NFL odds for Week 7: Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints

JACKSONVILLE (4-2) AT NEW ORLEANS (3-3)

TV: Amazon Prime, 8:15 p.m.

New Orleans by 1.5; O/U: 39.5

This AFC South vs. NFC South matchup in the Big Easy is anything but easy to pick. I’ve backed the Jaguars just once this season, but that’s one more time than I’ve sided with the Saints. So, is this the week I finally change that trend? N-O.

Now for the “anything but easy” part: Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s status is listed as questionable after he suffered a left knee injury in Sunday’s 37-20 win over the Colts. If he’s playing, I feel comfortable backing a Jaguars team that has turned their season around after a 1-2 start. There was no letdown after the back-to-back London wins. The offense is hitting its stride.

If backup C.J. Beathard plays, it’s a different story. Based on what we know as of press time, it sounds as if Lawrence is going to tough it out and play. “I’m going to do everything I can to be out there,” he told reporters on Tuesday, the same day he was seen wearing a knee brace at practice.

The Saints probably need this game more than the Jaguars, as the NFC South is the only division in which no team has a fourth win (the Saints, Buccaneers and Falcons all have three). New Orleans' defense has been phenomenal (16 points per game), but the offense has struggled (18.2 ppg). Watching team highlights, it’s almost a constant loop of Derek Carr throwing checkdown passes to Alvin Kamara. The Jaguars are third-best at stopping the run (75.3 ypg), so if the Saints are to win, they’ll need to do it in the passing game.

This is the definition of a “stay-away game,” and playing the under might be the best route. But we pick every game, every week, and sometimes the injury report makes things more complicated. 

The pick: Jacksonville

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.