Big East imperiled in football, basketball if Big Ten, other big leagues expand

If Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany executes his master plan for expansion, the lid will be off Pandora's box in college athletics. The landscape will change drastically, and the Big East Conference might be among the casualties if its Bowl Championship Series football schools leave, reverting to its roots as a basketball league.

Survival will be the major topic at the Big East meeting May 24 in Ponte Vedra, Fla. According to Delany's timetable, the Big Ten's expansion decision will come between December and next May. So all BCS conferences must prepare now.

With its $100-million deal with ABC-ESPN plus the revenue generated by the Big Ten Network, the Big Ten is the richest conference, generating a reported $22 million annually for each of its 11 members. But Delany believes more is possible if expansion adds to the BTN's current base of 30 million regional cable TV subscribers.

"They're not expanding to make $23 million [per school],'' a college TV industry source told Newsday. "You're not going to all this trouble and spreading yourself thinner and dividing the pie into more pieces unless you're making significantly more money. I'm guessing, but unless they can get their schools 30 percent more per year or the possibility to get there within a couple of years, I wouldn't be doing this.''

According to a published report, the Big Ten most likely is targeting football independent Notre Dame, Missouri of the Big 12 and Pitt, Rutgers and Syracuse of the Big East with the intention of going to 16 teams. All indications are Notre Dame intends to remain independent, in which case Big 12 Nebraska could be included.

In various "doomsday'' scenarios, the fallout ultimately could result in four 16-team superconferences that might withdraw from the NCAA to stage their own football and basketball tournaments. BCS executive director Bill Hancock said that's much easier said than done. He noted that school presidents have resisted a football tournament in the past, support the current bowl system because it provides postseason opportunity for many more schools and just signed a lucrative new NCAA basketball deal.

"We could have a playoff tomorrow, but at a great loss to the game because the regular- season value could be diminished, and the bowls as we know them would go away,'' Hancock said. But, Hancock added: "Expansion is a very real possibility. No other conference has the market the Big Ten has. The SEC relies on CBS and ESPN. They might do better with more teams.''

The key to the equation is that a conference must have enough product to support a TV network. Big East commissioner John Marinatto said his league will explore forming its own network after its current TV contracts run out.

But with eight football schools, the Big East has only 56 conference games plus its non-conference home games. That's not enough product for a network because several of those games go to TV partners CBS and ESPN. Contrast that with the 16-team Big East basketball conference, which has 144 conference games. No other conference has even 100.

The success of any conference cable network depends on being on the primary tier as opposed to a premium service. "The Big Ten Network is more valuable on the 'free' tier than it would be on pay-per-view,'' Marinatto said. "If cable ever goes to a la carte pricing, that would change the dynamics.''

Until that happens, here is the conundrum facing the Big East: If it loses three teams, it not only must replace them to remain viable as a BCS football conference but also would have to add more football schools to form its own TV network.

Three schools widely rumored as Big East replacements are Memphis, Central Florida and East Carolina. Big East member Villanova, which plays football in the Colonial Athletic Association, also might upgrade to BCS football.

But what if more dominoes fall? "Does it make more sense to replace teams that leave,'' the college TV source asked, "or do the remaining others fend for themselves someplace else? Who's to say the SEC has to wait for the Big Ten to expand? It sure has everybody anxious.''

If Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida and UConn decide to join the SEC or Atlantic Coast Conference, the Big East would drop out of the BCS and become a basketball conference. Notre Dame, in the Big East in all sports but football, might stay with St. John's, Seton Hall, Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Marquette and DePaul, and the Big East likely would invite Xavier and Dayton from the Atlantic 10, with St. Joseph's and Fordham as outside possibilities.

"Certainly the Big East would be the strongest basketball-only league,'' the college TV source said, "but what they could negotiate in terms of TV dollars and number of games without having football would be compromised.''

In a football-driven world, the cards are stacked against the Big East.