Getting Japanese star Shohei Otani to U.S. could be complicated because of posting system
Shohei Ohtani of the Nippon Ham Fighters delivers at Sapporo Dome on Oct. 16, 2016. Credit: Kyodo
By all accounts, Shohei Otani — the next Japanese superstar, a Ruthian combination of pitching ace and power bat — is determined to leave the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters to play in the Major Leagues next season.
The problem, and it could be a newly complicated one, is getting him to the United States.
In the past, this wasn’t such an ordeal. Expensive, sure. But after the last stage in the evolution of the posting system, back in 2013, all MLB teams had to do was pony up the $20-million posting fee (or buy-in price) to bid on a pitcher such as Masahiro Tanaka (’13) or Kenta Maeda (’15), the last two Japanese aces subject to the process.
The Yankees ultimately won the Tanaka sweepstakes with a seven-year, $155-million contract that includes an opt-out after this season. The Dodgers secured Maeda with a considerably more modest eight-year, $25-million deal.
Under that revised system, the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) teams made less of a profit than in its previous version, when the posting fee was uncapped. In 2011, the Rangers paid $51.7 million to free Yu Darvish from the Fighters, then had to negotiate his six-year, $60-million deal. Darvish’s posting bid remains the record, surpassing the $51.1 million the Red Sox paid to the Seibu Lions for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and it’s almost certain to to stay that way, as the NPB is likely to take another hit in this next round of changes to the posting process.
For as universally coveted as Otani is, and only 22 years old, MLB’s goal to cut the operating costs of its member clubs is going to seriously impact what he’s able to earn in the States — and how his team will be compensated for the departure of its biggest drawing card. Earlier this year, MLB notified NPB that it wanted to modify the posting process again, only three years after installing the $20-million cap.
That was the first significant change since the posting system was put in place in 1998. The unlimited auction had existed for 15 years, with the player’s negotiating rights being awarded to the highest bidder. But in the last negotiation, what NPB teams could get for their elite players was essentially sliced by more than half, going by what Darvish and Dice-K were able to command. At the MLB owners meetings earlier this month, commissioner Rob Manfred basically announced their plans to alter the posting process, a delicate issue between the two baseball organizations, and hinted at reducing the cost of it.
“We’ve certainly begun conversations about changes to the posting system,” Manfred said. “And those conversations were a direct result of two developments. One, the changes in the new basic agreement, with respect to the governing rules. And a desire to have more of a uniform system, because we’re getting players from more and more countries.
“We have different systems for different countries right now, and usually uniformity is a good thing. We’d like to have more uniformity.”
MLB only has posting agreements with two professional leagues: the NPB and the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO). In Japan, players are not granted free agency until nine years of service time, but teams can permit them to leave for a price, which is the purpose of the posting fee. If that is reduced again in the coming months, say significantly below the $20 million-ceiling, how does it become viable for an NPB club to allow its greatest assets to go play elsewhere?
“Then there really would be no incentive for a Japanese team,” said one baseball official familiar with the process. “It’s a double-whammy.”
In Otani, however, MLB may have more leverage than usual. Reports in Japan indicate that Otani already has an agreement with the Fighters to post him after this season, a pact that was struck when he first was drafted. At the time, Otani’s team must have assumed the posting fee would be at least $20 million, as the others were. But that may not be the case now. And Otani’s decision to leave for the States reportedly remains unaffected by the looming changes.
Tanaka faced a similar situation with the Rakuten Eagles in 2013, and they went ahead with posting him after he led them to the Japan Series crown, a title march that included the Pacific League MVP for Tanaka. A few weeks later, Rakuten discovered their windfall would be considerably less than for previous aces, but Tanaka still cashed in big with his record $155-million contract.
“I didn’t know what was going to happen,” Tanaka said Saturday through his interpreter. “Because No. 1, the team that I played for had to accept [the posting fee]. And No. 2, there had to be a team that wanted my services. That was sort of an anxious time because all I could do was wait.”
Rakuten’s loss, however, turned out to be Tanaka’s gain with the huge payday he received from the Yankees. But under the new CBA that Manfred alluded to, that won’t be possible for Otani, who will subject to the updated rules for the signing of international players under the age of 25. According to those rules, teams only have roughly $5.75 million at their disposal for international talent during one signing period — and unlike previous years, it’s a hard cap. Although clubs can trade for more pool money, it’s still maxed out at around $10 million.
Even if every dime of that money went to Otani, that would be nowhere near his expected value — and he only turns 23 on July 5. Otani is 29-9 with a 2.07 ERA over his past two seasons with the Fighters, averaging 185 strikeouts each year. In 2016, he also hit 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances, with a 1.004 OPS. This season, Otani has been sidelined since early April with a hamstring strain, an injury suffered when he tried to leg out an infield single. Despite his two-way talent, it seems unlikely that an MLB team would risk using him at any other position other than on the mound, even though the Fighters used him in the outfield at times.
MLB officials insist that the new CBA rules will not be altered to accommodate an “Otani Amendment” but there may be ways around it. Presumably, Otani’s MLB contract could be backloaded to pay him more once he turns 25. The new posting system has to be ironed out first, however, and that is no slam dunk. For a Japanese player determined to test his talents at the highest level, money isn’t always the driving factor. But the NPB is a business, first and foremost, with possibly a lot to lose in granting the wishes of its best and most popular players, depending on what happens in the coming months.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
