Islanders center Jean-Gabriel Pageau puts Edmonton Oilers defenseman Ryan Shea...

Islanders center Jean-Gabriel Pageau puts Edmonton Oilers defenseman Ryan Shea up against the glass in the first period at UBS Arena on Oct. 31, 2026. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke

This might be low-hanging fruit in terms of a hot take, but the Islanders have gotten deep enough into the season for progress not to be judged solely on whether they perform well, which they have more often than not.

Fifteen games in, the Islanders need to start winning more to give themselves a realistic shot at the playoffs.

“Right away,” captain Bo Horvat told Newsday about translating strong games into two points. “It seems like every game we’re playing good hockey, and I think that’s the frustrating part when you don’t get the results behind it. We can only control what we can control, and those kinds of mental lapses sometimes are costing us. But we’re in every single game. I feel like we’ve given ourselves a chance to win 15 games.”

The Islanders (7-6-2) will conclude a three-game homestand against the Devils on Saturday night at UBS Arena before opening a three-game California swing. The Devils (11-5-0) are in second place in the Metropolitan Division and have won three straight since acquiring goalie Connor Hellebuyck from the Jets.

The homestand opened with a 4-0 loss to the Pacific Division-leading Oilers, but the game was scoreless in the second period. Then the defending Stanley Cup champion Hurricanes beat the Islanders, 5-3, on Thursday night with two goals late in the third period, including an empty-netter.

“The process is good,” coach Pete DeBoer said after Friday’s practice at Northwell Health Ice Center in East Meadow. “I like the process. I like where we’re going.”

There have been quality wins, notably a 4-3 overtime victory in Minnesota on Oct. 29, but the Islanders haven’t won in regulation since Oct. 20, a span of seven games. Six of the Islanders’ last 10 games have been one-goal decisions.

“The Edmonton game, I didn’t really like our game,” Jean-Gabriel Pageau told Newsday. “But I thought [Thursday] night we did a lot of good things. We had four breakaways, two-on-ones, a lot of chances on our side. To do that against one of the best defensive teams shows us that when we trust our system and trust the way we’re playing that things will come out of it. Keep buying in and keep working the same way and the results will come.”

For playoff purposes, they’d better. The Islanders haven’t qualified since 2024 and haven’t won a round since 2021.

Going into the weekend, the Islanders are fifth in the Metropolitan Division, four points behind the Panthers for the Eastern Conference’s final wild-card spot.

It’s reasonable to argue that, within an 84-game schedule, there is a looooonnnnnggggg way to go. Because there is.

But in the salary-cap era since 2005, more than 75% of teams holding a playoff spot on Thanksgiving have gone on to qualify for the postseason. That’s three weeks from now.

Horvat is not ready to start eyeing the standings just yet.

“This early, it’s tough to do,” he said. “There’s still so much hockey left. I know everybody says the American Thanksgiving, that kind of timeline. But for us, it’s just one game at a time. We can’t be looking too far ahead, thinking, ‘We’ve got to win this one or our season’s over.’ If you get into that, then you start getting into your own head.”

“I like where our game is at. I like the way we’re competing,” Casey Cizikas told Newsday. “We’re fighting. Even if we get down, we’re not giving up, we’re trying to claw back. But obviously, points are important. You’ve got to find ways to get wins. Especially [Thursday] night, you’ve got to find a way to get at least one point out of that game.”

DeBoer, looking for more finish for the scoring opportunities, tinkered with his lines at Friday’s practice, with Emil Heineman joining Horvat and Kyle Palmieri, Ondrej Palat being elevated to Brayden Schenn’s line with rookie Victor Eklund, and Simon Holmstrom joining Pageau and Anthony Duclair.

On the power play — a dreadful 1-for-18 in the last five games — Eklund was swapped onto the first unit, with Palmieri now skating with the second unit.

“After last night, I think it’s the first time I felt a little bit of frustration with the group,” DeBoer said of the power play.

But without taking the final step and converting scoring opportunities more consistently — which can be done only through more detailed execution — all of the tweaks may be akin to rearranging deck chairs, at least until top-six forwards Mathew Barzal (left knee), Matias Maccelli (lower body) and Cal Ritchie (lower body) are ready to rejoin the lineup.

“The finishing part just needs to be better,” Pageau said.

The playoffs are a long way away in April. But time is beginning to grow short for the wins needed to get there to start coming more consistently.

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