When it comes to QBs in the NFL Draft, Joe Burrow is No. 1 for Kurt Warner
Joe Burrow of LSU warms up before the SEC Championship game against Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 07, 2019. Credit: Getty Images/Kevin C. Cox
INDIANAPOLIS
As far as Hall of Famer Kurt Warner is concerned, this is a two-man quarterback class at the top of the 2020 NFL Draft. And maybe not even two.
For Warner, it’s Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa . . . and everybody else.
And even then, there might be an asterisk next to Tagovailoa, leaving Burrow as the only safe bet.
“I’ve seen some good from all these other guys, but if I’m just going strictly off what I’ve seen on tape, I would say two,” Warner said about how many surefire first-round picks there are in this year’s class.
That doesn’t mean more won’t be drafted; based on recent history, chances are there will be more quarterbacks drafted higher than their talent might suggest.
In a quarterback-driven league, it’s just that way. The overdrafting of quarterbacks is a routine occurrence, with teams sometimes relying on a hope and a prayer as much as the actual talent of the passers they draft.
“The nature of our business, there might be five or six quarterbacks who could go in the first round,” said Warner, who starred for the Rams, Giants and Cardinals and now is a highly respected NFL Network analyst.
Burrow is the cleanest of this year’s prospects, the only quarterback who checks all the boxes and doesn’t have any glaring weakness, physically or otherwise.
“I really like Joe,” Warner said. “I like how compact he is technique-wise. It’s so hard to project what anyone is going to be at the next level, so I always look for things that I think can carry over, and technique carries over. I don’t care where you’re throwing a football, if it’s in an alley, in high school, the NFL, or wherever it’s at. He’s got a compact throwing motion, and I think that’s what translates into accuracy. We saw that this year.”
Warner thinks Burrow also has what it takes mentally.
“I like his ability to process [information],” Warner said. “He did a lot of things at LSU, a lot of five-[wide receiver] stuff, and really forcing the issue down the field, so he had to process a lot of information, and I really like that about him. Those are things that I believe can always translate to the next level. On top of that, he really put a great season together.”
Burrow, who transferred to LSU from Ohio State and led the Tigers to the national championship after the 2019 season, won the Heisman Trophy after a brilliant season. He had a whopping 60 touchdown passes and only six interceptions and led LSU to playoff wins over Oklahoma and Clemson.
“Yeah, I know he’s only done it one year, but that year, every game he showed up,” Warner said. “There weren’t any games where you go, ‘Oh, that was a clunker.’ He showed up every single game along the way, playing against some good teams on the way to a national championship. That was impressive.”
Tagovailoa has all the talent you can ask for in a quarterback, and Warner believes he’ll be a top-five pick. But the injury question gnaws at Warner, especially the dislocated hip Tagovailoa suffered last season that required surgery.
Doctors have pronounced him fit, and Tagovailoa is nearly ready to resume a full workload of training. But still . . .
Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama warms up prior to facing Duke at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 31, 2019 in Atlanta. Credit: Getty Images/Kevin C. Cox
“For whatever reason, I hear Bo Jackson when I hear hip dislocation,” Warner said of the former Pro Bowl running back and All-Star outfielder, whose brilliant football career was cut short and baseball career was damaged by a similar hip injury.
“I’ve talked to people here who say that structurally, there’s blood flow [with Tagovailoa’s situation], but I still have that bias where it worries me. You just have to talk to enough people who are smarter than you who say they’re really 100% not concerned that this will be an issue.
“It got fixed, and he’s going to be fine, and if it happens again, it’s not because it happened before. But that’s a big injury for a quarterback when you’re talking about the hips and their movement and all that.”
Talent-wise, there’s no question Tagovailoa belongs at the top of the draft.
“I really like him,” Warner said. “If I could take the bias out of my head about the hip thing, I think it would be really hard to decipher which one I would take No. 1.
“I like what Tua does. In a [run-pass option] system, he’ll be phenomenal. He’s so accurate with the underneath-type stuff. Gets the ball out quickly. Makes decisive decisions with the football.
“If there’s one thing I want to see more of, it’s the downfield throws from him. But in terms of seeing the field and getting it out and the quick twitch, the foot speed, and being able to reset and do some of that stuff, I really like him. He’s got a chance to be really good.”
After that, it’s “a crapshoot” with the rest of this year’s quarterbacks, Warner said.
“I’ve seen some good from those other guys, Jordan Love [Utah State] and Justin Herbert [Oregon] and Jake Fromm [Georgia] and even Jacob Eason [Washington],” Warner said. “I think the biggest thing with all of them is consistency. You’ve seen ups and downs, and highs and lows, and good moments and then other moments where you’re going, ‘How does that happen?’
“That’s something that always concerns me. If you can’t put together consistency at the college level, how do you do it at the pro level?”
Given the NFL’s chronic need for quarterbacks, Warner wouldn’t be surprised to see most — if not all — of the top quarterbacks taken in the first round or shortly thereafter.
“I think Jordan Love might be one of those guys that some team falls in love with because of the whole package and the athleticism and what we’ve seen in the [pro] game recently,” Warner said. “If he can find consistency, he’s got that chance.”
As for last year’s quarterback class, Warner remains convinced that his misgivings about the Giants’ Daniel Jones were justified. Jones was taken sixth overall, and though he replaced Eli Manning as the starter after only two games, his struggles after a spectacular NFL debut against the Buccaneers were an indication to Warner that problems may remain.
“I think the questions I had are still there,” Warner said. “I liked a lot of what Daniel brought to the table. Thought he was smart, thought he could process things really well. Talent level is where I [had concerns]. I always believe that there has to be a certain level of talent at the NFL level — arm talent, ability — that when things aren’t perfect, can you make those plays anyway. That was my worry with Daniel.
“First game against Tampa, I thought maybe I was wrong. But I felt like, as you watched the course of the year, that was one of the issues that he had. He had to try to make some plays because things weren’t good around him; he struggled to make some of those plays.
“It doesn’t mean he can’t be a good quarterback in this league and he can’t be successful. It just means that margin of error shrinks way down. That’s what we saw last year. I think there are still some concerns big picture-wise what he’s going to be.”
Bob Glauber retired in 2022 after covering the NFL for nearly 40 years. He was selected in 2021 for the Bill Nunn Career Achievement Award by the Pro Football Writers of America, and is a three-time winner of the New York State Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. President of the PFWA for the 2018-20 seasons, he is the author of “The Forgotten First” and “Guts and Genius.”
