Steve Matthews' Preakness Stakes horse-by-horse analysis

1-SIMPLIFICATION: His late-running fourth in the Kentucky Derby was dressed up with the aid of sizzling early fractions. Couple that with his surprisingly low 6-1 ML, and it's highly doubtful he'll offer the value this corner searches for. His positive? The rail is an advantage on Pimlico's tight-turned track. Not worth backing unless 18-1 or greater at post time.

2-CREATIVE MINISTER: Comes in riding a two-race winning streak (albeit versus weaker fields) but a lightly-raced and still-developing 3-year-old demands the utmost respect. Definitely worth cracking open the piggy bank if his odds exceed 15-1 just before they spring the latch.

3-FENWICK: He's 50-1 on the ML but his actual chances appear to be more like 500-1. Next, please. 

4-SECRET OATH: Tries the boys again after defeating 13 rivals in a fast-figured win in the Kentucky Oaks. On paper, she's certainly razor-sharp and fast enough on the numbers but what matters most is the tote board. She's likely to be in the range of 5-1 at post time. That's simply not enough price to wager on this filly.

5-EARLY VOTING: Sure, he's from the Chad Brown barn, owns fast final figures, and two wins and a second in three starts. But in horse racing, it's never about looking for the most obvious, it's about shopping for the best price. Has the look of a decided tote underlay. Won't get my vote or my money.

6-HAPPY JACK: You won't be happy if you bet him. Trainer Doug O'Neill adds blinkers after 19-length drubbing in Derby. Hard pressed to see a turnaround for a runner that's not even that good on his best efforts. Only for those named Jack. 

7-ARMAGNAC: Named for a distinctive type of brandy from the Armagnac region in southwest France. I've never tried it, but if you bet this runner, I can almost assure you, you'll need a good strong belt of it when he finishes up the track. 

8-EPICENTER: The one that will attract most of the public's cash but definitely not ours. Really shouldn't have lost the Derby after opening up a clear lead in the stretch and failing to hold off 80-1 Rich Strike. It was an overly-stressful effort and not many horses can deliver continuous big efforts before a "bounce" (regression). Don't want to be aboard this one when he fires a blank at even-money.  

9-SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING: This below-the-radar Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee logged a scorching late-pace figure when third in the Wood Memorial and was wisely given seven weeks to recover. The barn is one of the best in South Florida and his workouts that followed at Palm Meadows Training Center in Boynton Beach are nothing short of spectacular. I'll unfasten the money clip if 12-1 or greater.

By Steve Matthews

steve.matthews@newsday.com