David Lennon's end-of-year MLB awards: Aaron Judge wins MVP

On the eve of MLB’s new expanded playoff format, the NL East is the only division race still undecided, a down-to-the-wire battle between two bitter rivals in Atlanta and the Mets, which share a lopsided history with these sort of things.

It’s too bad the rest has been virtually locked up -- other than the NL’s last wild card and some jockeying for position -- but look at it this way: the 2022 season was supposed to be over on Oct. 2 anyway. This bonus time, you may remember, is due to last winter’s contentious labor negotiations, which included a 99-day lockout that pushed back the start of spring training and wiped out the first week of the regular season (those games wound up stuck on the back end of the schedule -- hence playing until Oct. 5).

But even if the playoff seeding is mostly set, these games do have some statistical relevance for two sluggers in particular, Aaron Judge and Albert Pujols. Judge, who’s facing a late challenge from Shohei Ohtani in the AL MVP race, is gunning to be only the second Triple Crown winner in 55 years and hit his 61st homer Wednesday in Toronto to tie Roger Maris. He was still trying to break the 61-year-old AL record as of Saturday.

As for Pujols, he launched career homer No. 701 Friday night as part of a stunning second half surge in his farewell tour with the Cardinals. After the All-Star break, the 42-year-old Pujols is hitting .309 with 16 home runs and a 1.053 OPS in 52 games (compared to a .215 BA, six HRs and a .676 OPS in the first half.) Babe Ruth (714) will stay out of his reach, but Pujols did get past Alex Rodriguez (696) this season.

So as we head toward the finish line -- with a pitch clock, shift ban and larger bases on tap for 2023 -- here’s a look at my end-of-year awards, complete with my preseason and midseason selections (for accountability’s sake). Since I’m voting for the AL Manager of the Year this time, you’ll have to wait for that pick until early November when the entire list of winners is revealed.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

MVP: Aaron Judge, Yankees

In most years -- or maybe all of them, before the existence of Shohei Ohtani -- Judge would be the runaway choice for MVP, considering that he’s already matched Roger Maris with No. 61 and could end up with the Triple Crown, too. Not only that, Judge is miles ahead of the rest from an offensive standpoint, and his 11.1 WAR buries the next closest on the AL list -- the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez (6.5). Factor in that the rest of the Yankees’ lineup was either struggling, hurt or both, and Judge -- who also established himself as a centerfielder -- carried them to the AL East title. He’s been the definition of MVP, especially if you look at it from the contending perspective. As for Ohtani, he almost belongs in a category by himself, with 34 homers and an .888 OPS at the plate and 2.35 ERA on the mound in 27 starts. Incredible. It’s not his fault the Angels were bad again, but Judge gets the edge for pushing the Yankees to the playoffs nearly on his own.

Midseason pick: Aaron Judge

Preseason pick: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Blue Jays

CY YOUNG: Justin Verlander, Astros

Ohtani pops in the crowded field for this award, too. But the ageless Verlander, 39, gets the nod here despite being a little short on innings (170) and starts (27) due to leading the AL in ERA (1.80) by a wide margin over the White Sox’s Dylan Cease (2.04), barely issuing walks (1.48) and rarely surrendering homers (0.64). He’s also the leader in WHIP (0.85) and second in opponents batting average (.188). This was a tight one, though, as Ohtani, Cease, the Rays’ Shane McClanahan, the Blue Jays’ Alek Manoah and the Guardians’ Shane Bieber all will wind up appearing in some order on the five-pitcher ballot. 

Midseason pick: Shane McClanahan

Preseason pick: Robbie Ray, Mariners

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Julio Rodriguez, Mariners

The Mariners ended the longest playoff drought of any major pro sports team in North America at 21 years with Friday’s walkoff clincher, and Rodriguez was as big a reason as any for his special season. Rodriguez, a 21-year-old centerfielder, already has back-to-back Rookie of the Month awards on his resume and was hitting .280 with 27 homers, 25 stolen bases, 81 runs scored, 73 RBIs and an .844 OPS through 129 games.

Midseason pick: Julio Rodriguez

Preseason pick: Bobby Witt, Jr., Royals

NATIONAL LEAGUE

MVP: Manny Machado, Padres

After Paul Goldschmidt seemingly had this locked up for most of the season, Machado swipes it down the stretch for a couple of unscientific methods of criteria. The Padres third baseman has the offensive numbers that nearly match Goldschmidt and his Cardinals teammate Nolan Arenado, hitting .295 with 31 homers, 100 RBIs and an .893 OPS. He’s also right up there with a 7.1 WAR -- Goldschmidt and Arenado were tied with an NL best 7.2 as of Saturday. But where Machado steals this award is being the lone MVP-caliber player in the Padres lineup -- no thanks to Juan Soto’s rather pedestrian output after the trade -- and doing all the heavy-lifting himself in getting San Diego to the brink of the postseason. Not that Goldschmidt and Arenado cancel each other out for their impressive performance -- they just opened the door for Machado’s candidacy. Same goes for the Freddie Freeman/Mookie Betts dynamic with the Dodgers.

Midseason pick: Paul Goldschmidt

Preseason pick: Juan Soto, Nationals/Padres

CY YOUNG: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins

Alcantara’s statistical brilliance in most of the major categories doesn’t distinguish him as the best in any one of them. His 2.28 ERA is second to the Dodgers’ Julio Urias (2.17), his 0.98 WHIP ranks fourth and his .210 OBA is sixth. Alcantara also is light on strikeouts, as his 8.15 K/9 is 13th -- well below the Giants’ Carlos Rodon. But the Marlins’ ace is close enough to the rest of the candidates that what puts him over the top is the significant innings boost -- he was at 228 2/3 before Saturday’s games, well ahead of the second pitcher on the list, in either league, the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas (199 1/3). Rodon was a whole 50 innings behind him (178). To be that outstanding, for that much of an extended workload, is what separates Alcantara from the rest.

Midseason pick: Sandy Alcantara

Preseason pick: Walker Buehler, Dodgers

MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Buck Showalter, Mets

Showalter was the obvious choice when Luis Rojas was let go at the end of last season and he’s showed why over the past six months, establishing a culture of accountability that’s resulted in the Mets staying atop the NL East nearly wire-to-wire (heading into the season’s final days) while clinching only their third playoff berth in 16 seasons. Showalter maintains a steady hand at the wheel -- a necessity in occasionally turbulent Flushing -- and the clubhouse has reflected the players’ respect for such an accomplished leader. Should be a clean sweep for me in this category. But anyone who knows Showalter, and is familiar with the Mets, could see this was the right pairing at the right time. 

Midseason pick: Buck Showalter

Preseason pick: Buck Showalter

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Michael Harris II, Atlanta

Atlanta is going to win this award. It’s just a matter of which player -- and you can build a compelling case for either Harris or the electric Spencer Strider. Both had a WAR of 4.9 on the season’s final weekend, so for the purely statistical crowd, hat’s out as a tiebreaker. As for Harris, he was batting .304 with 19 homers, 20 stolen bases and an .872 OPS in 110 games as the starting centerfielder for the defending world champs. Strider, with a fastball that averages 98.2 mph, was 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA and 13.81 K/9 ratio in 20 starts and 11 relief appearances before his regular season was ended this week by an oblique strain. It’s the classic argument between position player and pitcher, but Harris gets the trophy here for everyday impact.

Midseason pick: Michael Harris II

Preseason pick: Oneill Cruz, Pirates

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.