After conference shakeup, Big Ten still a threat to Big East
The templates in college athletics shifted a month ago when Nebraska bolted the Big 12 to join the Big Ten and the Pac-10 poached Colorado from the Big 12 and later took Utah from the Mountain West. For a few anxious days, it appeared the Big 12 might collapse, and the Big East threatened to follow suit because of the domino effect.
So, when Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe succeeded in preventing Texas and four other schools from leaving for the Pac-10 or SEC, he received a thank you from Big East commissioner John Marinatto, a bouquet of 10 red roses and 10 white roses and a card that simply read: "Unity."
For the moment, at least, it seems the worst is over, and the damage to traditional alliances has been contained. "A lot of people are breathing a sigh of relief that the landscape hasn't changed more than it has," one college TV industry source said to Newsday.
In those days when the Pac-10 was moving aggressively to recruit Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to form a 16-team superconference, the Big East was left on the defensive. There was discussion about adding four Big 12 schools -- Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State -- to create a 12-team football league and as a hedge against attempts by the Big Ten and ACC to steal away other Big East football schools. The SEC approached Texas A&M and Oklahoma about joining its conference and might also have considered raiding the ACC.
Now that the earth has stopped moving, everyone is watching for the Big Ten's next move. As far as anyone can tell, Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany is back on his original timetable, which calls for a decision on further expansion in the next six months to one year. It's well-known that Rutgers is a potential target because Fox Sports, which owns 49 percent of the Big Ten Network, wants a foothold in the New York metro area market. Pitt and Syracuse are other possible Big East targets.
"The Big Ten is the only shadow threatening [the Big East] at this time," the college TV source said. "But there are a lot of conversations taking place on the side, and you don't know what's going to happen."
If anything, the recent upheaval gave college athletic administrators a sample of the complexity associated with expansion leading to the formation of four 16-team super conferences. Some might assume that would provide a windfall for sports networks, but the web of current contracts and the competitive interests of various networks are so intricate that, in many ways, the status quo is preferable to them.
That's what saved the Big 12. ESPN and Fox both committed to not reducing revenue to the Big 12 because of the loss of two teams, and they assured Beebe of improved revenue in the future. Another key ingredient was the conference's decision to give Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma a bigger share of revenue because of their market value.
Had the Pac-10 expanded significantly, ESPN would have been forced to renegotiate its deal with that conference, and it would have seen Big 12 basketball disappear from its schedule. Fox also has a share of Pac-10 football, but it faced a threat from Comcast in Texas and wanted to make sure FSN Houston still had access to games for those schools that might have been shifted to the new Pac-10 network now being formed.
Ultimately, TV interests control expansion. The Big Ten's Delany has generated a reported $20 million per school and wants to expand the reach of the BTN to include more cable subscribers for higher fees. Yet, he had to give a discount to Comcast to get it to carry the BTN in the Philadelphia market despite the presence of Penn State. Will Rutgers really provide an opening to the New York market if Penn State can't draw a premium in Philadelphia?
"Think how much revenue you have to add to feed another mouth when you expand," the TV source said. "You've got to be really careful, really sure it's worth it."
That financial reality might be the best line of defense for Big East survival.
