Exactly how many home runs is Aaron Judge capable of hitting?
Aaron Judge of the Yankees reacts after his second-inning two-run home run against the Royals at Yankee Stadium on Saturday. Credit: Jim McIsaac
If Aaron Judge keeps hammering balls over fences at this ridiculous rate, the question isn’t whether he’ll pass Roger Maris for what many still consider to be the “clean” single-season home run record.
It’s by how much.
Pick your pace. With Judge smacking his 42nd homer Saturday in Game No. 102 for the Yankees — who again throttled the Royals, 8-2, for their third consecutive victory — that puts him on track for 67 by season’s end, easily clearing Maris’ 61 in 1961.
But that doesn’t adequately describe the damage Judge is inflicting lately. Or why it’s time to starting thinking that the real number Judge ultimately could be chasing is 74, breaking the mark set by Barry Bonds in 2001.
Sound crazy? So does Judge crushing 12 homers in his last 14 games (including nine in the past nine) and 41 in his last 86. If you go by that machine-like efficiency, who knows how many he could finish with? With 60 games remaining, what’s reasonable to suggest? Going deep another 30 times?
For now, we’ll leave Bonds out of the conversation. Or Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, for that matter. Next up is Maris, and it was only fitting that Judge again was asked to address this topic on Old-Timers’ Day in the Bronx.
“You can’t look at it,” he said. “People are going to keep saying every game, you’re on pace for this, on pace for that. But that’s all speculation. You never know what’s going to happen. So for me, I just got to keep working hard, keep my head down and do what I can to help this team win games. At the end of the year, we can talk about what we finish at and how it feels.”
For now, let’s take a glance at some recent history. Judge smacked a walk-off homer, his third of the season, in the ninth inning to deliver Thursday night’s 1-0 victory over the Royals. He followed that by swatting two more home runs Friday, including a grand slam, in an 11-5 rout.
In the second inning Saturday, Judge jumped on a 95-mph fastball from Royals starter Jonathan Heasley and ripped a line drive (exit velo: 105.2 mph) that barely cleared the right-centerfield wall (364 feet). The two-run shot put the Yankees up 4-0 and pretty much ended the game right then and there.
That was No. 200 in his 671st career game for Judge, who became the second fastest to reach that milestone. And if you don’t think Judge knows exactly where he stands from a historical standpoint, think again. After the game, when asked if he knew who was first, Judge paused for a moment before correctly saying Ryan Howard (658 games).
“It’s incredible,” said Nestor Cortes, the beneficiary of Saturday’s blast. “Every night, everybody’s expecting a home run from him. I mean, we are, so it’s good to be on his team and see what he’s doing.”
With the Yankees comfortably ahead in the AL East, Judge’s pursuit of Maris (as well as the PED-asterisk trio) could be the only suspense left in the final two months, aside from maybe holding off the Astros for home-field advantage come October.
In 1961, Maris was tortured by his chase of the beloved Babe Ruth. Even commissioner Ford Frick (a Ruth ally) conspired against him, saying Maris deserved an asterisk if it took him more than 154 games to surpass the Babe (’61 was the first year of the 162-game schedule).
Actually, Maris hit No. 61 in Game 163, which was tacked on because of an April 22 tie with the Orioles. It wasn’t until 30 years later that commissioner Fay Vincent gave Maris official ownership of the single-season record, only to have it ripped away a decade later by McGwire in a PED-related controversy that will haunt the sport forever.
As Judge gets closer, the pressure will increase in a way he hasn’t really experienced before. Unlike Maris, however, the popular Judge is going to be riding a wave of public support that’s already been intensifying in the Bronx, with MVP chants that erupt for him on a daily basis.
“The one thing I would say about it is, I can’t imagine a person more equipped to go through something like that,” manager Aaron Boone said. “Because I know, at his core, what he’s about — and that’s this team, and us winning. Nothing will get in the way of that. He’ll have that focus and I think it will be simple for him.”
The only speed bumps could be getting pitches to hit. Judge went 2-for-3 Saturday and also walked twice as the Kansas City relievers wanted no part of him after the home run. In his last 12 games, Judge is hitting .489 (22-for-45) with a 1.849 OPS, so he’s going to be getting the Bonds treatment more and more.
“Some of the struggles I’ve had during the year have been situations where teams aren’t going to give in,” Judge said. “And you’re kind of chasing stuff out of the zone. It’s just about me being disciplined.”
But when Judge does get a pitch these days, everyone in the stadium knows where it’s headed. And Judge looks destined to make history.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
