Yair Lapid's election brings big expectations in Israel

JERUSALEM -- Political newcomer Yair Lapid electrified Israel with his surprising success in this week's election and an Obama-like message of hope and change, and expectations are high.

The former TV talk show host will need to make strides on addressing economic ills and advancing peace prospects with the Palestinians to avoid becoming another in a long line of centrists who have burst onto the political scene with great fanfare, only to flame out.

To avoid that fate, Lapid's Yesh Atid movement will need to produce concrete results in Israel's Knesset, or parliament.

"Everyone at Yesh Atid is aware of the expectations and the responsibility which is upon us," said Dov Lipman, an American-born rabbi and incoming lawmaker from Lapid's party.

Beating the polls

Re-election polls predicted Lapid's party would win about a dozen of 120 parliament seats. Instead, the party, running in its first election, emerged as the country's second-biggest party, with 19 seats.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-Yisrael Beitenu party remains the largest bloc with 31 seats, and he is expected to continue to serve as prime minister. But Netanyahu has little choice but to form an alliance with Lapid to ensure a viable governing majority.

Though Lapid himself comes from Israel's high society -- he is a well-known media celebrity and the son of a former cabinet minister -- he campaigned as an average citizen fighting for Israel's struggling middle class.

He criticized the country's high cost of living, its expensive system of handouts and draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox seminary students and, to a lesser extent, Netanyahu's failure to advance peace efforts with the Palestinians.

Netanyahu has reached out to Lapid, calling for formation of a broad coalition. Given its strong bargaining position, Yesh Atid, or There Is a Future, is convinced it can make headway on two of the most intractable issues to bedevil the country: forcing ultra-Orthodox men to join their secular counterparts in performing compulsory military or national service, and pushing forward a peace treaty that would result in a Palestinian state.

Doing so will not be easy. To ensure a parliamentary majority, Lapid and Netanyahu would need at least one other partner. The most likely candidates appear to be either smaller, ultra-Orthodox parties, which are sure to fight draft-law reform, or the pro-settler Jewish Home, which will resist peace efforts.

Second-generation centrist

It's not the first time a party championing centrist views has marched onto the scene seeking to solve similar issues. All before him have failed, including Lapid's own father. The late Joseph "Tommy" Lapid, also a journalist turned politician, led the liberal Shinui party from 1999 to 2006.

The makeup of Lapid's party is far different from those of his centrist predecessors. Instead of recycling experienced politicians, Lapid cobbled together an eclectic list of newcomers. The coterie of enthusiastic, diverse fresh faces -- Ethiopian Jewish immigrants, social workers, a former security chief, a progressive Orthodox rabbi and even a judo champion -- could inject new ideas into the political scene.

Israeli commentators expect Lapid to drive a hard bargain with Netanyahu. "Netanyahu will barely be able to swallow, but people tend to show a surprising degree of flexibility when they have a knife to their necks," wrote leading columnist Nahum Barnea.

If a Netanyahu-Lapid coalition fails to realize the key goals of Lapid's party, the government could crumble, and Lapid could make a serious run at becoming prime minister, said Yaron Ezrahi, a politics professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

"It depends on his performance here, but he might carry the day," Ezrahi said.