Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens: Betting odds and plays for NFL Week 11 Thursday Night Football

THE PICK

BENGALS (+3.5)

If you sat through Panthers-Bears last week, consider Bengals-Ravens your reward. The best Thursday Night Football game of the season brings with it high stakes: Joe Burrow's Bengals need to win to have any chance of making the playoffs, let alone winning the AFC North, and Lamar Jackson's Ravens can strengthen their lead in the only division with every team over .500. Both teams enter off surprising losses at home, another reason the urgency is turned all the way up for this one.

So, what do you do when it's two evenly-matched teams with elite quarterbacks? Take. The. Hook. If this spread was 2.5, I might have taken Baltimore, which before Sunday's 33-31 meltdown loss to the Browns had been dominating teams at home. But anything over a field goal with Burrow is too tempting, especially when this game is a toss-up.

The Ravens won the first meeting, 27-24, in Week 2, but that was when Burrow's calf wasn't 100%. Even with receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) ruled out for a second straight game, Burrow still has Ja'Marr Chase and other weapons to pull off the road win. While Jackson being 7-2 against Cincinnati should give you pause, here's one stat to ignore: The Bengals have lost 13 prime-time road games in a row, but most of those were without Burrow.

THE PROP

Ja'Marr Chase Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Despite the big numbers (69 catches for 821 yards and 5 TDs), the star receiver has had an inconsistent season. Last week he had five grabs for 124 yards and a score after catching four for 41. It all depends on matchups and situations, of course, but the best players usually show up in prime time. Burrow's favorite target wasn't a factor in the first meeting with five catches for 31 yards. Also, the Ravens likely won't have cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who is listed as doubtful with a calf injury. 

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.