Analysis

Preakness Stakes 2026: Steve Matthews' horse-by-horse analysis

The 151st Preakness Stakes field of 14 horses was set... — The 151st Preakness Stakes field of 14 horses was set following the post position draw on Monday, May 11, 2026, at Laurel Park in Maryland. Credit: Kevin Richardson/The Baltimore Sun/TNS

By Steve Matthewssteve.matthews@newsday.comUpdated May 13, 2026 6:28 am

The 151st Preakness Stakes will be run on Saturday at Laurel Park in Maryland. The race is set to go off around 7 p.m. and is on NBC and Peacock.

Most of the intrigue of the Preakness has been lost with the defection of Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo and second-place finisher, Renegade. With no Triple Crown on the line, the focus becomes wagering, as it always should be in horse racing. With Iron Honor the 9-2 morning line favorite, this shapes up as a solid betting affair. Good luck.

PREAKNESS STAKES 2026: TOP FOUR SELECTIONS

(12) Incredibolt
(1) Taj Mahal
(9) Iron Honor
(2) Ocelli

PREAKNESS 2026 FIELD ANALYSIS

1. Taj Mahal (5-1)

This Maryland-based 3-year-old holds home-field advantage, being 3-for-3 at Laurel. His last win was particularly impressive, earning the field's top pace and final figures. Want more to like? He's fired two 5-furlong bullets since his last start and could play out as the main speed on the rail. Big-time player for sure but demand at least 5-1 or more as he could regress after logging career bests in his last outing.

2. Ocelli (6-1)

He actually had a brief lead with a sixteenth remaining in the Kentucky Derby before getting passed by the top two finishers. The most damaging knocks against him are that he benefited greatly from bruising early fractions to make his late run last time and he's still a maiden. He could easily land in the exotics but with a 6-1 morning line, he's a terrible win wager.

3. Crupper (30-1)

Many lengths slower on final figures than the majority of the field. He's 30-1 on the morning line with more like a 300-1 chance.

4. Robusta (30-1)

He's been far from robust in his last two starts, finishing a combined 33 lengths behind the winners in those efforts. Let's move on.

5. Talkin (20-1)

Outworked 103 rivals in half-mile bullet drill last week. He's moving in the right direction on the numbers and gets bonus points for having Irad Ortiz aboard. Not a total toss out but demand 30-1 or better if you like him.

6. Chip Honcho (5-1)

He's rested, training consistently and gets the services of Derby winning rider Jose Ortiz. He's also got positional speed but his ability to handle the distance is questionable. Demand 8-1 or greater before heading to the windows.

7. The Hell We Did (15-1)

Hails from the low-profile but more-than-capable Todd Fincher barn. He's only got two sprint wins on his resume and appears to likely be a pace casualty. His speed helps but don't take less than 15-1 if you like him.

8. Bull by the Horns (30-1)

His trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr. is his greatest attribute. Working well but appears too slow on the final figures. Can't fault you if you bet him at 30-1 or more.

9. Iron Honor (9-2)

Was 2-for-2 before getting derailed in the Wood Memorial (a bad seventh). Hard to ignore anything from the Chad Brown barn, especially when they head into a race after four tightly-grouped workouts. Certainly has a chance but he's likely to be a massive underlay. You make the call.

10. Napoleon Solo (8-1)

Showed tremendous potential as a 2-year-old but has only gone backward in his two starts at age 3. I think we've seen his Waterloo. Doubtful he'll turn things around here.

11. Corona de Oro (30-1)

Was done in by pace pressure when he placed third in the Lexington last time out and could fall victim to same fate on Saturday. Make sure he's 30-1 or better before taking the plunge.

12. Incredibolt (5-1)

This corner's top selection. Was a non-stressful sixth in the Derby after being sidelined for nearly two months and logged a swift late-pace figure when winning at Colonial Downs on March 14. Should be sitting on a big-time forward move and the cutback in distance will serve to intensify his closing punch. I'll wager with gusto if he's 6-1 or greater.

13. Great White (15-1)

This monster of a racehorse is nearly 1,400 pounds and earned the sympathy of many after flipping and landing on his back, necessitating a scratch, before the Derby. On recent form, he's hard to back. Has about as much chance as one does of being eaten by a shark.