Steve Matthews' Belmont at the Big A selections for Sunday, Oct. 8
Best bet: INDEPENDENCEAVENUE (8)
Best value: THUNDERIAN (6)
FIRST: Billal worked four times since third to an 11-length winner in debut; forward move predicted. Ridgewood Runner will be aided by return to dirt. Speed Runner concluded work tab with 5-furlong bullet; follow the money.
SECOND: Guardian Angel regressed in last after fast-figured placing in prior; rebounds. Diamond Collector also bounced in last and will be aided by cutback to spring; dangerous. Baby Sox was a sharp second at this level in last; right in the thick of this.
THIRD: Nostalgic is the only member of this four-horse Beldame field with a win at the distance. Randomized meets older rivals after front-running score in Alabama Stakes; could easily take this. A Mo Reay packs strong kick on best efforts.
FOURTH: Clover Street drops and returns to dirt; forward move expected. Big Bean Christine would be aided by pace meltdown. Carbon is right in the thick of this on best efforts.
FIFTH: Book'em Danno logged impressive scores in two starts at Monmouth; ready for prime time. Works for Me could prove very tough on a soft lead; worth long look. Where's Chris logged five-length win in debut; don't ignore.
SIXTH: Thunderian should pack intensified kick with cutback to sprint. Devil's Cay is fleet-footed and could play out as the dominant speed. Prove Right bounced last time after top-figured win in prior; right in the thick of this.
SEVENTH: Movie Moxy gets call if race is moved to wet dirt. Sunset Louise is another MTO that could easily take this on main track. Sparkle Blue owns fast late-pace figures on "A" efforts. Fluffy Socks, Gerrymander and Salimah are three uncoupled Chad Brown runners that must be factored into the mix; what a game.
EIGHTH: Independenceavenue was a "geared down" winner at Colonial Downs last out; takes another. Sugar Hi is speedy and could go wire to wire if allowed unchallenged lead. Marco T. could impact if pace meltdown ensues.
NINTH: Trust the Numbers gets confident price boost in first start since claimed. Violets Smile owns favorable stalker's style; dangerous. She's Awesome broke maiden by more than five lengths last out; worth long look. Coolcalm Collected could prove very tough on an uncontested lead; don't ignore.
