Thoughts on Joe Girardi, and more on the AL Cy Young race

First, your updated playoff seedings:

AL: Tampa Bay (1) vs. Texas (3), Minnesota (2) vs. Yankees (4)

NL: Philadelphia (1) vs. San Diego (3), Cincinnati (2) vs. Atlanta (4)

Thoughts: The Rangers had at least two scouts at last night's Yankees-Rays series. That's one of the fun parts of this Yankees-Rays race; because it's so close, all four AL playoff teams have to prepare equally for two opponents. The Rangers and Twins have to plan to play either the Yankees or Rays, and the Yankees and Rays must monitor Texas and Minnesota.

So when the Yankees and Rays play each other, as they do this week and next week, at least the Rangers' and Twins' scouts can maybe pick up a hotel group rate or something.

--Those scouts saw a fantastic Yankees-Rays game last night, and I admit - it's because of games like last night that I love the expanded September rosters. Yes, it's highly illogical, but I love watching all of the machinations, and that Joe Maddon can lift his DH in the ninth inning - Dioner Navarro pinch-hit for DH Willy Aybar in the eighth and then, with Desmond Jennings pinch-running for starting catcher Kelly Shoppach in the same inning, Navarro switched over to catcher - knowing that he has plenty of position players to pinch hit for the pitchers.

I wrote about the obvious storyline, the Yankees' decision not to use Joba Chamberlain or David Robertson, and to save Mariano Rivera for the save that never came.

I get resting Chamberlain and Robertson. If they both pitch tonight (assuming the game situation calls for their presence), then we can believe the Yankees that there are no health issues and move on. What I don't get is going to Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre - neither of whom is likely to even be on the Yankees' postseason roster - over Rivera.

Joe Girardi's and Dave Eiland's explanations matched each other: They wanted to use Rivera for just one inning, and they wanted that one inning to be with the lead, rather than with the game tied. Because if they put him into a tie game, as was the case Friday night, then they'd be tempted to throw Rivera for two innings.

To which I say: It's not like there's a rule that Rivera has to pitch two innings. You can just throw him one inning, then remove him from the game and see where the game takes you. After all, wouldn't you rather utilize an inferior pitcher like Gaudin or Mitre with the cushion of a one-run lead, rather than with no room for error?

Girardi has been managing the Yankees for three seasons now, and I think it's safe to conclude he's just not that strong an in-game tactician. He's good at roster management, but not game management, IMO.

We were all scratching our heads when, with Austin Kearns on first and no outs in the 11th, Curtis Granderson bunted Kearns over to second - to put a runner in scoring position for, um, rookie Colin Curtis, who didn't shock the world by flying out to centerfield.

The post-game media session was tense. Girardi's face was so tight, I couldn't come up with a simile or metaphor to do it justice. He didn't like answering questions about the bullpen. He didn't like answering questions about Brett Gardner's foolish decision to try to steal third in the 10th. He snapped at Kim Jones, on-camera, when she lobbed him a softball question about the team bouncing back from such a loss.

It made one wonder, do nights like last night make Girardi think, "Forget this racket - I'm going to Chicago"? Maybe, but it's not like there won't be tough losses with the Cubs. And he won't have a never-ending payroll, and he can't know for sure how he's going to get along with ownership and the front office.

Which is why I still think that Girardi will return to the Yankees after this season. But he somehow needs to improve with the in-game stuff. The media stuff? It is what it is. I don't think he's ever going to be fully comfortable with it, and it doesn't have great consequence. Although, as Joe Torre could tell Girardi, strong media relations can buy you some goodwill.

--Tremendous outing last night for CC Sabathia, against an excellent offensive team. But he didn't get the win. so it shouldn't help him in the AL Cy Young race, right? Same goes for Tampa Bay's David Price.

Sorry, but this AL Cy Young debate is starting to drive me a little batty. I can't get over how many people in the yakosphere (copyright Neil Best) simply want to dismiss Felix Hernandez's marvelous season because of his won-loss record and because he hasn't pitched in "big games."

First of all, what constitutes a "big game"? Didn't the Mariners play in "big games" in the first couple of months of the season, when they considered themselves World Series contenders? And what about King Felix's recent games against contending teams? Weren't those "big games" for the opponents?

Second of all, it's not Hernandez's fault that his team has been gad-awful. I have a hard time penalizing him for that, especially when there's nothing on the Cy Young ballot about a team's standing.

What's on the Cy Young ballot? Glad you asked. JE alerted me yesterday that Tom Tango challenged "some brave writer" to share the instructions on the Cy Young ballot. I don't consider myself particularly brave - I've never gone bungee-jumping, hang-gliding or skydiving - but I did know who to e-mail for this: BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O'Connell.

"There are no specific instructions," O'Connell wrote me. "Voters are asked to select the pitcher they think had the best season."

Well, there you go, then.

OK, getting back to some arguments, there's the notion that Sabathia, still at 19 wins, simply "knows how to win" better than Hernandez. Um, no. As you can see here in Geoff Baker's strong breakdown, King Felix has performed better than Sabathia in low-scoring games.

Finally - and I'm focusing on Sabathia because I work in New York, and because his win total makes him a focal person in this debate. I understand that Sabathia and Hernandez aren't the only two candidates- there's the argument that, because he pitches in the AL East, Sabathia has a much tougher schedule than Hernandez.

So here's what I did. I got the game logs for Sabathia and Hernandez and matched them up against each other. Then I looked at teams' offensive rankings in baseball, and going start by start, I assigned a number value to each team's rankings. Because the Yankees have scored the most runs in baseball, they get a "1" when we count Hernandez's starts against them. Because the Mariners have scored the fewest runs in baseball, they get a "30" when Sabathia starts against them.

Overly dramatic? Probably. After all, the Yankees haven't scored 30 times as many runs as the Mariners. But I do think those in the pro-Sabathia camp contend that it's so much harder to pitch in the AL East, so this reflects that thinking. By this system, the lower your score, the tougher your schedule has been.

Moreover, I understand that a pitcher can catch a "bad" offensive team when it's having a good week, but I think it should even out the other way.

Here's Sabathia's season, start by start, with the opponent's offensive ranking in parentheses:

1: 4/4 at Boston (3)
2: 4/10 at Tampa Bay (2)
3: 4/16 vs. Texas (5)
4: 4/22 at Oakland (24)
5: 4/28 at Baltimore (28)
6: 5/3 vs. Baltimore (28)
7: 5/8 at Boston (3)
8: 5/13 at Detroit (14)
9: 5/18 vs. Boston (3)
10: 5/23 at Mets (25)
11: 5/29 vs. Cleveland (26)
12: 6/3 vs. Baltimore (28)
13: 6/9 at Baltimore (28)
14: 6/15 vs. Philadelphia (9)
15: 6/20 vs. Mets (25)
16: 6/25 at Dodgers (20)
17: 7/1 vs. Seattle (30)
18: 7/6 at Oakland (24)
19: 7/11 at Seattle (30)
20: 7/16: vs. Tampa Bay (2)
21: 7/22 vs. Kansas City (23)
22: 7/27 at Cleveland (26)
23: 8/1 at Tampa Bay (2)
24: 8/7 vs. Boston (3)
25: 8/12 at Kansas City (23)
26: 8/17 vs. Detroit (14)
27: 8/22 vs. Seattle (30)
28: 8/28 at White Sox (10)
29: 9/2 vs. Oakland (24)
30: 9/7 vs. Baltimore (28)

31: 9/13 at Tampa Bay (2)

So Sabathia's total "strength of schedule" score is 542.

And now here's Hernandez's slate:

1. 4/5 at Oakland (24)
2: 4/10 at Texas (5)
3: 4/16 vs. Detroit (14)
4: 4/21 vs. Baltimore (27)
5: 4/26 at Kansas City (24)
6: 5/1 vs. Texas (5)
7: 5/7 vs. Angels (19)
8: 5/13 at Baltimore (28)
9: 5/18 at Oakland (24)
10: 5/23 vs. San Diego (21)
11: 5/29 at Angels (19)
12: 6/3 vs. Minnesota (6)
13: 6/8 at Texas (5)
14: 6/13 at San Diego (21)
15: 6/19 vs. Cincinnati (4)
16: 6/24 vs. Cubs (18)
17: 6/30 at Yankees (1)
18: 7/5 vs. Kansas City (23)
19: 7/10 vs. Yankees (1)
20: 7/16 at Angels (19)
21: 7/21 vs. White Sox (10)
22: 7/26 at White Sox (10)
23: 7/31 at Minnesota (6)
24: 8/5 vs. Texas (5)
25: 8/10 vs. Oakland (24)
26: 8/15 at Cleveland (26)
27: 8/20 at Yankees (1)
28: 8/25 at Boston (3)
29: 8/31 vs. Angels (19)
30: 9/5 vs. Cleveland (26)          

31: 9/11 at Angels (19)

So Hernandez's strength-of-schedule score is 457.

If you break it down, you can see that Sabathia has made 11 starts against upper-tier offensive teams (in the top 10), while Hernandez has made 12. And Sabathia has made 18 starts - 18! - against lower-tier offensive teams (in the bottom 10), while Hernandez has made 11.

--Francisco Rodriguez is due back in court today, and what happens in his criminal case could have bearing on his "baseball" case of the Mets trying to make his contract non-guaranteed. If Rodriguez has a conviction, or a plea, that gives the Mets some leverage. Alas, the timing might not work out, if the independent arbitrator Shyam Das hears the Mets vs. K-Rod case before Queens fully expedites its criminal case against the reliever.

--Live chat tomorrow at noon. The only controversy bigger than the AL Cy Young is this blog's Live Chat MVP, so you won't want to miss that.

--I'll check in later from the Trop.

--UPDATE, 12:11 p.m.: Bad day for K-Rod. Wow. As Jim Baumbach reports, he's in greater trouble with Queens Criminal Court for violating his restraining order.