Steve Matthews' Kentucky Derby 2022 horse-by-horse analysis

TOP FOUR SELECTIONS: 1 — Mo Donegal, 16 — Cyberknife, 6 — Messier, 10 — Zandon

1 — Mo Donegal

One of three runners from the Todd Pletcher barn, visually and numerically impressed (and earned the field's fastest late-pace figure, to boot) when winning the Wood Memorial last out. Don't fret over the supposed hindrance of his rail draw, that's more myth than reality. Horse racing is all about price, not dogma. Bet with gusto if 6-1 or greater.

2 — Happy Jack

A son of 2013 Preakness winner Oxbow, Happy Jack is improving with each start, but he'd have to make a monumental leap forward to contend here. Morning line is 30-1 but his real-time chances are closer to 300-1.

3 — Epicenter

An authoritative winner of the Louisiana Derby last time, reversing in the process (that's pace-handicapping speak for running very fast in the latter part of the race). Definitely a big-time contender, but his 4-for-6 slate and top-notch connections will only serve to drive down his price. 

4 — Summer Is Tomorrow

Summer Is Tomorrow has made all seven of his starts in the United Arab Emirates and his jockey and trainer are virtual unknowns. For stabbers only.

5 — Smile Happy

Smile Happy was the public choice when second, and less than three lengths behind, 3-1 morning-line favorite Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes last out. If he's anywhere close to his 20-1 ML at post time, you'd be violating the laws of parimutuel wagering not to head to the betting windows.

6 — Messier

This Canada-bred will be hard pressed to live up to the accomplishments of his hockey superstar namesake, but he still has a big chance to leave his own mark. He has positional speed, fast final figures and spent the bulk of his career (before being moved to the Tim Yakteen barn two races back) in the Bob Baffert organization. Would make for a very interesting postrace interview if he pulls it off.

7 — Crown Pride

Crown Pride is another that attempts to win America's biggest race in his stateside debut (see No. 4 Summer Is Tomorrow). While the top prize could be beyond his reach, he should be able to handle the 1 1/4-mile distance and he fired a half-mile bullet work on the Churchill Downs strip. Get your IRS info handy if he lands in the exotics.

8 — Charge It

Charge It, Pletcher's second horse in the field, was compromised by striking the gate when a change-of-pace second in the Florida Derby. This son of Tapit has a versatile running style and is an astounding 20-1 on the ML and is a must-use in gimmick tickets if overlooked in the betting. 

9 — Tiz the Bomb

This colt presents a conundrum in that he holds razor-sharp current form, but he defeated lesser rivals in his last two starts. With the potential of being upwards of 30-1 at post time, he certainly is not the worst entrant to factor into exotic wagers.

10 — Zandon

A powerful late runner from Chad Brown's barn, made an eye-catching last-to-first move to win the Blue Grass Stakes and he followed that effort with two ultra-sharp workouts. Big-time player for all the marbles but more than likely to be undervalued. You make the call.

11 — Pioneer of Medina

The third entry from Pletcher adds fuel to the pace fire to aid trainer's primary runner, Mo Donegal. Don't expect to see him in the same zip code as the top players at the wire.

12 — Taiba

Taiba was unfazed when moved from the Baffert to Yakteen barn prior to top-figured score in the Santa Anita Derby. Like the other Baffert/Yakteen runner, Messier, if this one lands in the winner's circle, the postrace interview will be must-see TV. Obviously has oodles of talent but the biggest question is the quality of the fields he has beaten in Southern California. Demand 12-1 or better before loosening the money clip.

13 — Simplification

His merits are that he has positional speed and jockey Jose Ortiz, but the list ends there. Not one we're looking to use on any tickets. 

14 — Barber Road

A deep closer that could be aided in field in which a pace meltdown could be a reality. Has hit the board in seven of eight starts and his price should be beefy. Interesting runner to put underneath in trifectas and superfectas.

15 — White Abarrio

The Florida Derby winner has won four of his five outings and is 10-1 on the ML. Speaks volumes as to how deep this field is. Without a doubt he can have an influence in the outcome. Not the worst place to land.

16 — Cyberknife

Hard to fathom the winner of the Arkansas Derby and a runner from two-time Trainer of the Year Brad Cox listed at 20-1 on the ML. Perfect sit-and-pounce running style that fits the probable pace dynamics to a T. Big-time contender.

17 — Classic Causeway

Classic Causeway stopped on a dime and failed to beat a runner in the Florida Derby last time. His speed is an asset, but his ability to stay the distance looks be his downfall. This corner loves front-runners, but we'll have to pass on this one.

18 — Tawny Port

Another from the Cox barn, Tawny Port appears a cut below Cyberknife and will have to make a forward move on the numbers to contend. Doesn't get our pulse racing.

19 — Zozos

Runner No. 3 from Cox stable, Zozos was second to Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby, has talent and is likely to fall beneath the radar in the wagering. Keep your eyes on the tote; if he's anything above 15-1 at post time, it may be time to take the rubber band off the bankroll.

20 — Ethereal Road

It would be a tremendous story if he could give 86-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas his fifth Derby victory. Only for those who believe in fairy-tale endings.

Also eligible

21 — Rich Strike has just a maiden-claiming victory to his credit. Easy toss out.

22 — Rattle N Roll was a Grade 1 winner as a 2-year-old but has done nothing since. Likely to be scratched.

By Steve Matthews

steve.matthews@newsday.com