Robert Griffin III likely to adjust well to NFL
While there have certainly been duds among Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks, Robert Griffin III is likely to make a successful transition to the NFL. Credit: AP
One of college football's brightest stars has officially cast the die on his career.
Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III has announced he will enter the NFL draft—meaning we can now debate what kind of pro-football legacy awaits the Baylor quarterback. Will the future be bright for RG3? Or will his NFL days be as abbreviated as his popular moniker?
As always, we look to the past for guidance. So let's start here: how have the previous 10 Heisman winning quarterbacks to make the leap fared?
This query takes us all the way back to 1989 because, while that time span gives us 14 QBs who won the award, not all of them ever started a game in the NFL.
Jason White (2003 award winner from Oklahoma) wasn't even selected in the draft. He was eventually signed as an undrafted free agent by Tennessee, but decided to quit. Eric Crouch (2001, Nebraska) was drafted as a receiver, but injury forced him to leave the team. He later signed with Kansas City and spent some time in NFL Europe as a safety before going on to a stint with the CFL. Charlie Ward (1993, Florida State) decided to play basketball with the Knicks. Gino Torretta (1992, Miami) didn't throw a pass in an NFL game until 1996, when he went 5-for-16 with a touchdown and an interception. That would prove to be the highlight of his career.
With those exceptions out of the way, we now have a list of 10 QBs (small sample size alert!!!) who were drafted and started a game their rookie season: Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Troy Smith, Matt Leinart, Carson Palmer, Chris Weinke, Danny Wuerffel, Ty Detmer and Andre Ware. Now obviously the superior performance of a Newton or Bradford is going to drag the list upward. But for every bright spot, there's a Ware or Wuerffel to even things out.
Looking solely at their rookie seasons, this group averaged a 57.4 completion percentage and 0.96 touchdowns-per-interception. For some reference, that's actually pretty good. The average rookie over the last 10 years (large sample size!!!) has a 55.0 completion percentage and far inferior rate of 0.69 touchdowns-per-interception.
So whether or not you believe in some kind of NFL-Heisman jinx, by-and-large the players who've ended up playing in the NFL have been at least slightly better than the average rookie.
But RG3 will likely benefit from a few other things. For one, Heisman voters seem to be getting a lot better at picking NFL-ready quarterbacks than they used to. The worst of the 10 Heisman winners we looked at almost exclusively were the oldest to earn the award.
Ware (1989 Heisman winner) only managed four years in the pros, ending up with a 3-3 record, five touchdowns and eight interceptions. Detmer (1990) had a seven-year career, largely as a backup, during which he went 11-14. Wuerffel (1996) compiled a 4-6 record in six seasons. Weinke (2000) started 15 games his rookie season before starting just five more over the next four years.
But then things pick up. Palmer (2002) was a very good quarterback on some very bad Cincinnati teams before being traded to Oakland this season. Leinart, for as much as he failed to live up to the huge hype that surrounded his college days, is still hanging around the league (albeit, currently injured and solely as a backup). Smith (2006) was forgettable for Baltimore, but Tebow (2007), Bradford (2008) and Newton (2010) can all be deemed NFL success stories.
Additionally, rookies in general seem to be on an upward trend when it comes to starting in the NFL. In 2002, rookie QBs started 52 games, completing just 51.8 percent of their passes, throwing 55 total touchdowns and 66 interceptions. Those numbers have steadily been on the rise.
In 2011, rookie QBs started 61 games, completing 56.5 percent of their passes and throwing 72 touchdowns and 59 interceptions.
Of course there is one area where RG3, a junior, is bucking the trend. Of the 10 QBs profiled here, five weren't seniors when they won the Heisman. Bradford, Tebow, Leinart and Detmer all went back to school, making their NFL debuts after at least another season of learning and conditioning.
The only one who didn't? Ware. Not exactly the kind of guy whose career path you want as an example.
Having second thoughts now, Robert? The admissions office is to your left.
