There's no guarantee Noah Syndergaard will pitch for the Mets this season
New York Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard during a spring training workout Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021, in Port St. Lucie, FL. Credit: Newsday/Alejandra Villa Loarca
Noah Syndergaard’s timetable took a terrible detour Thursday morning when the Mets revealed he’ll be shut down for six weeks with inflammation in the same right elbow repaired by Tommy John surgery.
And that ominously changed the conversation involving Syndergaard. It’s no longer about when Thor might return this season— but if he will at all.
"We pray he can pitch for us this year," manager Luis Rojas said.
That’s what this boils down to now. For the glass half-full crowd, yes, it was somewhat of a silver lining the MRI did now show any structural damage to the UCL in question. Any problems there, and Syndergaard’s future obviously would feel much darker right now.
But inflammation severe enough to keep him from throwing for six weeks would appear to be a red flag that goes beyond the expected rigors of the TJ rehab process. Remember, that schedule basically freezes Syndergaard until after the All-Star break, and only then would he begin the actual ramp-up to get major league-ready again.
Resetting at zero, think about Syndergaard needing what is essentially another spring training — two weeks of mound progression, bullpen sides, live batting practice — before a month of minor-league rehab starts. Or as Yankees manager Aaron Boone outlined Wednesday in speaking about his own injured No. 2, Corey Kluber, one week of shutdown equals one week of buildup on the back end, and by that formula, Syndergaard doesn’t even become a candidate for the Mets’ rotation until late August.
Carrying out these projections, however, seems pointless. If we’ve learned anything since spring training began, as the Mets have sent 19 players overall to the injured list, including 17 currently, the ballpark estimates on their recoveries are worth about as much as creating your own cryptocurrency. Something to pin hopes on, but speculative at best. And in the end, probably a disappointment.
The Mets have reminded us of that in 2021, even as they keep winning despite the multiplying casualty count. They swept the Rockies in Thursday’s doubleheader with a total of five runs (1-0, 4-2) by relying again on solid pitching, scrappy defense and barely enough offense from a patchwork of B-listers.
Along the way, Rojas just sticks to the script on injuries. When pressed on his confidence level for Noah’s return this season, Rojas smartly deferred to the official prognosis rather than dish any misplaced optimism.
"The six weeks, which is a significant time, this is what I want to see work," Rojas said. "I really want to wait for this time to pass and give the respect to our medical group to work with him."
Some might take issue with the second half of Rojas’ comments, and this is hardly the first time that Mets doctors/trainers have come under additional scrutiny. It’s been happening with intermittent frequency since 2009, the season the Mets had 20 players on the IL, including many regulars, that were lost for long periods of time shaded by suspicious medical handling.
This year’s team is on pace to bury that number by the All-Star break, but the Mets have overhauled their training and conditioning staffs in recent years, and it’s hard to take issue with the standard of care from the Hospital for Special Surgery, one of the preeminent orthopedic facilities on the planet. Also, MLB as a whole has been riddled by a disturbing rash of injuries this season, and six teams have a longer IL than the Mets, with the Padres (23) the most unlucky of that bruised bunch.
In the case of Syndergaard, who we witnessed zipping fastballs off a mound in the early days of spring training, he always seemed ahead of schedule. Was it too much, too soon? Hard to say. Syndergaard impressed in his first rehab start for Low-A St. Lucie, throwing his entire repertoire, and maxing out at 95 mph, over four scoreless innings. But in Tuesday’s follow-up, Syndergaard’s velocity dropped and he was pulled after one inning because of the elbow discomfort.
By comparison, two pitchers that had Tommy John surgery around the same time as Syndergaard last year — the Yankees’ Luis Severino and Red Sox’s Chris Sale — have moved more slowly in their recoveries. Severino’s operation was a month earlier than Syndergaard’s and he has yet to make a rehab start. Sale had his surgery three days after Syndergaard and is only up to multiple bullpen sessions each week.
Every case is different, and the Mets are going to need to take a closer look at what may have caused Syndergaard’s setback. Some in the past have pointed to his mechanics as problematic, with his bulked-up physique potentially leading to that devastating lat muscle tear in 2017. Whatever the culprit, Syndergaard made 57 starts over the two subsequent seasons, with a 3.73 ERA, 1.224 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 before suffering the UCL tear presumably toward the end of the COVID-aborted spring training in 2020.
The rosiest projections had Syndergaard returning next month, and now the best-case scenario figures to be late August, only a few weeks short of his pending free agency. But that speculation can wait. The most pressing issue is having him throwing another pitch in the majors this season, and Thursday’s setback suggests that’s not a guarantee.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
