5th starter shouldn't be a headache for Joe Girardi

If Joe Girardi wants to save himself some headaches this spring, he shouldn't worry too much about the battle for the Yankees' fifth starter spot. It might not be as simple as throwing on a blindfold and playing eenie-meenie-miney-Mo-Rivera. But either way he goes, Girardi is likely to get somewhat similar production from the winner.

All reports indicate A.J. Burnett is headed to Pittsburgh -- and we're sure he'll make a heck of a Pie-rate (had to do it). That means the Yankees' primary gladiators for the final starting spot are Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia.

One is a much-hyped prospect who has struggled to find sustained starting success in the majors, possessing tantalizing stuff to be sure, but with sub-par results. The other is a smart, “grizzled” veteran who took a three-year career detour due to injury and posted results last season that most believe are an over-achievement based on the pedestrian quality of his offerings.

Yet either should prove suitable for the 2012 rotation.

Hughes largely disappointed last season after a solid 2010 campaign, going just 5-5 with an ugly 5.79 ERA in 17 games (14 starts). He allowed 16 runs in 10 1/3 innings to start the year before an extended stay on the disabled list with a "tired arm." He returned on July 6 and showed improvement, allowing two earned runs or less in eight of his 11 starts. But those other three starts were clunkers to be sure and he still posted a queasy 4.67 ERA after returning from the DL.

Garcia, meanwhile, enjoyed somewhat of a renaissance, going 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA. He allowed three runs or less in 19 of his 25 starts while posting his lowest ERA since 2001.

The numbers behind these numbers, however, suggest that we should expect some improvement from Hughes and some regression from Garcia.

SEE PHOTOSYankees Opening Day starters

The big stat is this: Hughes posted just a 65.4 percent Left On Base percentage, well below the 70-72 percent league average. Left On Base percentage, or Strand Rate, was invented by baseball analyst Ron Shandler to further illustrate the role lucks plays in stats like ERA. Pitchers whose numbers exceed or are well below that average tend to see their future results rise or fall back to the mean as their luck evens out. That's not just good news for Hughes, though. It's also bad news for Garcia, who posted a 77.1 percent LOB.

Also, Garcia will be 35 at the start of next season, while Hughes—despite several seasons in the majors—will still be just 25. It's not out of this world to expect improvement from Hughes, who was once referred to as a Mark Prior type of talent and was thought to be capable of ace-like production. It's also not a stretch to imagine decline from Garcia as age gets the better of him.

But beyond some regression to the mean and the weight of expectations, both good and bad, Hughes and Garcia had similar tendencies in 2011. Both right handers were fly ball pitchers (45.2 percent fly balls from Hughes, 41.3 from Garcia). Both gave up about the same percentage of home runs. Even their strikeout and walk rates were fairly comparable last season: 5.67 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9 for Hughes and 5.89 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 for Garcia.

Stat Godfather Bill James projects Hughes to go 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA in 102 innings this season. He projects Garcia to go 8-8 with a 4.25 ERA in 144 innings. Both projections have their benefits -- Hughes' ERA, Garcia's innings and wins -- but neither is likely to be a drag on the team's rotation.

And that's the bottom line here. Whichever way the Yankees go, the fifth starter's spot is likely to be one of the most productive in baseball. The fifth starter is a slot that can see many tenants throughout a season with varying levels of talent. Either Garcia or Hughes would likely be one of the top fifth starters in baseball.

Cody Derespina's "The Numbers Game" is a Newsday app-only exclusive.