NFL Week 14 betting guide: Odds, picks and props

GAME OF THE WEEK

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-2) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (9-3)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Dallas by 3.5; O/U: 51.5

One advantage of playing a division rival twice is that if things go wrong the first time, you get another chance. That’s the case for Dallas, which left a bunch of points on the field in a 28-23 loss at Philly in Week 9. A touchdown on fourth-and-goal at the 1 that was overturned. The pass to CeeDee Lamb inside the 5 on the final play. Now, Dak Prescott has a chance to move Dallas into a tie for first place. Dallas is 6-0 at home, with the only non-cover being last week’s 41-35 win over Seattle on TNF. With extra time to prepare, the Cowboys’ home-field edge will be the difference in this high-scoring game. Don’t pick the Eagles just because you can’t see them losing two in a row after starting 10-1. Back the ’Boys, who have the offensive weapons to do what the 49ers did to the Eagles, too.

The pick: Dallas

SAME GAME PARLAY

Eagles-Cowboys Over (51.5) + Over Eagles Points (24.5) + Over Cowboys Points (27.5) = +236.

In the new Max series, "Bookie," Sebastian Maniscalco's character tells Ray Romano's character when he's placing a three-team parlay that it's hard enough to get one game right, let alone three. Truer words have never been spoken. So, stick with one game and don't overthink it, with an emphasis on the "over." If, like me, you think the Eagles-Cowboys game is going to be a points parade, take the over for each team's point total and the over for the game. Easy, right?

ANYTIME TD SCORER

Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals (+125). Joe Burrow's favorite target is now Jake Browning's favorite target: The star receiver had 11 catches on 12 targets for 149 yards and a TD in the MNF win. Expect Browning to look his way early and often in what could be a high-scoring game against a Colts team that has had its share of barnburners this season.

BATTLE OF THE BACKUP QBs

This has been the year of the backup quarterback, so it’s only fitting we have two head-to-head battles this late in the season.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-5) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-6)

Cincinnati by 1.5; O/U: 43.5

When I checked the lines on Sunday night, the Colts were 3-point road favorites. Then Monday night happened. Jake Browning had the game of his life, going 32-for-37 for 354 yards and a TD in a 34-31 overtime win at Jacksonville. Just like that, the Bengals’ outlook went from an “our season’s over” vibe to “don’t count us out just yet.” Gardner Minshew has done a nice job filling in for most of the season for Indianapolis, but this is the rare spot where the better team is basically a pick 'em. At home. Pounce.

The pick: Cincinnati

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-4) AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-5)

Cleveland by 3; O/U: 32.5

If the Jaguars couldn’t stop Jake Browning at home, what makes you think they’ll get the best of whoever starts for Cleveland in the Dawg Pound? Likely starter C.J. Beathard — it's hard to believe they'll rush back Trevor Lawrence that fast — will be in for a long day against the Browns’ No. 1 defense. Last week’s 36-19 loss to the Rams was a misleading final score: It would’ve been 20-20 midway through the fourth quarter if not for a missed extra point by the Browns.

The pick: Cleveland

BEST OF THE REST

HOUSTON TEXANS (7-5) AT NEW YORK JETS (4-8)

TV: CBS, 1 p.m.

Houston by 3.5; O/U: 33.5 

Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans have similar career paths: Former 49ers ‘D’ coordinators whose first year as head coaches included taking a quarterback at No. 2 overall in the draft. It has worked wonders for Ryans in Houston as C.J. Stroud is having a rookie season for the ages. Not so much for Saleh and Zach Wilson, who reportedly didn’t even want to be the starter again after being benched. He’s back, but there’s no reason to back the Jets, who have scored 6, 12, 6, 13 and 8 points during a five-game losing streak that also includes an 0-5 run against the spread. The Texans are fighting for a wild-card spot and even have a shot at the division.

The pick: Houston

LOS ANGELES RAMS (6-6) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-3), 1 p.m.

Baltimore by 7.5; O/U: 40.5

Baltimore has been dominant at home: 38-6 win over Detroit, 37-3 win over Seattle. But those were with star TE Mark Andrews, and in the Ravens’ last game before their bye, they had 13 points until a late TD sealed a win against the other L.A. team. The Rams have won three in a row to have a shot at a wild card, and this is just too many points. They’ll show up.

The pick: L.A. Rams

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-6) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (9-3), 4:05 p.m.

TV: Fox

San Francisco by 10.5; O/U: 46.5 

After last week’s 42-19 knockout punch in Philly, San Francisco looks as if it can crush anyone by 20-plus. It just beat Seattle on Thanksgiving night and won all three matchups last season. Still, this is too many points because unlike that first meeting this year, Seattle has had extra time to prepare after last week’s 41-35 loss at Dallas on TNF.

The pick: Seattle

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-6) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-7), 4:05 p.m.

Minnesota by 3; O/U: 40.5

The Vikings lost their last two before the bye by 1 and 2. The Raiders, also off a bye, could make it a 1-2-3 run. Close call, but is the wrong team favored?

The pick: Las Vegas

BUFFALO BILLS (6-6) AT KANSAS CITY (8-4), 4:25 p.m.

TV: CBS

Kansas City by 1.5; O/U: 48.5

This fun rivalry is all about one word this season: Urgency. Buffalo needs to win just to stay in the playoff conversation. KC is in danger of not being the 1 seed after losing two of three and not looking right offensively. The Bills have had two weeks to prepare for this “season on the line” game. Expect an all-out effort after the way they lost at Philadelphia in overtime two weeks ago.

The pick: Buffalo

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-6) AT NEW YORK GIANTS (4-8)

TV: ABC, 8:15 p.m.

Green Bay by 6.5; O/U: 37

The Giants haven’t lost in nearly a month thanks to a friendly schedule: Patriots, Commanders, bye. But this feels like another December to Remember for Matt LaFleur, who is an unbelievable 16-0 in the month as Packers coach. After impressive wins at Detroit and vs. Kansas City, the Packers will continue their resurgent march to the playoffs. This is a bigger mismatch than most probably realize.

The pick: Green Bay

TENNESSEE TITANS (4-8) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-3)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Miami by 13.5; O/U: 46.5

Let’s look at the motivation factor for this one. Miami, currently the AFC’s 1 seed, wants to keep winning as it gears up for the playoffs. Tennessee, last place in the AFC South, just fired its special teams coach after two blocked punts put the finishing touches on a lost season. The Titans are 0-6 on the road, the Dolphins 5-0 at home with only one game being close. This is a huge number, but it won’t feel that big when Miami is up 38-10 in the second half.

The pick: Miami

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.