Winners & losers of NFL free agency

It’s a strange start to the offseason when, after a week of wild free agency and trading, with veterans and faces of franchises released and on the move, the NFL’s biggest move hasn’t even happened yet.

That, of course, will be the trade that eventually brings Aaron Rodgers to the Jets from the Packers.

When it does occur — we’re not yet ready to embrace the pessimism of saying “if,” but give it a few weeks — it will certainly give the Jets their biggest win since, perhaps, Super Bowl III.

Until then, however, let’s put that move aside and take a look at what the rest of the league has been up to. High-profile quarterbacks Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield have all found new teams. Top cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and Stephon Gilmore have as well. Ezekiel Elliott’s days in Dallas have ended, the Eagles are running it back with a recommitment to their core, and Seattle is building around Geno Smith.

And all the while, through all the maneuvering, no one has yet to usurp Kansas City as the team to beat for Super Bowl LVIII. Funny how that happens.

It’s certainly not a guarantee of success or a damnation to failure when the real football starts in the fall, but here is a look at five winners and five losers through the very earliest stages of this 2023 season:

WINNERS

BEARS

Must be nice to have the kind of cap space and capital general manager Ryan Poles had to turn the franchise around. Wide reeceiver D.J. Moore came in a trade of the first overall pick and the Bears spent lavishly in free agency on the biggest rebuild in the city since the Great Chicago Fire. Every team had its eye on Tremaine Edwards and the Bears got him, not to mention Nate Davis and DeMarcus Walker, D’Onta Foreman and Robert Tonyan. The offseason began with folks wondering if the Bears would be moving on from Justin Fields as their quarterback. Now it seems like he’s the only one sticking around and it will almost certainly be for the better.

49ERS

Despite having Nick Bosa, the Defensive Player of the Year, screaming off the edge all last season, the Niners managed only one sack from their defensive tackles. That won’t be the case this season after signing Javon Hargrave from the Eagles and now boasting one of the most impressive defensive fronts in recent NFL memory with those two and Arik Armstead. Besides the big Hargrave splash, they also made a few impressive low-risk signings — Clelin Ferrell, T.Y. McGill, Isaiah Oliver — to build depth on defense. They have two young quarterbacks still early in their rookie contracts (Trey Lance and Brock Purdy coming off elbow surgery) but also learned that you can never have enough quarterbacks. Enter former Jet Sam Darnold.

BRONCOS

Step One in Sean Payton’s plan to fix Russell Wilson is finding a way to protect his quarterback. That was how he found his best success in New Orleans. Wilson was sacked a league-high 55 times last season — while playing just 15 games! — so the Broncos spent a fortune on proven veterans in tackle Mike McGlinchey and guard Ben Powers. The long-term deals mean if Wilson can’t return to form (and he may not), at least the Broncos should have a decent line for their next big swing at the quarterback position. Adding defensive end  Zach Allen and re-signing linebacker Alex Singleton are solid defensive moves.

GIANTS

The last time the Giants made a splash in free agency trying to build around Daniel Jones they brought in Kenny Golladay, Kyle Rudolph and John Ross. Sigh. They’re trying it again, this time with decidedly more competent decision-makers. There are risks adding Darren Waller and Parris Campbell, both speckled with injury histories, but if they can remain healthy they should be useful tools for Brian Daboll’s offense. They certainly can’t be worse than the 2021 wave. Finally filling the void that was their inside linebacker spot with Bobby Okereke will stabilize the defense and if defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches allows Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams to catch their breath during games it should make both of them even more dangerous.

DOLPHINS

Last year they were one of the best teams in the league when they had their quarterback healthy. Now they have gotten better. Adding cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the defense wasn’t a free agency move — they traded for him from the Rams — but signing linebacker David Long at a contract well below what other inside ‘backers were getting could be the defensive steal of the offseason. In a division where the Dolphins are often overlooked, they could be very strong contenders. And if Tua Tagovailoa does get hurt again, hey, they now have former Jet and popular backup Mike White to lead them.

LOSERS

RAMS

How long will the Super Bowl hangover last in Los Angeles? For the foreseeable future if this offseason is any indication. The Rams have been as stagnant in free agency as they usually are on the first day of the draft (they haven’t made a first-round pick in seven years and won’t have one this year either), and their big acquisition has so far been Hunter Long, a tight end with one catch for eight yards in the last two seasons who arrived n the Ramsey trade to the Dolphins. At some point the Rams will start rebuilding. Right now they’re still in the process of demolishing what they had.

PACKERS

Forgetting about the Rodgers situation, which is a difficult task in and of itself these days, the Packers haven’t done much to help their offense and presumably a first-time starting quarterback in Jordan Love. While losing wide receiver Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan to other teams, the only real addition they have made to their roster is long-snapper Matt Orzech.

BENGALS

Signing Orlando Brown Jr. as the cornerstone to their offensive line is a big help for Joe Burrow and the offense, but the losses of safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates could be devastating to a defense that, despite all the offensive glitz, was truly the backbone of the team’s renaissance in recent years. That feels like a step backward for a team that had been ascending. Next up on their to-do list: The daunting task of figuring out how to keep Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins together on long-term deals.

VIKINGS

There wasn’t a whole lot of flexibility for the team with the least amount of cap space in the league, and after a disappointing end to their 2022 season, the Vikings haven’t upgraded much at any position other than defensive coordinator. Byron Murphy at cornerback was a good signing but at the cost of having to wave goodbye to three defensive veterans in Eric Kendricks, Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson — not to mention wide receiver Adam Thielen — only makes things more bleak up north.

ODELL BECKHAM JR.

He’s not a team but he is a franchise (sort of). The once great wide receiver has been devalued to the point of holding private showcase workouts to which only half the league bothered to show up, groveling on social media for former Giants teammates to tell their GM to call him, and, despite wanting to sign with a team as early as last November, still waiting to find someone who will take him on. Beckham, now 30 and with two torn ACLs, can still probably help someone’s offense, and his name popped up in that reported wish list that Rodgers passed along to the Jets, but he has yet to find what will almost certainly be his fourth home . . . assuming he ever does.

By Tom Rock

tom.rock@newsday.com@TomRock_Newsday

Tom Rock began covering sports for Newsday in 1996 and became its NFL columnist in 2022. He previously was Newsday's Giants beat writer beginning in 2008.