Patriots head coach Bill Belichick walks off the field after...

Patriots head coach Bill Belichick walks off the field after a 6-0 loss to the Chargers following an NFL game Sunday in Foxborough, Mass. Credit: AP/Michael Dwyer


TV: Prime Video, 8:15 p.m.

Odds: Pittsburgh by 6; O/U: 30.5

(Odds from FanDuel, as of Wednesday evening)

The Patriots have held their last three opponents to 10, 10 and 6 points. A nice little three-game winning streak . . . wait, what's that? New England lost all three of those games? Yep, it's been that kind of historically bad season in Foxborough for Bill Belichick & Co. The Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to give up 10 or fewer points in three straight games and lose each of them (10-6 to the Colts in London, 10-7 at the Giants and 6-0 at home against the Chargers on Sunday). 

The Steelers' offense hasn't been much better, and now they're without quarterback Kenny Pickett after he was injured in Sunday's 24-10 loss at home to Arizona. Pittsburgh has scored 13, 16 and 10 points the last three weeks, but New England has been so bad offensively that there's no other choice than to the lay the number here and hope the Steelers' defense does its thing at home in prime time and wins a 13-6 kind of game. Mitch Trubisky is a solid enough of a backup to exploit a bad Patriots secondary. George Pickens and Diontae Johnson have favorable matchups. 

The pick: Pittsburgh


Under 30.5 Total Game Points + Under 17.5 Steelers Points + Under 12.5 Patriots Points (+237). It's never fun betting unders in the NFL with all the high-powered offenses, but if there's one matchup to go all-in on the under, this is it. According to StatMuse, the 30.5 over/under is the lowest since the 1993 season. This will be a run-heavy, wear-out-the-clock kind of win for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin, one of the smartest coaches in the game, knows that an early lead — even 3-0 — will feel like 30-0 against this Pats offense. 


Joe Manniello (87-98-8): Pittsburgh

Tom Rock (96-89-8): Pittsburgh

Al Iannazzone (95-90-8): New England

Kimberly Jones (84-101-8): Pittsburgh

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