn't even done much yet were noted.

Brewers (77-85, 27-24). Twelve of 15, 80 percent (like Colorado, but with higher volume), figured that the Brewers would keep winning, thanks to their starting pitching and offense. The detractors pointed to their defense and bullpen.

Rockies (83-79 in 2010, 24-26 through Friday). Of the five people asked about the Rockies, four thought they'd climb back over .500, for an 80 percent confidence rating. The optimists cited the vulnerable NL West, while the one pessimist noted that ace Ubaldo Jimenez seemed nothing like his old self.

Blue Jays (85-77, 25-26). Four of eight respondents, 50 percent, thought the Blue Jays would finish over .500. The pro-Jays crowd cited both the pitching staff and the lineup, while the anti-contingent thought the AL East schedule was just too tough.

Diamondbacks (65-97, 26-25). Two of five asked, 40 percent, thought the D-Backs could hang around and make an impressive leap from their last- place showing of 2010 to a win- ning record. The decrease in strikeouts and admiration for manager Kirk Gibson were noted.

Twins (94-68, 16-33). Three of 15 panelists believed that the Twins could turn around their miserable start and post a winning record, a 20 percent confidence rating. The 12 skeptics all made sure to voice their respect for the Twins organization while noting Justin Morneau's ineffectiveness, Joe Mauer's injury absence and a bad bullpen. The two believers felt nothing could keep a good Twins comeback down.

Padres (90-72, 20-31). Zero of 15 saw them turning it around, for a perfectly awful zero percent confidence rating. The loss of Adrian Gonzalez, in a trade to Boston, has proved too damaging to overcome.