5 Islanders to watch in the playoff stretch run

The Islanders will come out of the Olympic break in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and still essentially controlling their postseason fate.

They sit third in the Metropolitan Division with 69 points and 24 games remaining; some projections for the playoff cutoff are between 97 and 100 points. The Islanders are one point behind the second-place Penguins, who have played two fewer games, and four points ahead of the Blue Jackets, who also have played two fewer games and won seven straight, and the Capitals, who have 23 games left.

So going 13-8-3 to close the season might be good enough to get the Islanders into the playoffs after last season’s miss.

The Islanders, who resume practice on Tuesday and resume play in Montreal on Feb. 26, have not won a playoff round since reaching the NHL semifinals in 2021.

How likely is it that they will reach the postseason? Well, it depends upon which algorithm you trust. PlayoffStatus.com calculates the Islanders have a 74.0% chance of making the playoffs. HockeyReference.com lists them at 68.9%. MoneyPuck.com has them at just 58.7%.

But none of those calculations will mean anything without certain contributions. So here are five Islanders to watch in the final 24 games:

Ilya Sorokin

Of course it starts with the Islanders’ No. 1 goalie, who is 20-13-2 with a 2.44 goals-against average, a .916 save percentage and six shutouts, making him a strong Vezina Trophy candidate. The advanced analytics give more context: MoneyPuck.com calculates that Sorokin is leading the NHL with a goals saved above expected of 27.8 even though his expected goals against of 112.82 is the fourth highest in the league. Sorokin has won eight of his last 11 starts with three shutouts and will get the bulk of the playing time in the final 24 games. Backup David Rittich (12-8-3, 2.57 GAA, .900 save percentage) also will have a crucial role with five sets of back-to-back games remaining.

Matthew Schaefer

Nothing was amiss with the rookie’s game leading into the Olympic break, but it will bear watching just how beneficial the long rest will prove to be as Schaefer navigates an 82-game NHL schedule for the first time. Even his father said Schaefer could use the time off. The Islanders already rely heavily on Schaefer as a playmaker, a power-play quarterback and a defensive presence. He will have 24 games left to get the two goals he needs to break Hall of Famer Phil Housley’s record of 17 goals as an 18-year-old defenseman.

Bo Horvat

Actually, the time to watch Horvat is right now as he plays for Team Canada in the Olympics, if only to make sure the Islanders’ leading goal-scorer does not suffer another injury in international competition and is available when the NHL season resumes. Remember, Horvat had to drop out of the 2025 IIHF World Championships with a lower-body injury. Horvat, who has 24 goals and 16 assists in 44 games, missed a combined 14 games in December and January with separate but similar lower-body injuries. The Islanders simply cannot withstand a third lineup absence from their top-line center.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

The to-watch-for here is whether general manager Mathieu Darche sticks to his stated comfort of retaining the pending unrestricted free agent past the March 6 trade deadline without a new deal in place. There’s been no indication that an extension is in the offing right now, and the industry expectation is that Pageau likely will find a more lucrative deal from another team in the offseason as Darche looks to leave roster spots for prospects or other acquisitions. But replacing Pageau’s work as a third-line center, an elite faceoff taker and on the penalty kill would be difficult for the playoff push. Much of the same could be said of Anders Lee, though his return next season seems more plausible.

Ondrej Palat

Darche acquired the 34-year-old left wing from the Devils on Jan. 27 and he’s performed well in six games as an Islander, skating with Horvat and Mathew Barzal. He has a goal and two assists and has displayed a strong ability to go into the corners and retrieve the puck for his playmaking linemates. He also has provided a goal-line presence on the power play. But Palat, playing for Czechia in the Olympics, had only four goals and six assists in 51 games for the Devils. The Islanders cannot afford to have his scoring lag as it did in New Jersey because there already are production questions surrounding supposed scoring wings Jonathan Drouin, who has three goals for the season and none in his last 34 games, and Anthony Duclair, a healthy scratch in the last game before the Olympic break.

By Andrew Gross

andrew.gross@newsday.comAGrossNewsday

Andrew Gross joined Newsday in 2018 to cover the Islanders. He began reporting on the NHL in 2003 and has previously covered the Rangers and Devils. Other assignments have included the Jets, St. John’s and MLB.