NFL Thursday Night Football: Cowboys-Seahawks betting angles
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver KaVontae Turpin (9) celebrates with running back Tony Pollard (20) after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Commanders during the second half of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 23, 2023, in Arlington, Texas. Credit: AP/Michael Ainsworth
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-5) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (8-3)
TV: Prime Video, 8:15 p.m.
Odds: Dallas by 8.5; O/U: 47.5
(Odds from FanDuel, as of Wednesday night)
If last week’s Commanders-Cowboys Thanksgiving game was being televised in the Seahawks' locker room before their nightcap against the 49ers, they might have thought to themselves, “Wow, Dallas looks unstoppable at home.” Bad news for Seattle: It will get an up-close look Thursday night.
With both teams playing on the holiday, there’s no extra-rest advantage, a wise scheduling move by the NFL that we’ve seen from time to time recently. But they did the Seahawks no favors having this game played in Dallas, where Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are as close to unbeatable as any home team in the NFL (5-0 overall and against the spread). If the Cowboys could somehow earn home field in the playoffs — and that seems unlikely with Philadelphia (10-1) and San Francisco (8-3) having already beaten them — they could be Super Bowl-bound.
Dallas beat Washington last Thursday, 45-10, to continue a trend of visitors having no chance at Jerry’s World. The Jets (30-10), Patriots (38-3), Rams (43-20) and Giants (49-17) faced a similar fate. The Seahawks are playing themselves out of a playoff spot, losing two in a row and three of four. This result could be like Seattle's 31-13 loss to the 49ers last week, or even worse: the 37-3 loss at Baltimore in Week 9.
The pick: Dallas
SAME GAME PARLAY
CeeDee Lamb Any Time TD (-110) + Dak Prescott 3+ TD passes (+225) + Cowboys Total Points Over 28.5 (-104) = +375. This is banking on Dallas’ offense continuing to thrive at home. Lamb has a TD catch in three straight games. Prescott (23 TD passes) has thrown for three or more touchdowns in four of the last five games. Dallas hasn’t been held to under 29 points at home all season.
BONUS PLAY
Cowboys Alternate Spread -28.5 (+900). Nope, that’s not a typo. Dallas has been so dominant at home, it’s worth taking a (long) shot with this one. But remember, this is more of a “fun play.” How did I get to 28.5? Dallas has outscored its opponents at home by 145 points . . . divided by five . . . 29.
STAFF PICKS
Joe Manniello (80-92-8): Dallas
Tom Rock (89-83-8): Dallas
Al Iannazzone (89-83-8): Dallas
Kimberly Jones (79-93-8): Dallas
Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.
