Experts don't expect lost season for NFL

When sports economists pull back the curtain on existing NFL and NBA owner-player gyrations, the fevered speculation over lost seasons tends to break.

Maybe the NFL will invoke the dreaded lockout strategy this spring, when no games are scheduled, but experts seriously doubt there will be a work stoppage lasting into September, and they generally put the odds of an NBA blackout in 2011-12 near 50-50, at the worst.

Business is too good in America's two most successful pro leagues - for both owners and players. "It's just two pigs, one trough," said University of Chicago economics professor Allen Sanderson, who specializes in sports economics. "There's nothing in economic theory that says owners or players deserve all the money, so it's just what each can get through negotiation."

Their haggling drill is set in motion by expiring collective-bargaining agreements - this week in the NFL and by late June in the NBA - raising the specter of the NHL's canceled 2004-05 season, when ownership calculated that gaining implementation of a salary cap was worth losing a year's revenue.

But that doomsday scenario involved significantly reshaping the business model, said University of Michigan sports management professor Rodney Fort.

"Both in the NFL and the NBA now, the only thing they're fighting over is the share of the pie," Fort said. "It's a big pie, a growing pie. And the only issue is: 'I want a piece of your slice.' "

Fort argued there "are not fundamental issues about survival of the owners or long-term welfare of the players. Right now, the highest probability - based on history and the fact they're arguing over the pie - is that we'll have both football and basketball at the beginning of next season."

The NFL and NFL Players Association are scheduled to resume talks with a federal mediator Tuesday in Washington. There has been very little progress, so a work stoppage after midnight Thursday appears more likely.

Enough for both sides

Among those who agree that NFL owners "are not stupid enough to eliminate the season" is Susan Tose Spencer, who was Eagles vice president in 1982 when the NFL lost seven regular-season games to a players' strike.

Then, players demanded a larger portion of the revenue; this time, she said, "the owners are trying to get [a larger percentage of] that money back. But I don't think they're going to lose any games. With the games we lost [in '82], everybody lost."

And the NBA?

"I don't want to say which is a better business model," Sanderson said. "But in the NFL, no team can lose money unless the whole league loses money. You just don't have the haves and have-nots. In the NBA, you have a big-market, small-market divide, and the way its money is shared, you do have haves and have-nots.

"Owners have more concerns in the NBA. I'm not saying they're losing money, but they're thinking that their ship is starting to list."

Because the NFL agreement expires first, Sanderson said, "The NBA has a lot to learn from watching the NFL line up this putt. How much fan backlash is there if things go south? Or, if the NFL beats back the players, that will embolden the NBA. I know I'd rather be going second in this situation."

The dichotomy is that the NFL, while better equipped than the NBA to survive a work stoppage because of its superior revenue-sharing arrangement and much richer TV contract (and a guarantee of some TV money even if no football is played), is far less likely to take such a risk.

"Why? Because there's not enough difference between the owners and players to justify them killing the [golden] goose," said Northeastern law professor Roger Abrams, who has arbitrated hundreds of salary disputes.

"The goose has been running up and down the field all season long. Small-market teams, Green Bay against Pittsburgh, and they set a Super Bowl viewing record? Gimme a break. The NFL is in wonderful shape."

A lot of posturing

As a weapon in labor talks, the union has hinted at decertification, which potentially could block the lockout and allow the players to bring an antitrust violation against the owners.

"Then you move from the bargaining table to the courtroom," Feldman said. "Both sides recognize that, which is why it wouldn't surprise me if they reach an agreement to extend the expiration of the CBA and keep talking."

Fort said when a labor scrum is "just about the pie, you have this posturing. Each side yells about how they'll never meet in the middle. Then, lo and behold, March 3 rolls around and suddenly they're talking and saying, 'We're not as far apart as we thought.' "

By late summer, everyone should be feeling much better.