Checking up on how baseball contract extensions have fared
Luis Severino of the Yankees looks on against the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. Credit: Jim McIsaac
A little over a month into the season, we’ve already learned there’s a fine line between what would be characterized as team-friendly contract extensions and smart business decisions on a player’s part. Two of the most glaring examples reside in the Bronx — or these days, Tampa — with Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino still working their way back from spring-training injuries that happened almost before the ink was dry on their new deals.
Major League Baseball’s recent extension craze, like any investment strategy, comes down to calculated long-term risk. While the game’s young stars have always hungrily eyed free agency, that feels like a faraway — and ultimately disappointing — destination given the sport’s labor issues lately.
“I was always told that, the time to be happy is the time you become a free agent,” said Gio Gonzalez, who was frozen out this winter, then signed not one, but two deals (Yankees, Brewers) in the span of a month. “You always look forward to that day, and when it finally came, it wasn’t what you expected. It takes a huge toll on how you want to set up your career.”
With that new reality, there’s lot to be said for cash in hand — at a much earlier age, a negotiating window that has benefited both sides. It also could be a blueprint for the future, after the current CBA expires (2021) and the economic system is retooled.
As for the present, let’s check in how these extensions have fared so far.
AS ADVERTISED
Nolan Arenado, Rockies, 8 yrs, $260M: A model of consistency on both sides of the ball, Arenado is coming off four consecutive silver sluggers and gold gloves. You can probably pencil him in for five straight. Through 32 games, Arenado is hitting .308 with nine homers, 27 RBIs and a .941 OPS.
Justin Verlander, Astros, 2 yrs, $66M: Verlander finished second in the Cy Young voting last season, but at age 36, he’s already building momentum for getting No. 2 for his trophy case at 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA, .0864 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 through seven starts.
Justin Verlander of the Astros pitches in the first inning against the Twins at Minute Maid Park on April 24 in Houston. Credit: Getty Images/Bob Levey
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 3 yrs, $93M: This wasn’t looking so great when Kershaw was sidelined indefinitely during spring training with shoulder inflammation, delaying his season. But the three-time Cy winner has been solid since, with a 2.77 ERA, 0.846 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 in four starts.
Mike Trout, Angels, 12 yrs, $430M: Was there any doubt Trout would be on pace for his third MVP after his nearly half a billion haul? The Angels remain mediocre (14-17) despite the planet’s best player starting off with a slash line of .312/.492/.602 through 29 games. He’s also on pace for more than 150 walks.
Brian Goodwin is greeted at the dugout by Mike Trout of the Angels after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning of the game against the Blue Jays at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 30 in Anaheim, Calif. Credit: Getty Images/Jayne Kamin-Oncea
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox, 6 yrs, $120M: Another pending free agent kept off the market, the shortstop remains a relative bargain at a premium defensive position. Through 31 games, Bogaerts was hitting .270 with four homers and his .813 OPS should eventually climb on par with last year's career-best .883.
Ronald Acuna Jr, 8 yrs, $100M: The Braves rolled the dice by giving a 21-year-old player, with one major-league season under his belt, a nine-figure extension. But the reigning Rookie of the Year is pretty much in line with expectations through 32 games, hitting .270 with six homers and an .847 OPS.
Ozzie Albies, 7 yrs, $35M: Albies, 22, was roundly blasted for agreeing to this deal, given his mammoth upside, and he continues to look like a steal with a .289 batting average and .839 OPS that has him ahead of last season’s numbers. Also has six homers and 26 runs scored in 32 games.
Alex Bregman, Astros, 5 yrs, $100M: Bregman signed his deal coming off a fifth-place finish for MVP and he seems to be trending in his ’18 direction again, with six homers, a .392 on-base percentage and .873 OPS through 30 games.
SPRING SPEEDBUMPS
Jacob deGrom, Mets, 5 yrs, $137.5M: The Mets’ ace gave them an April scare with a three-start stretch that featured a 9.69 ERA and opponents ripping him for a 1.103 OPS — not to mention an IL stint due to a sore elbow. But deGrom restored the faith Wednesday with a three-hit, six-strikeout performance over seven scoreless innings that got his ERA back below four (3.82).
Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals, 5 yrs, $130M: The Diamondbacks weren’t going to pay their best player heading into his walk year, so they shipped him to St. Louis, where the six-time All-Star is not yet up this MVP-caliber speed with an .830 OPS that’s 100 points below his career mark.
Chris Sale, Red Sox, 5 yrs, $145M: Betting on the fragile Sale looked like a bad misstep through his first six starts, as he was winless (0-5) with a 6.30 ERA and a diminished fastball that no longer was getting swings-and-misses. But he found his old self Friday, against his old team, throwing six scoreless innings with 10 Ks in beating the White Sox for his first win
Aaron Nola, Phillies, 4 yrs, $45M: Fresh off his third-place Cy finish, Nola followed up in sluggish fashion, with a 7.45 ERA and an opponents .901 OPS through his first four starts. Much to the Phillies’ relief, however, it didn’t last. He’s rebounded to go 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA over his next three.
Eloy Jimenez, White Sox, 6 yrs, $43M: Jimenez raised eyebrows in signing a long-term deal before playing in a major-league game, and his inexperience showed early when he suffered a high-ankle sprain crashing into the wall on an unplayable home-run ball. Jimenez was hitting .241 with three homers in 21 games before landing on the IL.
MONEY FOR NOTHING
Luis Severino, Yankees, 4 yrs, $40M: So much for this team-friendly deal. Severino hasn’t appeared in a game of any sort since since signing this extension in February — and nobody knows when he will. Severino suffered a lat strain while already rehabbing from rotator cuff inflammation and there’s no timetable for his return.
Aaron Hicks, Yankees, 7 yrs, $70M: Who knew that the Hicks’ back issue, preceded by Severino’s shoulder injury, would be foreshadowing for a Yankees’ team that has put 16 players on the IL list already? Hicks’ contract also was supposed to be team-friendly. Instead, the frequent health problems of his past are making his Bronx future worrisome.
REMEMBER THOSE BIG-NAME FREE AGENTS?
Bryce Harper, Phillies, 13 yrs, $330M: It didn’t take long for Harper to hear boos at Citizens Bank Park, a Philly scenario as predictable as cheesesteaks and Rocky poses on the Art museum steps. Harper was hitting .234 through 31 games, and striking out once every 3.6 plate appearances. He’s third on the club in both home runs (six) and RBIs (20), and it definitely helps that the Phillies (18-13) are in first place.
Manny Machado, Padres, 10 yrs, $300M: Machado may now play in perfect San Diego weather at home, but he’s not in cozy Camden Yards anymore, as his .675 OPS at Petco Park can attest. Overall, Machado is hitting .235 with six homers and 16 RBIs in 32 games, which is considerably lighter than you’d expect from the third-highest contract in the sport.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
