Week 17 Thursday Night Football pick: Can Cowboys cover against Titans?

DALLAS (11-4) AT TENNESSEE (7-8)

TV: Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m.

Dallas by 12.5; O/U: 39.5

A month ago, this Thursday Night Finale looked as if it would be a battle between playoff-bound teams. Now, only the Cowboys are certain to be playing in mid-January. The Titans, who were 7-3 after a TNF win at Green Bay, have lost five in a row. The most recent was a 19-14 loss to the lowly Texans at home on Christmas Eve. Tennessee’s huge lead in the AFC South is gone, as streaking Jacksonville is also 7-8 and atop the division because it currently owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

So, while TNF is technically a Dallas-Tennessee game, it’s really about the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup in Week 18. No matter what happens in Week 17, the winner of that regular-season finale is going to win the AFC South. That’s what makes this a tough game to pick. Will Tennessee sit some players and put all its focus on Week 18?

As bad as the Titans have looked, this spread seemed like a typo at first glance. Especially when you consider how well Mike Vrabel’s team has played as underdogs. When the Titans are getting four or more points, they are 13-4 against the spread under Vrabel. But with Ryan Tannehill out, the Titans are too reliant on Derrick Henry, who is listed as doubtful to play. The Cowboys, riding high after a big win over the Eagles that kept their slim hopes of winning the NFC East alive, should be able to make rookie quarterback Malik Willis beat them. 

He won’t, and considering this game doesn’t mean anything, there’s a chance the Titans can play it safe if they fall behind big early. Believe it or not, laying double digits on the road in Week 17 is the safer play.

The pick: Dallas

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.