All-Star break grades for the Yankees and Mets

 It speaks as much to the teams and the personalities that run them, I think, as it does their actual conditions as we arrive at the All-Star break:

The Mets are generally optimistic, pointing to the arrival of Carlos Beltran and what indeed looks like an easy post-break schedule. The Mets tend to be overly optimistic. Their 2007 and 2008 collapses resulted, in large part, from an overly optimistic read of their own roster depth.

The Yankees...well, "pessimistic" is probably too strong a word, but there is definitely frustration about Cliff Lee falling through their hands. The Yankees tend to obsess about that very same issue of roster depth. Shoot, to repeat a point I've made before and will probably make again, a main reason for their 2006 playoff loss to Detroit was arguably that Joe Torre completely botched his roster and lineup management due to having too many established players.

Anyway, as we enjoy the break - and as the All-Star players partake in day-before activities today - let's issue midterm grades for our two local clubs.

I give the Yankees an A. Brian Cashman's 2009-10 winter has not borne much fruit at all. Curtis Granderson has disappointed, Nick Johnson has disappeared and Javier Vazquez's first month was so atrocious that two subsequent months of good-to-excellent work has him just a tad over replacement level. Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are both showing their age, A.J. Burnett is showing his inconsistency and Joba Chamberlain has raised doubts about his future as a big-league pitcher.

And yet...at 56-32, they own the best record in baseball. They have to be favored to repeat as World Series champions. Their immense payroll has never loomed larger, as they've made up for the aforementioned downers with the likes of Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes. 

Not bad. And yes, the Rays have climbed out of their stupor, and you never pronounce the Red Sox dead, but I don't see how the Yankees miss out on the playoffs. They have good moments coming from too many people.

I give the Mets a B+. Sure, there have been some characteristically, bone-headed moves, from the silly Alex Cora contract to the silly John Maine contract to allowing Mike Jacobs to so much as set foot in Queens County, to Jerry Manuel still treating favored relievers like chew toys that he uses beyond the point of recognition.

But my goodness, in a year when the Mets desperately needed to be relevant once more, they have accomplished that. So many pleasant developments, from the kids (Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada) to the rebirths (David Wright, Jose Reyes, Mike Pelfrey) to the under-the-radar surprises (R.A. Dickey, Hisanori Takahashi, Rod Barajas' first month-plus). The restraint they exhibited last winter, toward the less-than-remarkable group of free-agent pitchers, seems more admirable than overly cautious at this point.

Some of those pleasant developments are bound to hit walls post-break, and I'm not sure how many of the disappointments can right themselves. Really, what the Mets have going for them most of all is that schedule. They're going to be facing the Astros (seven games), Diamondbacks (six) and Pirates (seven) extensively  - 20 of their remaining 74 games, or 27 percent of their schedule - and those are three  teams that are bad now and, thanks to the trade deadline and the selling off of players in their walk years, figure to get only weaker by the time the Mets get them.

Throw in three games against the Cubs, four against Milwaukee, five against Florida and six against Washington, and that's a total of 38 of 74 games - 51.3 percent - against teams that currently have losing records.

(To put this in some perspective, Buster Olney ranks all of the schedules. Looks like Joe Torre has a challenging second half on his hands.)

So this post-break period will be defined by the Mets' ability to play ahead of their schedule. That principle applies to all teams, of course, but in this case, for the Mets, it would seem to mean they have some needed room for slippage.

Otherwise, looking at the standings, we wouldn't appear to have any runaway races. Here are your updated PECOTA playoff odds. PECOTA is less fond of the Mets than it was a week ago, but that's what makes them sort of fun, to me. They're a constant re-reading of the lay of the land, yet it reminds me of what Cashman said when he re-upped with the Yankees after the 2008 season, channeling Reggie Jackson: "When you have the bat in your hand, you can change the story."

--Here's my story from the Futures Game.

--The execution was messy, but Jerry Manuel is clearly making the right decision in seeding Jeff Francoeur fourth in the Beltran-induced outfield time share.

--Mark Herrmann wrote a great salute to Bob Sheppard. Some Yankees offered their reflections on Sheppard.

--Jason Bay rested on his own bobblehead day. What an odd and indisputably disappointing first half Bay put together. He is one person from whom the Mets can reasonably expect more.

--Mark Teixeira is finally playing like his old self.

--Anyone catch the 3-D broadcasts of the Yankees this weekend? Feedback? Neil Best seems to like them.

--Other stuff heard around the ballpark yesterday:

1) The Diamondbacks have been amused by the high number of scouts attending Dan Haren's starts. Haren isn't untouchable, but given his reasonable contract (scroll down), it would take a crazy offer to pry him away. The most likely Arizona players to be traded are Adam LaRoche and Chad Qualls.

Earlier in the season, when David Wright was striking out like a madman, we spoke of how the issue was being overplayed. How outs are outs, and as long as Wright was getting on base enough (which he was), his strikeout count was insignificant. Well, I still believe that, but what if you have five strikeout-heavy players in your lineup? That's what Arizona has, and team officials are trying to determine how serious a problem that is.

2) Ken Rosenthal reported a couple of days ago that Roy Oswalt wouldn't waive his no-trade clause to join the Tigers of White Sox. His reasoning? My understanding is that Oswalt doesn't view Detroit as a bona fide World Series contender, and that Jake Peavy's injury made the White Sox less appealing. Oswalt and Peavy are very close friends. There's concern that Peavy's injury, pretty much unprecedented, may be career-threatening.

Some in the industry wonder whether Astros owner Drayton McLane will drop his asking price on Oswalt by the end of the month, on either the dollars or the prospects. I don't know, seems to me that McLane's history speaks for itself: He thinks his team can make the playoffs every year. The 2011 Astros' best chance to make the playoffs is with Oswalt as its ace.

--All right, plenty going on today. News conferences with all of the players, as well as managers Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel. Then the interminable Home Run Derby tonight. I'll check in as much as I can.