NFL Week 16 betting guide: Game picks and anytime TD scorers

SATURDAY DOUBLEHEADER

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-6) AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-7), 4:30 p.m.

TV: NFL

Cincinnati by 2.5; O/U: 38.5

Next stop on The Jake Browning Revenge Tour: Pittsburgh. A week after beating the Vikings, a team that once cut him, the Bengals' backup quarterback-turned-starter looks to get payback from the only team he's lost to since taking over for Joe Burrow. Browning has led three straight wins after that 16-10 loss in Week 12 and now has the advantage of already seeing this defense a short time ago. The Steelers haven’t won since that game, scoring 10, 18 and 13 points. They’re now on their third-string quarterback, Mason Rudolph. As much as I'd like to back a guy named Rudolph on Christmas weekend, it's just been tough sledding for Pittsburgh's offense. 

The pick: Cincinnati

BUFFALO BILLS (8-6) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-9), 8 p.m.

TV: Peacock

Buffalo by 12.5; O/U: 43.5

It's the battle of "the team no one wants to play" vs. "the team everyone wants to play." Buffalo has turned its season around with back-to-back wins over Kansas City and Dallas. The Chargers fired their coach and GM after last week's 63-21 loss to the Raiders. With Bills fans taking over SoFi Stadium, this feels like another lopsided score.

The pick: Buffalo

SUNDAY'S BEST

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-10) AT NEW YORK JETS (5-9), 1 p.m.

TV: CBS

Jets by 3; O/U: 37.5

All I want for Christmas is to stop having to pick Jets games and Commanders games, two teams whose matchups I often get wrong. I must be on the "nice list" because this week they're playing each other, so at worst, I can go 0-1. Washington will have a new coaching staff next year, and if the Jets don't beat them at home, they might, too. After a 30-0 loss at Miami, the Jets can unleash their defensive line on Sam Howell (59 sacks).

The pick: Jets

CLEVELAND BROWNS (9-5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (8-6), 1 p.m.

Cleveland by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

I don't like roller-coasters, so it's a good thing I'm not a Browns fan. Every game is a ride, and this one should provide more twists and turns. Joe Flacco was phenomenal in leading the Browns' fourth-quarter comeback last week, and this team has some mojo. C.J. Stroud could miss his second straight game.

The pick: Cleveland

DETROIT LIONS (10-4) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-7), 1 p.m.

TV: Fox

Detroit by 3; O/U: 47

The Lions roared to a big win over the Broncos last Saturday night, a few hours after the Vikings gave a game away in Cincinnati. Minnesota, on its fourth quarterback, has been resilient all season and they'll find a way to win at home in a desperation spot. Two weeks ago, the Lions lost, 28-13, in Chicago.

The pick: Minnesota

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-6) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEEERS (7-7), 4:05 p.m.

Tampa Bay by 2.5; O/U: 41.5

The Jaguars have lost three in a row, all against the AFC North. Now they face a surprising Bucs team led by a former AFC North quarterback. Baker Mayfield, who threw for 381 yards and 4 TDs for a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field last week, has Tampa Bay in a good spot. Trevor Lawrence, his fellow former No. 1 pick, isn't 100%.

The pick: Tampa Bay

DALLAS COWBOYS (10-4) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-4), 4:25 p.m.

TV: Fox

Miami by 1.5; O/U: 50.5

It's easy to fade the Cowboys after last week's 31-10 loss at Buffalo. Still, it's usually a wise strategy to back good teams off bad losses. Miami is strong at home, but Dallas hasn't lost back-to-back games in more than two years.

The pick: Dallas

CHRISTMAS DAY TRIPLEHEADER

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (6-8) AT KANSAS CITY (9-5), 1 p.m.

TV: CBS

Kansas City by 10; O/U: 40.5

KC snapped a two-game skid with a 10-point win at New England last week but this spread feels too high. Yes, it beat Las Vegas, 31-17, in Week 12, a game it fell behind 14-0 early. The Raiders figure to be up for this rivalry game, and KC hasn't been consistent enough on offense to expect a rout.

The pick: Las Vegas

NEW YORK GIANTS (5-9) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-4), 4:30 p.m.

TV: Fox

Philadelphia by 13.5; O/U: 43

This is a lot of points for a division rivalry game, but the Giants are catching the Eagles at the wrong time. They have lost three in a row after a 10-1 start and Tommy DeVito might have a better chance dressing up as Santa in Philadelphia than dealing with the Eagles' pass rush. The Giants have allowed 76 sacks, the third most in NFL history, and this could snowball in a hurry.

The pick: Philadelphia

BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-3), 8:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN

San Francisco by 5.5; O/U: 46.5

Week 16 saved the best for last, and if these current 1 seeds stay in that spot, there's a good chance we'll see this matchup again in Las Vegas on the second Sunday in February. The 49ers have won six in a row —  all covers — by at least 12 points. They look unstoppable. The Ravens will be their toughest test yet, have a great defense, are sound at every level and boast the second best coach-QB duo in the league in John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. Still, they were lucky to escape the Rams at home a couple weeks ago and aren't quite on the 49ers' level. I mistakenly picked against the 49ers the last two weeks because of the large point spreads, but they have enough on both sides of the ball to win this game by at least a touchdown. 

The pick: San Francisco

ANYTIME TD SCORERS

Latavius Murray, Bills RB (+400). After the Chargers gave up 63 points to the Raiders last week, of course the Bills are the first team I thought of when looking for good bets in this category. Josh Allen (+110), James Cook (-125) and Stefon Diggs (+125) are the safer plays, but this gives you more bang for your buck. With this game possibly getting out of hand, that means more touches for everyone. Enter Murray, who has four touchdowns this season, including one last week in the win over Dallas.

David Njoku, Browns TE (+240). Browns fans aren't the only ones happy to see Joe Flacco running the show. Before he joined Cleveland, Njoku had two touchdown catches this season. Now? He's at five, after grabbing one last week and two the previous week. His numbers the last two weeks: 16 catches (on 22 targets) for 195 yards and the three scores. 

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.