Too much is riding on Adam Wainwright and his elbow

Here are the two choices if you're the Cardinals, now down 1-0 to the Giants in the NLCS after Saturday night's 3-0 loss at Busch Stadium.

Adam Wainwright is physically fine, there's nothing seriously wrong with his right elbow and he's just pitching lousy in the playoffs.

Or Wainwright does indeed have a troublesome elbow issue, despite repeatedly downplaying it, and that's why he can't seem to get anybody out this October, a trend that continued with his abbreviated 4 2/3-inning stint in Game 1.

Either way, it's not an ideal situation for the Cardinals, who can't be feeling too confident about their World Series chances as long as Wainwright is on the fritz. After a second disappointing start, Wainwright still believes things will be different if he gets one more shot at redemption.

"Hopefully, the next time I pitch," Wainwright said, "I'll have a chance to close this series out."

Four days earlier, on this same field. the Busch fans were delirious while watching Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw look mortal in teeing up that series-clinching homer to Matt Adams. Now that was fun, seeing someone else's Cy Young winner come up small.

Well, at least Kershaw made it to the seventh inning before lobbing that grenade of a curveball to Adams.

In Wainwright's case, he basically did another slow burn until St. Louis manager Mike Matheny was forced to remove him with two outs in the fifth inning after throwing 98 pitches. It wasn't all his fault the Giants had a 3-0 lead by then. They scored twice in the second inning with the help of a 120-foot pop-up that dropped in behind third base and a ground ball that skipped through Matt Carpenter's legs.

But Wainwright still was a shell of his former self, the pitcher who went 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA during the regular season, including 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in September.

It all started going south in Game 1 of the NLDS, when his much-hyped showdown with Kershaw at Dodger Stadium turned flat in a hurry. Wainwright allowed six runs and 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings, but the Cardinals got him off the hook by rallying late against Kershaw to come away with an improbable 10-9 victory.

That, of course, rekindled the conversation about Wainwright's elbow concerns, which cast doubt on his availability for a potential Game 5.

Fortunately for the Cardinals, they eliminated the Dodgers in four, giving Wainwright a full seven days' rest before taking the mound again in the NLCS opener. We're a little late in the year to think an extended breather can reset a season's worth of mileage, but that had to help some.

It didn't stop the questions, though. On the eve of Game 1, Wainwright spent most of his time swatting away repeated inquiries about his right arm, but he did admit the discomfort was a "factor" in his disappointing performance at Chavez Ravine.

On Saturday night, after a clean first inning, Wainwright got bogged down in a 36-pitch second and an 18-pitch third. Again, the Cardinals extended him further than necessary when Kolten Wong muffed a routine double-play grounder that was reduced to one out and kept the inning alive for Brandon Belt's sacrifice fly.

There's no doubt Wainwright was victimized by an unlucky bounce or two in the loss. But check out the sum total of his playoff performances: two starts, nine innings, 200 pitches, eight earned runs.

"It wasn't 100 percent," Wainwright said of his elbow, "but it was 100 percent better than it was last time. The next time, I expect it to be even better."

For all the criticism leveled at Kershaw, he still was dominant for all but two costly innings before his abrupt exit from October.

We haven't seen any flashes of greatness from Wainwright, who has labored in his two appearances and sheepishly turned the ball over to Matheny when the manager fetched him in the fifth.

"I'm grading myself on a very high scale because I expect to be great," Wainwright said, "and today I was not great. The pitcher that pitched against us was."

For the Cardinals to have any chance in this series, that can't keep happening.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.