NFL Week 4 betting odds and picks

Getting four people to agree on something is not an easy task . . . unless it’s picking NFL games. Four weeks and 64 games into the season, Newsday’s NFL picks panel has unanimously agreed on 24 games (six this week). And, as you may have guessed, our combined record in those games entering Week 4 was 6-11-1. As a loyal reader likes to point out when we all pick the same game, that’s never a good sign. Moral of the story: When it seems obvious, it usually isn’t.

Underdogs went 6-9-1 against the spread (ATS) last week but still lead, 25-20-3, for the season.

My most confident picks ATS are Philadelphia, Kansas City and Seattle. Stay away from the two 0-3 vs. 0-3 matchups, and be careful with the London game.

LONDON GAME

ATLANTA (2-1) VS. JACKSONVILLE (1-2)

TV: ESPN+, 9:30 a.m.

Jacksonville by 3; O/U: 43.5

Jacksonville will be the first team to play in London in back-to-back weeks (Buffalo next Sunday). Considering how the Jaguars have looked, a getaway is just what they need. Atlanta beat the Jets in London in 2021, so there shouldn’t be too much of a culture shock (though Drake London, its 2022 first-round pick, is making his debut there). Picking London games is never easy because of all the variables, but the Jaguars can stop the run, which is the formula to beat the Falcons.

The pick: Jacksonville

1 p.m. Games

GAME OF THE WEEK

MIAMI (3-0) AT BUFFALO (2-1)

TV: CBS

Buffalo by 3; O/U: 53.5

70-20. 37-3. Expect a much closer game between these two AFC heavyweights after last week’s one-sided knockouts. According to CBS Sports, this is only the 11th time in NFL history that a matchup features two teams coming off wins by at least 34 points. Buffalo’s commanding win at Washington was impressive, but Miami (3-0 ATS) stole the show with a 50-point drubbing of the Broncos. What will it do for an encore? Buffalo doesn’t have weather on its side, as the forecast calls for 78 degrees and sunny. And while Josh Allen may own the Dolphins (8-2 record with 27 TDs to just 5 INTs), last season’s matchups showed that Miami has closed the gap thanks to coach Mike McDaniel’s mind, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s arm and the legs of the fastest offense in the NFL. Miami lost, 32-29, late in the season at Buffalo and then gave Buffalo a fight in a 34-31 wild-card loss, and that was with its third-string QB. Miami’s motion-happy offense looks unstoppable now, and if you want to pick against them, be my guest.

The pick: Miami 

BALTIMORE (2-1) AT CLEVELAND (2-1)

Cleveland by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

Cleveland’s No. 1-ranked defense is allowing 163.7 yards per game, nearly 100 fewer than the next team. It held Cincinnati and Tennessee to three points apiece, and even in the Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh, never let the Steelers’ offense enter the red zone. Lamar Jackson is 6-3 against Cleveland, but Myles Garrett should feast against a hurting Ravens offensive line.

The pick: Cleveland

CINCINNATI (1-2) AT TENNESSEE (1-2)

Cincinnati by 2.5; O/U: 41

Joe Burrow toughed it out as the Bengals avoided an 0-3 start. The Titans were embarrassed in a 27-3 loss at Cleveland, so it’s tempting to take a team back home in that spot. Still, they’re offensively challenged and the Bengals’ MNM (Monday Night Momentum) should carry over.

The pick: Cincinnati

PITTSBURGH (2-1) AT HOUSTON (1-2)

Pittsburgh by 3; O/U: 41.5

No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud is setting records and gaining fans, as Texans great J.J. Watt gave him a shout-out on social media after a big win at Jacksonville. Here’s the problem, though: J.J. forgot to mention little brother T.J., the Steelers’ All-Pro edge rusher who leads the NFL with six sacks and should have a field day against a Texans O-line dealing with injuries.

The pick: Pittsburgh

LOCK OF THE WEEK

WASHINGTON (2-1) AT PHILADELPHIA (3-0)

TV: Fox

Philadelphia by 8.5; O/U: 43.5

Jalen Hurts is 20-1 in his last 21 regular-season starts. Yep, you guessed it: The one loss was to Washington, at home last year on MNF when the Eagles were 8-0. We saw how Washington looked against a contender last week: 37-3 loss to Buffalo in which Sam Howell was intercepted four times and sacked nine times. Hurts, D’Andre Swift and the Philadelphia offense land some big punches early and the pass rush makes Howell throw in the towel. 

The pick: Philadelphia

TAMPA BAY (2-1) AT NEW ORLEANS (2-1)

New Orleans by 3.5; O/U: 39.5

With Derek Carr likely out, we get Jameis Winston against the team that drafted him first overall in 2015. These teams have bad blood (Google “Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore”). It’s a toss-up, so I like getting the points. The other No. 1 pick, Baker Mayfield, and a solid Bucs defense should show up after a poor MNF outing.

The pick: Tampa Bay

L.A. RAMS (1-2) AT INDIANAPOLIS (2-1)

Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 45.5

Don't ask me how I remember this, but Sean McVay's Rams coaching debut was a 46-9 win over Indianapolis in 2017. Now it’s Colts first-year coach Shane Steichen who is the offensive-minded wunderkind (though, at 38, he’s still a year younger than McVay). This could go either way, but the young Colts are playing with some confidence after a big OT win at Baltimore and they’re home.

The pick: Indianapolis

MINNESOTA (0-3) AT CAROLINA (0-3)

Minnesota by 4; O/U: 46.5

Last week the Vikings lost a battle of 0-2 teams. This week they’ll win a battle of 0-3 teams.

The pick: Minnesota

DENVER (0-3) AT CHICAGO (0-3)

Denver by 3.5; O/U: 46

"One of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history." That's what Sean Payton said about Nathaniel Hackett's one-and-done year in Denver last season. He could've said the same thing about himself after last week's 50-point loss at Miami. The good news: Chicago is an even bigger 0-3 mess.

The pick: Denver 

4 p.m. Games

NEW ENGLAND (1-2) AT DALLAS (2-1)

TV: Fox

Dallas by 6.5; O/U: 43.5

Dallas should still be considered a contender after last week’s desert debacle. The Cowboys will bounce back, but the spread might be too high considering their offensive line is banged up and the Patriots’ strong point is their pass rush.

The pick: New England

ARIZONA (1-2) AT SAN FRANCISCO (3-0)

San Francisco by 14; O/U: 44.5

The 49ers could be looking ahead to next week's SNF matchup with the Cowboys. The Cardinals (3-0 ATS) have been one of the NFL's best first-half teams, so I’ll take the 14-0 head start.

The pick: Arizona 

LAS VEGAS (1-2) AT L.A. CHARGERS (1-2)

Los Angeles by 5.5; O/U: 49.5

The Chargers' season: 2-point loss, 3-point loss in OT, 4-point win. This is a big spread for a team that always plays close games, but maybe this is the week they don't have to sweat one out.

The pick: L.A. Chargers 

SUNDAY NIGHT

KANSAS CITY (2-1) AT JETS (1-2)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Kansas City by 9.5; O/U: 41.5

Why couldn’t this be Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes? As long as Zach Wilson is the quarterback, the Jets have no chance. Even if the defense holds Mahomes to 20-24 points, you can't trust the offense to cover this big number. Fill in the blank spaces: The only excitement about this game is wondering if ________ ______ will again be in attendance cheering on Travis Kelce. 

The pick: Kansas City 

MONDAY NIGHT

SEATTLE (2-1) AT GIANTS (1-2)

TV: ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, 8:15 p.m.

Seattle by 1.5; O/U: 47.5

One of the downsides to playing so many prime-time games is that when things are going poorly, it's even more magnified. Seeing this Giants defense up close, they have a big problem: they can't tackle! If they could've stopped the 49ers on third-and-long, they would've had a shot in what was a close-ish game for three quarters. Like San Francisco, Seattle features some studs on offense and I don't like this matchup for Big Blue. Geno Smith wins in his return to MetLife Stadium.

The pick: Seattle 

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.