UFC 276 odds: Things to think about when planning your bets
Robbie Lawler after he knocked out Nick Diaz in the third round of their middleweight fight during UFC 266 at T-Mobile Arena on September 25, 2021 in Las Vegas. Credit: Getty Images/Alex Bierens de Haan
These are not UFC 276 picks. These are not UFC 276 predictions. They're not really even UFC 276 betting tips.
They are simply some facts about each fighter to think about should you consider placing any wagers on UFC 276 this Saturday in Las Vegas, provided you live in a state where such activity is legal.
Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier
Eight of Adesanya’s 12 fights in the UFC have gone the distance, including his one career loss. Adesanya has a +1.28 significant strike differential and 49% striking accuracy. His four consecutive title defenses is second best in UFC middleweight history behind Anderson Silva.
Cannonier is 5-1 since dropping down to middleweight from light heavyweight. The lone loss came via decision to Robert Whittaker, who has twice lost to Adesanya. He has 10 career knockout victories, including four at middleweight.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway
In their 10 previous rounds against each other, Volkanovski has outstruck Holloway in seven of them. (They tied in one round.)
Holloway’s output in the championship rounds was higher than in the earlier rounds in both of his fights against Volkanovski.
Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira
Strickland is on a six-fight win streak in the UFC, the last three (and four overall) by decision. He has 14 career finishes (10 KO/TKO) and 11 decisions.
Pereira, known as the last person to knock out Israel Adesanya during their kickboxing careers, has six career MMA fights. He’s 5-1 with four knockouts. In the UFC, he’s 2-0 with one TKO and one decision.
Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O’Malley
Munhoz has lost four of his last five bouts, all of which came against former or current champions. All five of those fights went the distance. But in his 19 career wins, eight were by submission, five by KO/TKO and six by decision.
O’Malley has only lost once in his 16 pro fights, a first-round TKO by Marlon Vera in 2020. “Suga” has 11 career wins by KO, including six in the UFC. Of those six, four came in the first round, with two in the third.
Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner
Turner has an eight-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over Riddell. Turner also has a +2.17 significant strike differential, compared with Riddell’s 1.21. Turner has only gone the distance twice, both losses. He’s on a four-fight win streak, two by TKO and two by submission. Of his 12 career wins, 75% ended in a knockout.
Riddell’s 10 wins are split evenly between knockouts and decisions. He’s coming off a KO loss in February to Rafael Fiziev, the first of his career. All four of his UFC wins have gone the distance.
Donald Cerrone vs. Jim Miller
Miller, who has the most fights in UFC history with 39, is on a two-fight win streak.
Cerrone, third on the list with 37 UFC fights, has lost five of his last six fights, with the outlier being another loss that was overturned to a no contest after Niko Price tested positive for a banned substance.
Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena
Lawler last fought in September 2021, stopping Nick Diaz (on a six-year hiatus) with a third-round TKO. Before that, Lawler had lost four in a row (three by decision. For all the excitement he generates with his striking, Lawler has a -0.69 significant strike differential, meaning he gets hit more than he hits.
Barberena is known for being able to take a pounding, evidenced by the 4.83 significant strikes he absorbs per minute. But he also lands 5.61, giving him a +0.78 differential. His last four fights have gone the distance, and his last six fights have gone beyond the halfway point of the third round. Eleven of his 14 UFC fights have gone at 2:54 into the third round.
Ian Garry vs. Gabriel Green
Garry’s nickname is “The Future” and he’s talked about as such after a 9-0 start with 5 KOs and one submission. He’s 2-0 in the UFC with a first-round stoppage and a unanimous decision win. In his six total stoppages, none have gone deeper than 3:17 of the second round.
Green doesn’t like going the distance, having only made it to the final bell twice in 14 fights. He’s on a two-fight win streak after dropping his UFC debut. Green has six submissions and four knockouts in his career.
Uriah Hall vs. Andre Muniz
Hall, 37, has 17 career wins, 13 by KO/TKO. Of his 10 losses, 6 were by decision, and none were by submission.
Muniz is a submission specialist, with 68% of his 22 career wins coming by submission. All four of his losses were by KO/TKO. Muniz has four straight UFC wins by submission, including one against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
Jessica Eye vs. Maycee Barber
Of Eye’s 26 career fights, 73% of them have gone to a decision, including 11 of 15 wins and eight of 10 losses. The 35-year-old Eye has lost three straight.
Barber, 24, is on a two-fight win streak, both by decision. Before that, she lost two in a row by decision. And before that, she won her first four UFC fights by stoppage.
Brad Tavares vs. Dricus Du Plessis
When he wins, Tavares tends to go the distance — 12 of his 13 UFC wins are by decision.
Du Plessis is 2-0 in the UFC. Both wins were by knockout, including one in the first round and one in the second. He’s averaging three takedowns and has a +2.68 significant strike differential in those two bouts.
Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Twelve of Clark’s 20 fights have gone the distance, including five of seven in the UFC.
Eight of Stoliarenko’s nine career wins have come by submission. She is 0-4 in the UFC, with two of her last three losses by decision and one by third-round submission.
Mark La Monica is a deputy sports editor at Newsday. He also covers mixed martial arts.
