Belmont Stakes 2026: Steve Matthews' horse-by-horse analysis

Golden Tempo, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz wins the 152nd Kentucky... — Golden Tempo, ridden by Jose L. Ortiz wins the 152nd Kentucky Derby followed by Renegade, ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., at Churchill Downs on May 2 in Louisville, Ky. Credit: AP/Abbie Parr

By Steve Matthewssteve.matthews@newsday.comUpdated June 3, 2026 7:05 am

This marks the third and final time the Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga and at 1 1/4 miles. This year's edition is absent of any historical significance but offers a solid betting race with five of the nine entrants having run in the Kentucky Derby. Most will focus on the rematch of Derby winner, Golden Tempo, and Renegade. This corner views those two as benefitting from smoking early fractions in the Derby and each is likely to be overbet. We give the nod to Commandment, who ran seventh in the Derby and could be sitting on a big effort. With Belmont Park set to reopen on Sept. 18, the 2027 renewal will return to its classic distance of 1 1/2 miles.

BELMONT STAKES 2026 TOP FOUR SELECTIONS

(7) Commandment
(8) Emerging Market
(9) Golden Tempo
(4) Renegade

BELMONT STAKES 2026 FIELD ANALYSIS

Vitruvian Man (30-1)

Named after Leonardo da Vinci's drawing of a naked man, this 3-year-old has nothing more than a maiden victory to his credit had appears to be the slowest runner in the field on final numbers. The naked truth? Don't bet him.

Powershift (12-1)

Another that has only beaten losers. But the upside is he's trained by Todd Pletcher and he's in sharp form at the right time. Not the worst place to land at 15-1 or greater.

Chief Wallabee (3-1)

Was freshened after a tough-trip fourth in the Kentucky Derby and tallied a swift late-pace figure in the Florida Derby two starts back. He's also training with a purpose at Saratoga but the knock against him is he's likely to be a significant underlay. Don't bet a dime to win unless he's 6-1 or better.

Renegade (2-1)

Made a visually impressive run to miss by a neck in the Derby but that effort appears "dressed up" as the fractions were absolutely scorching. Certainly can win, but not with my money at 2-1.

Ottinho (20-1)

Along with No. 1 Vitruvian Man, he's only won a maiden race and is far too slow on the final numbers. He's 20-1 with a 200-1 chance.

Growth Equity (12-1)

He's heading into this race after winning two in a row. That's a positive. He beat much softer horses in those two events. That's a negative. From a betting standpoint: Demand 15-1 or more.

Commandment (6-1)

This corner's pick in the Derby that naturally fired a dud. On second analysis, his regression wasn't a total mystery (just to me, apparently) in that he had run two very fast figures in his prior outings and was due to "bounce." We're coming back with him in the Belmont and my advice: "Thou shall not pass if 5-1 or greater."

Emerging Market (6-1)

Took a big-time backward step in the Derby after starting his career with two victories. The talent is there and trainer Chad Brown has a knack for turning these types around. Worth a long look if 8-1 or over.

Golden Tempo (9-2)

Needs no introduction after last-to-first win in the Derby. That said, upon closer scrutiny, the effort loses its luster when one considers the blistering early pace that set up his late run. Playable, of course, but demand at least 8-1.