Zoom out on the Mets’ miserable month and think about what was expected, in a big-picture sort of way, at the start of the season.
In year one under Steve Cohen, Sandy Alderson and Zack Scott, the Mets looked like a solid team, one that could make a run at the division and at least be in the wild-card picture. They weren’t a lock for the playoffs, but they had a good shot.
With eight weeks and 51 games to go, the Mets are . . . almost exactly that, even if they have taken the unanticipated path of being in first for so long.
As they enjoyed — or endured — a day off Monday, they were 56-55 and in third place in the NL East, only 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Phillies. Losses in nine of their past 11 games, including four in a row, have them headed in the wrong direction, so in a zoomed-in way it feels like the sky is falling.
"It’s just a trying time," Pete Alonso said Sunday. "This is an excellent test for us. And to be honest, we’ve had a lot of games in a row. This off day that we get [Monday] is going to be huge. Recharge the batteries, recharge the mind, physically and mentally, and get back at it on Tuesday."
The Mets get back at it against the Nationals, whose front office gave up on the season last month, before beginning a potentially season-defining stretch: 13 consecutive games against NL West powers, the Dodgers and Giants.
How did the Mets get to this point? Here are a few reasons — not for their recent slump, but for their overall mediocrity more than two-thirds into the season.
Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco have combined for 100 1/3 innings
Jacob deGrom, left, and Noah Syndergaard at Citi Field on July 26, 2021. Credit: Jim McIsaac
That breaks down to deGrom for 92, Carrasco for 8 1/3 and Syndergaard for zero, unfortunate totals for three pitchers who were supposed to be leading the rotation.
Injuries have touched all corners of the Mets’ roster, starting pitchers included.
DeGrom was running away with what would have been his third NL Cy Young Award until a fifth, and then a sixth, injury sidelined him indefinitely. Elbow inflammation has him out until at least September. His 1.08 ERA doesn’t do the Mets any good if he’s not on the mound.
Carrasco entered spring training with the best track record of any healthy Mets starter other than deGrom. But a torn hamstring cost him the first two months, and a setback cost him two more months.
Syndergaard was expected back in June. But issues with his rehab from Tommy John surgery delayed him in a big way, and now he’s out until September, too.
Altogether, they could have thrown, if totally healthy, around 300 innings by now. But they haven’t come close.
If those three were their regular selves, Taijuan Walker’s second-half regression wouldn’t matter. Marcus Stroman would be the best No. 4 starter in the league. Tylor Megill wouldn’t be in the majors, and Rich Hill wouldn’t be in the organization.
| PITCHER | IP AS A STARTER | % OF STARTER INNINGS | % OF TOTAL TEAM IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 127 | 23.6% | 13.6% |
| Taijuan Walker | 111 | 20.7% | 11.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | 92 | 17.1% | 9.8% |
| David Peterson | 66 2/3 | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Tylor Megill | 45 | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| Joey Lucchesi | 31 1/3 | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | 17 | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Rich Hill | 15 | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | 8 1/3 | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Robert Stock | 5 | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Corey Oswalt | 4 | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Yamamoto | 4 | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Aaron Loup | 3 | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Robert Gsellman | 2 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Tommy Hunter | 2 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Drew Smith | 2 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Miguel Castro | 2 | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Noah Syndergaard | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The farm system is just OK
And that significantly impacted the Mets’ trade-deadline flexibility.
When Cohen bought the Mets, he also got a group of prospects considered middling overall. Yes, they have Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio and Brett Baty and others, but after the top tier there isn’t much.
The Yankees, comparatively, are considered to have less high-end minor-league talent but more depth. They used that depth to add two important hitters, Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo, who have spurred a hot week-plus since.
One day, the Mets hope, they will use some prospects that way. This time, they convinced themselves to part with Pete Crow-Armstrong to get Javier Baez (and Trevor Williams) from the Cubs. That hasn’t moved the needle on the Mets’ season, at least not in a good way. Baez has struggled in nine games and now is dealing with a left hip issue.
The Mets would have liked to do more.
"The more depth you have, the better position you are in to make some deals," Scott said after the trade deadline. "You saw some teams with some deep farm systems that were able to package multiple players to get the things that they wanted to do. The sellers just didn’t see that opportunity with us at times.
"But I’m confident we’re going to have a really good farm system going forward. It doesn’t happen overnight. We have the buds of a really good farm system, in my mind. We have some really good players. We’re going to continue to grow that."
A farm system is more than its first-round draft choices, but here are the Mets’ since 2014, when they picked Michael Conforto:
2015: None
2016: Justin Dunn (traded) and Anthony Kay (traded)
2017: David Peterson
2018: Jarred Kelenic (traded)
2019: Brett Baty
2020: Pete Crow-Armstrong (traded)
2021: Kumar Rocker (didn’t sign)
The offense has totally stunk
OK, fine, a reason the Mets are slumping now is a reason they are mediocre this year.
The dearth of scoring is mystifying. They average 3.75 runs per game, second-worst in the majors behind the Pirates. The NL East leading Phillies rank 13th in MLB at 4.62 runs per game, and Atlanta, a half-game ahead of the Mets going into Monday night, ranks ninth at 4.81 runs.
The standings in the NL East after games of Sunday, Aug. 8, 2021.
The offense in 2020, remember, was by some measures one of the best in the majors and the best in franchise history. This year, with most of the same players, it is awful.
Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto and James McCann have had poor seasons. Jeff McNeil has been better but not as good as he usually is. Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis have been good or great when healthy.
But even Alonso is 0-for-his-last-21 (albeit with eight walks).
"I’m not necessarily the only one that’s going through it right now," he said. "It’s not like we’re not putting the ball in play hard. We’re really stinging the baseball. Balls are coming out of the box hot. It’s just, collectively as a group, it’s been really tough to find hits."
