The pros and cons of dealing Reyes
New York Mets' Jose Reyes reacts after hitting an RBI-single during the sixth inning of an inter-league baseball game against the Oakland Athletics at Citi Field in New York. The Mets won the game 4-1. (June 23, 2011) Credit: AP
The phone calls and texts from the Dominican Republic are only going to increase in frequency for Jose Reyes in the coming weeks, right up to the final minutes before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Every team Reyes is linked to means another beep or buzz from his cellphone, but the shortstop's reply is virtually the same.
"I have a lot of friends down there call me and ask what's going on," Reyes said. "They say they heard some rumors about the Mets trading me to the Giants, the Red Sox and a couple of other teams. I tell them I can't control that. I tell those people that the only thing I can control right now is to stay healthy on the field, continue to play hard and help this team to win."
Even general manager Sandy Alderson, the person who does control Reyes' intriguing situation, is unable to answer definitively at this point. Despite the Mets' lean toward keeping Reyes -- he's the spark of a .500 team still alive in the wild-card race -- there's no telling what kind of trade scenarios could present themselves.
That said, here are a few of the factors that will weigh into Alderson's decision:
PROS
1. Trading Reyes could yield a top prospect.
Judging by this month's draft, when Alderson & Co. selected a pair of high school players with their top two picks, this is not a group that's thinking about immediate gratification. That mind-set, combined with serious financial concerns, will compel the Mets to look for low-to-zero service time talent in a three-to-four player package for Reyes. Sure, Reyes is only a rental. But the market for him could get very competitive with a number of bunched-up teams looking for a big move to distance themselves from the pack. For deep organizations, trading off a future star will be easier to explain if Reyes winds up the MVP of a championship season. Last July, the Mariners traded Cliff Lee for the Rangers' top prospect, Justin Smoak, a 24-year-old switch-hitting first baseman compared to Mark Teixeira. The Rangers made it to the World Series, and a year later, Smoak has 12 homers and 40 RBIs through 71 games with Seattle.
2. It would help prepare for life without Reyes.
If the Mets do fall out of contention -- a 41/2-game deficit for the wild card is a slippery slope -- Alderson can get an early jump on evaluating how his roster will compensate for the absence of Reyes in the short term as well as 2012 and beyond. For starters, Ruben Tejada is capable of one day becoming a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop. If the Mets slide him over to replace Reyes, that will give them an extended opportunity to see if he will continue to mature at the plate. As for the leadoff spot, Angel Pagan is best suited for that role as a switch hitter with speed, and batting atop the order should get him better pitches to hit rather than where he mostly is now -- in front of the struggling Jason Bay. Pagan has a career .305 average and .348 on-base percentage in 125 games hitting leadoff.
3. A fresh start and new course for the organization.
From a philosophical standpoint, Alderson is not interested in setting markets for players. The GM immediately showed his disdain for it during last December's winter meetings by taking a jab at the Nationals for signing Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126-million deal. Add to that Fred Wilpon's desire to lower the Mets' payroll into the $100-million range, and trading Reyes would represent a seismic shift in the way the Mets do business. That's not to say the franchise won't spend money in the future; it's just an indicator that the roster won't be built around one or two mega-contracts, leaving Johan Santana (seven years, $137.5 million) as the last dinosaur moving forward.
"This organization wants to give the opportunity to younger guys," said Carlos Beltran, who is more likely to be traded than Reyes. "But at the end of the day, we don't know what's going to happen here. We don't know what direction they're going to take."
CONS
1. There's no replacing Reyes.
The Mets were denied last week in their attempt to talk parameters of a contract extension with Reyes, but there's no point in subsequently dealing him out of spite. Even as a long shot to make the postseason, the Mets possess one of the game's most entertaining players, and there is value to that -- both on and off the field. Heading into the Tigers' series, which begins Tuesday at Comerica Park, Reyes was hitting .341 with a .385 on-base percentage. He's also leading the majors in triples (14) and multi-hit games (39) and was second in stolen bases (28) to the Astros' Michael Bourn. Reyes is a slam-dunk All-Star and a serious MVP candidate, regardless of where the Mets finish in the standings. As badly as the Mets' offense has struggled at times, removing Reyes would be fatal. Not to mention the backlash among the fan base, which has sounded a steady drumbeat to keep Reyes, despite the long odds of re-signing him.
"It's a little different with Sandy because he's trying to develop something with the Mets long term," said former Mets GM Jim Duquette, now a baseball analyst for MLB Network Radio and Sirius/XM. "The bottom line is that if you have a good team on the field, that's always been the determining factor [for fans]. But that's a tough sell, to say you're going to get better without Reyes. You can't say it with a straight face."
2. 'White flag' to clubhouse.
Actions speak louder than words, and there probably isn't much Terry Collins could say to rally the remaining Mets if Reyes is traded by the deadline. Collins has done a great job connecting with the clubhouse, as well as getting some players to overachieve. But his messages will ring hollow if Alderson chooses to deal Reyes out from under him. A Mets official said this week that the possibility of trading Reyes really has not been discussed internally. But if things ever escalated to that point, it likely would have to be explained to the players, or at the very least, addressed in some fashion. Building for the future is not a slogan that resonates with players in July if they have to look forward to what could be a meaningless final two months.
3. Returning after being traded highly unlikely.
Even with Reyes determined to test free agency, no matter where he finishes the season, Alderson has admitted that it's unlikely he'd re-sign with the Mets if he were traded.
"It's happened on occasion, but it would be silly to rely on the notion that it would happen," Alderson said. "Or that it even could happen."
Mike Bordick returned to the Orioles as a free agent after the Mets acquired him in 2000, costing them Melvin Mora in the process, but that rarely occurs, and not with an elite-level player. Pride may be a factor in that -- a bridge might be burned with such a move. In any event, Alderson believes that would eliminate any hope the Mets have of retaining Reyes, something that no one wants to rule out at the moment.
"Most of the time, teams just wait it out," Duquette said, "thinking they're better off taking the draft picks. You don't want to be known as the guy that traded the MVP. But you also don't want to be known as the guy that couldn't sign the guy that had the MVP season. It's a tough spot."
