Winter weather in New York has started off slow. When will it pick up?

Jan. 6—STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — New York City has managed to avoid snowfall through the first weeks of winter, but conditions could begin to shift toward the end of the month.

January has started with record-high temperatures that has made weather on Staten Island feel closer to springtime, and forecasts expect New York City to be warmer than normal over the next few weeks.

A December that featured a roller-coaster of temperature changes came with little-to-no snow for the New York City area. Just one-tenth an inch of snow was tracked in Newark, N.J., for the whole month, while Central Park did not even reach measurable levels, well below the normal 5.9 inches typically seen there by Jan. 5.

"Much of January is expected to feature above normal temperatures, and, unfortunately for the snow lovers, that may result in most of these passing storm systems to produce rain rather than snow through at least into late month," said Brandon Buckingham, an AccuWeather meteorologist.

However, Buckingham said forecasters are tracking a potential cooldown spurred by a disruption of the polar vortex that could begin toward the end of January into early February.

That disruption, he said, "could lead to an increased potential for a passing storm or a coastal storm to produce one of these swaths of snow."

AccuWeather predicted New York City would receive roughly 18 to 23 inches of snow for the season. That total is under the average of just under 30 inches tracked between 1991 and 2020.

Fewer snowstorms are part of that prediction, said Buckingham, but significant accumulation can still pile up in just a couple isolated storms.

"We do kind of expect the bulk of that [accumulation] to maybe occur in a matter of two or three storms in the February to early March period," said Buckingham.

Last year, Staten Island also experienced a slow start to snow accumulation. Then, well over a foot of accumulation was recorded in a matter of days — bolstered by a bomb cyclone that delivered a powerful weather system to the five boroughs.

A similar story could play out this year, even as New York City is expected to see above-average temperatures in the coming months.

Warmer-than-normal conditions, though, could actually mean winter storms pack a heavier punch.

Warmer temperatures heat up air particles in the Earth's atmosphere, enabling them to hold more moisture than cooler particles. Storms, which are highly efficient at ringing all the water vapor from the atmosphere, release that moisture in the form of heavy precipitation.

Akin to warmer temperatures acting as fuel for summer storms to drop significant rainfall, above-average winter temperatures can allow more moisture to be stored in the atmosphere and cause subsequent snowfall to be intense.

Temperatures, then, can be just slightly warmer than normal — but still below freezing — and create massive storms that pummel areas with intense winter conditions.

—Winter outlook 2023: How much snow is expected to fall in NYC? Forecasters weigh in.

—How can warmer winters mean more intense snowstorms? An expert explains.

—Winter outlook 2023: What's the latest forecast for NYC from January through March?

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