NFL Week 17 betting guide: Game picks and anytime TD scorers

GAMES OF THE WEEK

DETROIT LIONS (11-4) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (10-5), Saturday, 8:15 p.m.

TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 

Dallas by 4.5; O/U: 52.5

The Lions can still be the NFC’s 1 seed. The Cowboys can still be the NFC East champs. This Saturday night fight could go 12 rounds with two talented teams battling for playoff positioning. Dallas’ chances of hosting a playoff game is unlikely after back-to-back losses for the first time in two years (Philadelphia, currently the 2 seed, closes against Arizona and the Giants). Dallas is 7-0 at home and should have enough to win a high-scoring game. This matchup reminds me of the only time Dallas didn’t cover at home this season, when it was an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday night in Week 13 and held off Seattle, 41-35. The Lions just clinched their first division title since 1993, but don’t expect the “letdown factor” to be in play here considering they can still be the 1 seed.

The pick: Detroit

MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-4) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-3), Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: CBS

Baltimore by 3.5; O/U: 46.5

This is a battle for the AFC’s 1 seed, and really, the NFL should’ve flexed this into prime time. Miami won a wild 42-38 thriller at Baltimore in Week 2 last season, the first sign that coach Mike McDaniel’s offense was never out of any game. Tua Tagovailoa threw four fourth-quarter TD passes in a 28-3 frame as the Dolphins stormed back from a 35-14 deficit. The Ravens’ ball-hawking defense won’t let anything close to that happen this time and must be feeling super after Monday night’s four-INT effort against Brock Purdy and the supposedly unbeatable 49ers (oops). The Dolphins haven’t been able to beat a contender on the road all season (see: losses at Buffalo and Philadelphia). They know that’s the narrative surrounding the season, and maybe it’s because I’m really enjoying the in-season “Hard Knocks,” but I could see them rallying around that and trying to make a statement. The Dolphins’ big-play ability means anything over a three-point spread is going to reel me in.

The pick: Miami

BEST OF THE REST

L.A. RAMS (8-7) AT GIANTS (5-10), 1 p.m.

TV: Fox

Los Angeles by 5.5; O/U: 44.5

The Giants are officially out of it now, but that doesn’t mean Brian Daboll’s guys won’t bring it for the last two games at home. Sean McVay’s guys just have more talent and are fighting for a wild-card spot. Don’t be scared off by the “cross-country, 1 p.m. start for a West Coast team” angle because the Rams are off extra rest after their TNF win over the Saints. The Rams have won five of six to get to this spot, and the lone loss in that stretch was a 37-31 overtime thriller at Baltimore.

The pick: L.A. Rams

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-12) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-4), 1 p.m.

Philadelphia by 10.5; O/U: 48

The Eagles’ offense vs. the Cardinals’ defense is a big mismatch. But here’s the ‘ex’ factor: Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon was the Eagles’ defensive coordinator last season, and there’s no way that doesn’t give him an advantage against an offense he saw every day (maybe he knows the secret to stopping the “tush push!”). For a three-win team, Arizona has been a feisty bunch all season, and don’t be surprised if it hangs around the way the Giants did on Christmas night.

The pick: Arizona

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-8) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-7), 1 p.m.

Tampa Bay by 2.5; O/U: 42.5

Baker Mayfield isn’t going to win MVP, but he should be in the conversation. The Bucs won, 26-9, at New Orleans in Week 4. This should be a lot closer considering what’s at stake, but Tampa Bay has been the more consistent team all season.

The pick: Tampa Bay

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-11) AT BUFFALO BILLS (9-6), 1 p.m.

Buffalo by 13.5; O/U: 40.5

The Patriots’ 29-25 win over the Bills in Week 7 was one of this season’s biggest shockers. The Bills’ [insert lopsided score here] win on Sunday won’t be. Josh Allen and Buffalo are heating up at just the right time, winners of its last three and still in line for the division title.

The pick: Buffalo

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-8) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-7), 1 p.m.

Indianapolis by 3.5; O/U: 43.5

When these teams played last year, it was then-Colts interim coach Jeff Saturday’s first game, and it led to a stunning win. Now the roles are reversed in that Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce could help his chances of keeping the job if Las Vegas makes a run at a wild card. It wasn’t shocking that the Raiders won at KC on Christmas Day, just in how they won: Aidan O’Connell didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter! Two defensive TDs were a big help. This feels like a back-and-forth, “game you’ll see on NFL RedZone most often.” Maxx Crosby could wreck another game.

The pick: Las Vegas

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-7), 4:05 p.m.

Seattle by 3.5; O/U: 41.5

Mike Tomlin vs. Pete Carroll is about as good as it gets from a coaching chess match. With both teams still in the wild-card hunt, and Tomlin’s streak of never having a losing season getting a boost last week, take the points.

The pick: Pittsburgh

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-7) AT KANSAS CITY (9-6), 4:25 p.m.

TV: CBS

Kansas City by 7; O/U: 43.5

What has been the marquee matchup the last couple of seasons has lost some luster this year, with Joe Burrow injured and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense far from super. The Bengals’ 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh last week was shocking. With the way KC is playing, this is a lot of points. But after the Christmas debacle against the Raiders, this could be a great bounce-back spot against a Bengals team that may have finally run out of gas.

The pick: Kansas City

GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-8) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-8), 8:20 p.m.

TV: NBC

Minnesota by 1.5; O/U: 44.5

There is no Monday night game this week, so ring in the new year with these two NFC North rivals that went from looking as if they both could make the playoffs a few weeks ago to both possibly being left out. In a (coin) toss-up game with a spread below three, take the home team.

The pick: Minnesota

ANYTIME TD SCORERS

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay (+120). Baker Mayfield's favorite target and one of the NFL's more underrated receivers continues to put up big numbers. His 13 touchdown catches are tops in the league. Six of those have been over the last five games, including two last week and one the week before. The Bucs and Saints don't like each other, and with Evans only having three catches for 40 yards and being held out of the end zone in the first meeting, expect a big game.

San Francisco defense (+430). It's rare that the 49ers' elite defense takes a back seat, but that was the case last Monday night as the Ravens stole the show with four interceptions and a huge road win. Taking a defense to score is always about the value, and considering the circumstances and the Commanders counting down the days to the season being over, this feels like a good spot for a pick-6 or fumble return for a touchdown.

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.