NFL Black Friday, weekend betting guide: Week 12 picks and plays

BLACK FRIDAY GAME

MIAMI (7-3) AT JETS (4-6), 3 p.m.

Dolphins by 9.5; O/U: 41 (Prime Video, Ch. 5)

In promoting the NFL’s first Black Friday Game, Amazon used The Rolling Stones’ “Paint It, Black” as the backdrop. Considering it will be former Packers quarterback Tim Boyle, and not Aaron Rodgers, leading the Jets in the standalone game, let’s change the lyrics from a TV perspective: They see a green door / And they want to take it back. There’s two ways to approach this from a betting angle. Door No. 1: Just lay the points with the Dolphins and all their offensive weapons or Door No. 2: Back the Jets at home in a “nobody believes in us” spot and hope the defense shows up like it did in the Eagles win. Maybe the other offensive players will feed off the much-needed QB change. If Boyle can get the Jets to 10-14 points, they can cover what feels like a semi-inflated number. The Dolphins have mostly been held in check on the road and this is a time for the Jets’ defense to back up the big talk. Ah, if only Rodgers was playing. As Jets fans know all too well, you can’t always get what you want.

The pick: Jets

ANY TIME TD SCORER

Kansas City (7-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-6), 4:25 p.m.

Travis Kelce (-110). The Kansas City tight end is used to being in the spotlight, but this week it was for the wrong reasons. He caught a touchdown on MNF, but his fumble inside the 10-yard line with KC leading 17-14 proved costly. Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target will make up for this week against a Raiders team he has strong numbers against for his career: 100 catches for 1,289 yards and 10 TDs in 18 games.

GOT THEIR NUMBER!

LOCK OF THE WEEK

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-3) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (6-4), 1 p.m.

Jacksonville -1.5; O/U: 47.5

For whatever reason, Houston owns Jacksonville, holding a 29-14 lead in the all-time series. The Texans had won nine in a row before last season’s Week 17 defeat, which in turn helped them get the No. 2 pick and draft C.J. Stroud. He picked up where his predecessors left off, earning his first NFL win with a 37-17 victory at Jacksonville in Week 3. With first place in the AFC South on the line, all the pressure is on the established Jaguars. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans, the 49ers’ defensive coordinator last season, can pick up more ways to shut down Trevor Lawrence and Jags after watching tape of San Francisco’s 34-3 win at Jacksonville in Week 10.

The pick: Houston

LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-6) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-9)

L.A. by 1.5; O/U: 44.5

Sean McVay started out 8-0 vs. the Cardinals and is now 12-2 after a 26-9 win in Week 6. Kyler Murray is 1-6 vs. the Rams, and even though Arizona is a feisty two-win team, its defense has shown time and time again it can’t keep up with good offenses. The Rams can build on last week’s comeback vs. Seattle and stay in the conversation for a wild-card spot.

The pick: L.A. Rams

BEST OF THE REST

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-8) AT GIANTS (3-8), 1 p.m., Fox

New England by 3.5; O/U: 34

This is a far cry from those super Pats-Giants matchups starring Tom Brady and Eli Manning. The Pats, off a bye, have even bigger QB issues than the Giants. Like last week (Washington -9.5), this spread is a head-scratcher. The Pats shouldn’t be favored on the road vs. anyone. Tommy DeVito over a Bill Belichick-led defense? Welcome to the 2023 season!

The pick: Giants

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-4) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-5), 1 p.m., CBS

Pittsburgh by 1.5; O/U: 35.5

Don’t be so fast to jump off the Bengals’ bandwagon. Sure, they’re not going to make the playoffs without Joe Burrow, but they can rally around Jake Browning and win a low-scoring game against a Steelers team that just fired their offensive coordinator. Having those three extra days to prepare should help Cincinnati.

The pick: Cincinnati

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-5) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (4-6), 1 p.m.

New Orleans by 1.5; O/U: 41.5

Both teams are off the bye as they battle for first place in the “Well, Someone’s Gotta Win It” NFC South. According to Tankathon.com — yes, that’s a real website — the NFL’s four easiest remaining schedules belong to Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina (hmm, I wonder why). Desmond Ridder is back at QB for the Falcons, and the Saints’ defense has the big edge in that matchup.

The pick: New Orleans

BUFFALO BILLS (6-5) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-1), 4:25 p.m., CBS

Philadelphia by 3; O/U: 48.5

The Eagles had no business winning at KC, but kudos to them for always finding a way — except vs. the Jets. The Bills won’t have as easy a time vs. this green team.

The pick: Philadelphia

CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-3) AT DENVER BRONCOS (5-5), 4:05 p.m.

Denver by 1.5; O/U: 36.5

“The Drive.” “The Fumble.” Browns-Broncos brings back memorable playoff games (well, not for everyone). This one is all about “The Defense.” Cleveland has the No. 1 group, and Denver has forced 12 turnovers over its last three games. Yes, Denver has won four in a row, but the last two were by a combined three points, so this spread could be a factor.

The pick: Cleveland

BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-3) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (4-6), 8:20 p.m., NBC

Baltimore by 3.5; O/U: 47.5 

One of these teams has lived up to the hype. Hint: It’s not the Chargers. Five of their six defeats have been by a combined 14 points. The Ravens, off extra rest after the TNF win, stay atop AFC.

The pick: Baltimore

CHICAGO BEARS (3-8) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-5), 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Minnesota by 3; O/U: 43.5

The Vikings’ five-game win streak was snapped in a one-point loss at Denver. Minn-e-so-what! They’re still on a 6-0 run ATS. This team has battled back from adversity all season and will do so again before its bye week.

The pick: Minnesota

THE PROP SHOP

Tua Tagovailoa, Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-114). 

When looking for a prop, I saw this one and before I saw the actual number thought to myself, "247." So here we are. Picking a quarterback to go under against the Jets defense didn't work for me last week in Buffalo, but let's take another shot. The Jets allow the fifth fewest passing yards per game at 178.7, and Tagovailoa's numbers aren't as strong away from Miami (193 vs. KC in Germany and 216 at Philadelphia in those last two instances).

BET TO THE FUTURE

Most regular season receiving yards: CeeDee Lamb (+700) or A.J. Brown (+700). Tyreek Hill (-175) has 1,222 yards, but the NFC East stars have 1,013 each and possess the ability to post big games. Lamb had 617 of his 1,013 yards during a four-game span recently, and Brown had 127 or more yards during Weeks 3-8. Can they catch up?

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.