Giants coach Joe Judge believes in analytics, but it's his instincts that drive his biggest decisions

In a sports world increasingly driven by analytics and statistical measures formulated in front of computers operated by low-level executives who may never have played competitive sports, Joe Judge offers a refreshing reminder that numbers go only so far in determining his decisions.

Oh, he has the statistics at his disposal, and the Giants have created a vibrant analytics operation the last two years. But when it comes to deciding what’s best for his team in a particular moment, Judge often leans on gut feelings, not cold, hard numbers.

He has shepherded the Giants to four straight victories, rallying them from 0-5 and 1-7 to earn a share of first place in the NFC East and a chance at the team’s second playoff berth since 2011.

The Giants have gotten this far largely because of better blocking and tackling and improved execution in the fundamentals of the game that Judge stresses. But they’ve also gotten here because Judge will go by what he sees and feels at a particular moment in a game, whether it be deciding to go for it on a fourth down, preserving his timeouts for a more opportune moment, calling a trick play or deploying his players in an unconventional way to take advantage of an opponent’s weakness.

Plenty of coaches are driven by numbers. Judge uses the computer in his head to get a good feel for the game.

He was asked about his approach, given the fact that this year’s team has played mostly close, low-scoring games, and whether he has to change his thought process based on perceived limitations.

"I’ll always play to the strengths of our players, whatever is best for that specific team and that specific game plan," he said. "I’ll always make the decision that I think is best at that moment."

For instance?

"Sometimes it might be punting on a short field, maybe attempting a long field goal, maybe going for it on fourth down," he said. "I always have to make the decision."

And that decision usually is made based as much on intuition as it is on some preconceived notions spit out by a computer program.

"It’s not going to look uniform," he said. "You’re not going to be able to look at some Excel sheet of every decision that I make, because I’m not going to make this thing based on some kind of analytical chart that says when you should go for two, when you should punt, when you should go for it on fourth-and-1."

Numbers and tendencies and playing the percentages are an important part of football, and Judge certainly is willing to study them and take them into consideration. But in the heat of the moment on game day, when potential game-changing decisions must be made within seconds, Judge will trust his instincts over everything else.

"To me," he said, "there’s a big feel to the flow of the game and knowing your team and knowing the opponent you’re playing against. You have to understand how the complementary football is being played as well."

For example . . .

"Is it worth going for it on fourth down and giving the ball back at midfield if your defense is playing really well?" he said.

The answer in this case might be no. And for a very good reason: The risk/reward is in not gambling.

"Do you punt the ball down the field and make them go 95 yards, basically saying we’re confident we’re going to get the ball back in three plays and our punt-return unit should give us the field position to have a fresh set of downs?" he said. "Or do we want to give them the ball at midfield [if the fourth-down conversion fails] and give them a short field, maybe 15 yards away, to get into field-goal range."

These kinds of situational football decisions often can mean the difference between winning and losing. Or making the playoffs instead of sitting at home in January watching others in the tournament.

Judge watched intently as Bill Belichick drilled his Patriots teams into taking every imaginable situation into account and being prepared for it on game day. He has transferred that knowledge to the Giants, with impressive results over the last month — perhaps no result as impressive as the Giants’ 17-12 upset win in Seattle with backup Colt McCoy at quarterback.

Each week, the Giants’ analytics folks will give Judge the printouts of all the variables he must consider for a given opponent. But it’s the computer inside Judge’s mind — and his gut — that will carry the day when it comes to critical moments in the game.

"To me, it’s a balance of how you’re playing in all three phases of the game," he said, "and it’s the flow of that specific game. I know that sounds very gray area and vague, but to me, there’s a great feel element of it, knowing what’s going on in that game or what I think is going to be best to win that game."

Nice to see a coach go by what he sees and feels and not be a prisoner to conventional wisdom forged by statistical analysis.

For Judge, it’s not what the numbers decide, but what his eyes tell him.

By Bob Glauber

Special to NewsdayBobGlauber

Bob Glauber retired in 2022 after covering the NFL for nearly 40 years. He was selected in 2021 for the Bill Nunn Career Achievement Award by the Pro Football Writers of America, and is a three-time winner of the New York State Sportswriter of the Year by the National Sports Media Association. President of the PFWA for the 2018-20 seasons, he is the author of “The Forgotten First” and “Guts and Genius.”