Winter meetings: For Yankees and Mets, things could become a little clearer this week
Free agent Kyle Tucker rounds the bases after homering for the Cubs against the Boston Red Sox at Wrigley Field on July 19 in Chicago, Illinois. Credit: Getty Images/Griffin Quinn
A year ago, Juan Soto’s free agency held the baseball industry hostage right up to the eve of the winter meetings, when he agreed on a record 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets.
In what seemed like a matter of minutes, the rest of the market opened for business, spurring the Yankees’ near-instantaneous pivot to Max Fried (eight years, $218 million) and the Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker.
Now Tucker will be on the move again, this time presumably to the highest bidder, and it’s unclear if the slugging outfielder will be the Soto-type trigger for these winter meetings in Orlando. But if not Tucker, then who?
The idea of Tucker, the best bat available, as a fallback option seems ludicrous to suggest. But that perception stems from a price tag that is expected to approach $400 million over as many as a dozen years, making less costly investments such as Cody Bellinger or Kyle Schwarber more appealing.
Take the Yankees, for example. Just last week, Hal Steinbrenner spoke warily about his 2026 payroll and — with the sport’s collective bargaining agreement set to expire a year from now — extolled the virtues of salary-cap reform (with the inclusion of a floor). But the Yankees’ owner also acknowledged in the same breath that he expected to surge past $300 million again for next season (after being at $319M for 2025). The mystery is by how much.
Steinbrenner pushed Mets counterpart Steve Cohen to the brink for Soto last winter by going as high as $760 million over 16 years, a number that defied any talk of belt-tightening in the Bronx. This year, Bellinger is the player the Yankees absolutely have to have — like Soto, after a successful Bronx audition — and Steinbrenner again is going head-to-head with Cohen.
Bellinger and agent Scott Boras are fortunate, as this Subway Series dynamic should push the bidding to places it wouldn't have gone otherwise. It also will force Steinbrenner to put his cards on the table, giving us the first real glimpse of what the Yankees truly are willing to spend this winter.
“We can talk before [general manager Brian Cashman] goes into the winter meetings about a range,” Steinbrenner said. “But because it’s a fluid situation, that range can go bye-bye in two seconds if there’s a deal that arises that I feel would be very beneficial to some area of need that we have. It’s hard to give you a number.”
The Mets don’t get into specifics about their annual budget either, but Cohen doesn’t express the same fiscal concerns publicly — nor does he likely have them, with a personal estimated worth of about $25 billion and a new Flushing casino on the way.
As useful as the versatile Bellinger would be for the Mets, they have some other big-ticket items on their plate, primarily Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz.
Both could end up coming off the board relatively soon in Orlando, and the Mets haven’t given the vibe that they’re willing to meet either one at the top of the market.
Alonso’s case is interesting; not only does he have the same agent as Bellinger, but Boras also represents other big bats on the market in Alex Bregman and Kazuma Okamoto, a Japanese slugger who plays the corner infield positions.
If Bregman returns to the Red Sox, does Boston then pass on Alonso, giving the Mets a more team-friendly pathway to a Polar Bear reunion? Or maybe president of baseball operations David Stearns chooses to diversify and goes with Okamoto instead, spreading Alonso’s cash around to other positions.
Diaz, of course, factors into that equation, too. He’s this offseason’s most coveted closer, and a number of high-leverage relievers already have signed: Devin Williams (Mets, three years, $51M), Ryan Helsley (Orioles, two years, $28M), Raisel Iglesias (Atlanta, one year, $16M) and Emilio Pagan (Reds, two years, $20M).
With Diaz believed to be seeking another five-year deal at roughly $100 million, the Mets have to determine their appetite for creating that super-pen with Diaz and Williams or instead building a supporting cast for the closer they just signed. Former Padres All-Star Robert Suarez still is available, along with dozens of other proven arms. Relievers usually sign in bunches once teams turn their attention to them.
The Mets already have broken up their core by sending Brandon Nimmo to Texas last month, a swap that brought back two-time Gold Glove winner Marcus Semien as part of Stearns’ offseason “run-prevention” mantra. And there still is plenty left on their wish list, which could lean more toward the trade front.
As much as the focus tends to be on the big-ticket free agents at the winter meetings, with potential labor strife on the horizon, we could see increased trade activity as teams look to upgrade more cheaply. That’s especially true when it comes to fortifying rotations.
Aces such as back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta could be available as one-year rentals as they await next winter’s big payday (barring any labor-related complications). With the Blue Jays already signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal, there’s a price point to use in negotiations, with free agents Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez next in line.
So after months of speculation, we finally should get some answers this coming week in Orlando, the true start of baseball’s holiday shopping season. And a window into what we can expect for the winter ahead.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
