NFL Week 10 odds, betting plays and more game picks

Odds from FanDuel (as of Thursday night)

ANY TIME TD SCORER

Sam LaPorta, Detroit (+165)

The Lions' rookie tight end is quickly becoming one of Jared Goff's favorite receivers, getting a total of 28 targets over the last three games. LaPorta caught a TD pass in Detroit's last game, and has four on the season. He could be in for a big day against the Chargers' worst-ranked pass defense.

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville (-125)

This play worked for us two weeks ago, so like the Jaguars' offense, we're going to put the ball in the running back's hands again. Before last week's bye, Etienne had found the end zone in each of the last four games, including twice in Weeks 5-7. The 49ers' aggressive defensive line could play into Jacksonville's hands in the screen game. 

BEST BETS

DETROIT (-3) AT L.A. CHARGERS

Don’t be fooled by the Chargers’ back-to-back prime-time routs the last two weeks. Those were against the Bears and Jets, two teams that don’t have a quarterback who can pick on the NFL’s worst pass defense. The Lions do. Jared Goff (2,174 yards and 12 TDs) should have a field day throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown and LaPorta. Also working in Detroit’s favor: It is off a bye, and L.A. is on short rest having played on Monday night. This will feel like a home game for Detroit (3-1 on the road SU and ATS) as a reenergized fan base becomes the latest to take over SoFi Stadium.

UNDER 38.5, GREEN BAY AT PITTSBURGH. (CBS, 1 p.m.)

When two of the NFL’s worst offenses meet, go under. If 38.5 was the total in each team’s last four games, the under would’ve been 7-1.

BEST OF THE REST

GERMANY GAME

INDIANAPOLIS (4-5) VS. NEW ENGLAND (2-7), 9:30 a.m.

Indy by 1.5; O/U: 43.5 (NFL Network)

The Colts have a chance to get to .500. The Pats? They have the AFC’s worst record and it’s hard to imagine them being “up” for this game. Neither should you.

THE PICK: INDIANAPOLIS

SAN FRANCISCO (5-3) AT JACKSONVILLE (6-2), 1 p.m.

San Francisco by 3; O/U: 45.5 (Fox)

Will the bye reset the reeling 49ers? Or will the bye cool off the Jags (5-0 run, all covers)? Chase Young makes the 49ers’ D-line even more scary, but their secondary has been gashed during the three-game skid. This spread should be closer to a pick ’em.

THE PICK: JACKSONVILLE

NEW ORLEANS (5-4) AT MINNESOTA (5-4), 1 p.m.

New Orleans by 3; O/U: 40.5

The resilient Vikings (four wins in a row, all covers) now have the NFL’s most resilient quarterback in Joshua Dobbs. Don’t bet against him, especially when the wrong team is favored.

THE PICK: MINNESOTA

CLEVELAND (5-3) AT BALTIMORE (7-2), 1 p.m.

Baltimore by 6.5; O/U: 38.5

The way this Ravens team is rolling — 38-6 and 37-3 wins over Detroit and Seattle in their last two home games — there’s no reason to pick against them. They won, 28-3, at Cleveland in the first meeting.

THE PICK: BALTIMORE

HOUSTON (4-4) AT CINCINNATI (5-3), 1 p.m.

Cincinnati by 6.5; O/U: 47

The Bengals have won four in a row (all covers) and a letdown is unlikely as they must keep pace in the “everyone is 5-3 or better” AFC North. C.J. Stroud and the surprising Texans are on quite a ride, but this is a bad time to be facing the Bengals Express.

THE PICK: CINCINNATI

MONDAY NIGHT

DENVER (3-5) AT BUFFALO (5-4), 8:15 p.m.

Buffalo by 7: O/U: 46.5 (ESPN)

The same Broncos ‘D’ that gave up 70 points at Miami held KC to 28 . . . over two games! Denver, off a bye, can keep this close vs. a one-dimensional Bills offense.

THE PICK: DENVER

GIANTS PICK

DALLAS (-17.5). This is the largest point spread of the season, and for good reason. The Giants lost, 40-0, to the Cowboys in Week 1, and now third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito is running the offense. Dallas has been a buzzsaw at home: 30-10, 38-3 and 43-20 wins.

Final Score: Dallas 34, Giants 10

JETS PICK

JETS (-1). I’m 2-5-1 ATS picking Jets games, but I’m still willing to roll the dice with them in Vegas after the MNF debacle. Why? Because the ‘D’ that added Justin Herbert to their list of QBs dominated will face a rookie one, and the Raiders allow the second-most rushing yards.

Final score: Jets 20, Las Vegas 17

SAME GAME PARLAY

WILL LEVIS, TITANS: OVER 220.5 PASSING YARDS + OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs ( +249)

The Tennessee quarterback has a good matchup in his third NFL start. Tampa Bay, which allows the second-most passing yards per game at 279.4, let C.J. Stroud throw for a rookie-record 470 and 5 TDs last week.

BONUS PLAY: Titans-Bucs highest-scoring game on Sunday (+1700).

SUNDAY SPECIAL

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM (SUNDAY ONLY): BALTIMORE (+1800).

My first thought when seeing this option was to go with my “best bet” Detroit, which I expect to score in the low 30s. At +1000, the Lions are a strong play. But let’s try and get a little more bang for our buck with the AFC North powerhouse that has been dominating teams lately. The Ravens’ last three wins: 38-6, 31-24 and 37-3. Yes, the Browns have the No. 1-ranked defense in yards per game, and are third in points allowed (17.4), but Lamar Jackson and friends already dropped 28 on them earlier this season and at this value, it’s worth a shot. 

BET TO THE FUTURE

MINNESOTA TO MAKE PLAYOFFS: (YES, +104).

From 1-4 to 5-4 and knocking on the postseason door, the Vikings are in good position to grab the NFC’s final wild card. Their remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Broncos, vs. Bears, bye, at Raiders, at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers and at Lions. Even if they go 4-4, nine wins could be enough.

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.