NFL Week 13 picks and side bets

GAME OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

TV: Fox, 4:25 p.m.

San Francisco by 2.5; O/U: 47.5

The best matchup on the schedule is about the past (NFC Championship Game last season), present (Week 13) and future (NFC Championship game in a couple months). You can’t talk about one without talking about the other. The fact that San Francisco, and not the 10-1 hosts, are favored tells you a lot. It appears I’m not the only one back on the 49ers bandwagon after they started 5-0, lost three in a row and have since looked like a juggernaut during a three-game win streak after their bye. Brock Purdy and all of Kyle Shanahan’s countless offensive weapons are back on track, posting lopsided wins over the Jaguars (34-3), Buccaneers (27-14) and Seahawks (31-13). The Eagles will be their toughest test by far, but I think they’re up for it. Last year’s NFC title game was over before it started when Purdy had to leave with an injury. If that’s not motivation enough, a win and San Francisco has a shot at the NFC’s 1 seed. Give the Eagles credit for continually finding ways to win games that looked as if they had no chance to win (the last two especially, at Kansas City on MNF and vs. Buffalo). But all those close calls eventually catch up to a team, and while Jalen Hurts & Co. had to slog through the rain and overtime last Sunday, the 49ers kicked back and relaxed after their Thanksgiving rout. Hurts hasn’t looked 100%, and the Eagles are also dealing with some O-line injuries. That’s not good against the 49ers’ relentless D-line, which added Chase Young. He knows the Eagles well from his days with Washington, including two matchups earlier this season. This figures to be a fun, close game — what we should’ve had in last year’s NFC title game — but San Francisco is the most complete team in football, and it will show in a statement-making victory. (Note: This is also my lock of the week).

The pick: San Francisco

BEST OF THE REST

ATLANTA FALCONS (5-6) AT NEW YORK JETS (4-7), 1 p.m., Fox

Atlanta by 1.5; O/U: 34

The 5-6 Falcons are in first place. The 4-7 Jets have a less than 1% chance to make the playoffs. Such is life for Jets fans. I had buyer’s remorse on Black Friday when I bought in on the Jets at +9.5. But alas, there’s no return policy on bad picks . . . except if you’re the Dolphins (99 yards!). I’m 2-8-1 ATS picking Jets games (mostly in favor of them), so now that I’m fading them, you know what will happen.

The pick: Atlanta

DENVER BRONCOS (6-5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (6-5), 1 p.m.

Houston by 3.5; O/U: 47.5

Who had this game having huge AFC wild-card implications on their 2023 season bingo card? Denver has allowed 80 points during its five-game win streak, a remarkable stat considering earlier this season it allowed 70 points . . . in one game! This is a toss-up game, but if you think the underdog can win outright, you always take the points.

The pick: Denver

DETROIT LIONS (8-3) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-6), 1 p.m.

Detroit by 4.5; O/U: 46.5

Detroit’s dud on Thanksgiving was one of the shockers of the season to me. Still, it’s important not to put too much (turkey) stock into one game, and the Lions have been one of the more consistent teams all season (4-1 on the road). Dan Campbell’s guys will look more like the team that beat the Chargers, 41-38, in L.A. three weeks ago than the team that sleepwalked at home for much of the last two weeks.

The pick: Detroit

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-5) AT TENNESSEE TITANS (4-7), 1 p.m.

Indianapolis by 1.5; O/U: 42.5

The Colts won the first meeting, 23-16, in Week 5. Tennessee is 4-0 at home, though. Then again, it didn’t look that great in holding off one-win Carolina last week (is it obvious I’m not sure about this one?). The Colts are currently the AFC’s 7 seed, and the number 7, like that horseshoe logo of theirs, is lucky (told you I wasn’t sure).

The pick: Indianapolis

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-3) AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-8), 1 p.m.

Miami by 9.5; O/U: 49.5

The premiere of the “In Season Hard Knocks” with the Dolphins was fun, which is what offenses have been having against this Commanders defense. Can Miami make it back-to-back routs as big road favorites? Sure. But Washington has its bye next week, and in a lost season, maybe, just maybe, it will try to go into that week off on a high note.

The pick: Washington

CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-10) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-7), 4:05 p.m., CBS

Tampa Bay by 5.5; O/U: 36.5

This game is only highlighted because the Panthers fired their coach. Sometimes teams get fired up after that (see: 2023 Raiders and 2022 Colts).

The pick: Carolina

CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-4) AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-6), 4:25 p.m.

Los Angeles by 3.5; O/U: 39.5

Back-to-back wins over Seattle and Arizona isn’t enough for L.A. to be laying more than a field goal against the NFL’s No. 1 defense.

The pick: Cleveland

KANSAS CITY (8-3) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-6), 8:20 p.m., NBC,

Kansas City by 6; O/U: 42

Andy Reid last week earned his 125th regular-season victory as Kansas City coach, surpassing Hank Stram, who was the coach when KC and Green Bay faced off in the first Super Bowl. Jordan Love and the Packers are in the NFC wild-card picture after their impressive Thanksgiving win, so this could be close for a half. But Patrick Mahomes and KC will do what it did once it got going in the 31-17 win at Las Vegas. As Stram famously said, they’ll “keep matriculating the ball down the field.”

The pick: Kansas City

MONDAY NIGHT

CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-6) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-3), 8:15 p.m.

Jacksonville by 8.5; O/U: 38.5 (ESPN, ESPN2, ABC)

If Joe Burrow was playing, this spread might be a pick ‘em. Don’t pick ‘em to win, but the Bengals could cover what feels like an overreaction spread.

The pick: Cincinnati

ANY TIME TD SCORER

Braxton Berrios (+550). Sure, anyone can tell you Tyreek Hill is going to score a touchdown, but where’s the fun in that? Let’s look for more value. With Miami having a favorable matchup against a Washington defense that hasn’t stopped anyone all season, this has the potential for an offensive explosion. He only has one touchdown catch this season, but there’s also the chance the former Jet can take one to the house on a punt return.

BET TO THE FUTURE

Most Regular Season Sacks: Maxx Crosby (+900). This is all about the value: 9-1 odds with a player whose 11.5 sacks are only two off the NFL lead entering Week 13. As showcased during the Dolphins’ “In Season Hard Knocks” episode when Miami was watching tape of the Raiders, Crosby might have the best motor in the NFL. Five players are ahead of him, but all it takes is a three-sack game like he had against the Giants, for that to change.

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.