Analytics say Islanders' remaining strength of schedule is favorable

The New England Patriots reached Super Bowl LX after playing what was rated as the NFL’s third-easiest schedule in the past 50 seasons. Their 17 regular-season opponents had a combined winning percentage of .391.

Coach Mike Vrabel and his players downplayed that significance as they successfully navigated the AFC playoff bracket. But a lopsided 29-13 loss to Seattle gave renewed credence to the notion that the Patriots were simply a product of their schedule and that strength of schedule does matter.

The NHL, akin to the NFL, tends to be known for its general parity. The Islanders will need to take advantage of that as they resume their season after the Olympic break on Thursday in Montreal seeking to hold on to a playoff spot with 24 games remaining.

PowerRankingsGuru.com rated the Islanders’ remaining schedule as the 14th hardest in the 32-team league. The Islanders are in third place in the Metropolitan Division and the second-place Penguins, who have played two fewer games, are rated to have the NHL’s toughest remaining schedule. The algorithm ranks the teams 1 through 32 and then calculates the opponents’ average rank.

The Penguins’ average opponent rank is 12.52 and the Islanders’ is 15.95.

“I think every team is good,” Mathew Barzal told Newsday as the Islanders resumed practicing this week at Northwell Health Ice Center in East Meadow. “I think the parity in this league is so high. You can go into a team that’s under .500 at home, but any game on the road is hard.”

Tankathon.com also calculated the Penguins to have the NHL’s toughest remaining schedule with a percentage of .590. Its algorithm also ranked the Islanders 14th at .570.

Also according to Tankathon.com, the Islanders will exit the Olympic break facing two of their tougher opponents in the playoff push.

The Canadiens are second in the Atlantic Division — it’s the first of three games between the teams through April 12 — and the Blue Jackets, who also have played two fewer games, went into the Olympic break on a seven-game winning streak under new coach Rick Bowness to move four points behind the Islanders in fourth place in the division.

The Islanders are in Columbus next Saturday for the first of two games remaining against the Blue Jackets.

In all, 15 of the Islanders’ final 24 games are against teams currently outside of a playoff spot.

But for all the advanced analytics at the Islanders’ disposal, strength of schedule is not one the players consult.

“I haven’t really seen that, to be honest,” rookie center Cal Ritchie told Newsday. “It’s the NHL. Every team can be good, can be one of the better teams in the league every night. We’ve just got to trust [our game] and stay on top of our game every single game.”

Another strength-of-schedule algorithm calculated by PlayoffStatus.com showed the Islanders to have remarkable consistency in this regard.

The opponents the Islanders (32-21-5) already have played have a winning percentage of .500 and their future opponents also have a .500 winning percentage. The latter statistic ranks the Islanders fifth in the Metropolitan Division, 12th in the Eastern Conference and 16th in the NHL, according to PlayoffStatus.com.

But forward Emil Heineman said all games present equal challenges.

“I don’t know,” he said when Newsday asked if he believes in the concept of some teams playing easier schedules. “Maybe like the timing of the game. But I wouldn’t say it’s a difference. I haven’t thought of it too much. But you’ve still got to play the same teams. Maybe, maybe not, but I wouldn’t say it’s too big of a difference between the teams.”

However, PowerRankingsGuru.com’s ranking of the 32 teams based on the strength of schedule played to this point of the season suggests the statistic does play a factor in a team’s success and likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs.

The Rangers, who waved the white flag on this season when general manager Chris Drury announced a “retool,” are calculated to have played the NHL’s toughest schedule with their average opponent rank of 14.80. The Devils, one of the season’s bigger disappointments after being expected to be one of the Eastern Conference’s top teams, are second at 14.85.

In fact, the seven teams computed to have the toughest schedules are all outside of a playoff spot, as are 11 of the top 15. The Islanders are ranked 17th at 16.33 and the six teams calculated to have played the easiest strength of schedules and nine of the first 10 on that list are all in a playoff spot.