A look into my 2011 free-agent predictions

I usually like to release my free-agent rankings and predictions - which I believe pre-date the blog - on the first day of open free agency. This year, that day will be Thursday. I think the feature is a nice way to kick off the unrestricted period, and I like using the days between the end of the World Series and open free agency to do more reporting on this.

So why are we running them today? 1) Sunday newspaper means both more space to fill and more prominent play for this, and 2) I'm going off the clock starting tomorrow, wanted to do this and didn't feel like dealing with it this week.

Besides, I think New York fans in particular are ready for this.

My explanation of this feature's timing reminds me of Troy McClure's explanation for his new project in this episode of "The Simpsons":

Anyway, here are the free-agent rankings.

As I write in the introduction, some of these are based on hard reporting, and some on glorified mind-reading. What the hell. It's a talker.

And just so you have an idea of which is which, I'll offer additional thoughts on some of the more high-profile guys:

Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, I saw this tweet from L.A. Times reporter Mike DiGiovanna, in which Angels owner Arte Moreno says the team's payroll will be in the $130-$140 million range. If he truly means that, then it'll be difficult for the club to sign Wilson. We'll see.

Right now, though? My hunch is that the Mets' offer won't be in the same neighborhood as other clubs. He should get six years from someone. Would the Mets go even five years? I don't think so.

That's why I went with the Marlins, who seem like they want to make a splash as they open their new ballpark. Hanley Ramirez can move from shortstop to third to accomodate his pal Reyes.

And the Mets? They'll survive. Again: Reyes was on the team in September, and Citi Field was a ghost town. At the stage where the Mets are, they can't be worrying about attendance. They have to worry about putting together a team that will consistently contend and draw fans that way.

It makes sense, by the way, that in this closer-rich market, someone will fall down to the Mets' level. Joe Nathan could prove to make sense.

Can you imagine Fielder and Jose Bautista sharing the middle of a Toronto lineup? Good Lord.

Whereas first base, just for conversation's sake, does.

The Yankees enjoyed having him and he enjoyed iptching for the Yankees, so maybe there's room here for a renewal of vows.

To me, it shows that closers aren't as irreplaceable as we perceive them to be. But I get it. Teams like to have someone they know and trust in the ninth inning.

Bell going back to San Diego was the easy one; he's made it pretty clear that he wants to return. I thought Papelbon going to the Phillies could happen because Papelbon's agents Sam and Seth Levinson have a good relationship with the Philadelphia people; they hammered out the Raul Ibanez contract a few years ago. 

K-Rod to the Reds is assuming that Cincinnati doesn't exercise Francisco Cordero's team option for 2012 and wants to spend some money. Madson to the Twins? Minnesota will look to get right back in contention and badly needs bullpen help, with Nathan and Matt Capps entering free agency.

--Have a great day, and see you down the road.