LI student enrollment still dropping

A drop in Long Island's student enrollments that began five years ago is forecast to accelerate over the next decade - likely prompting more districts to cut staff and close schools

The area's school-age population is projected to drop by 38,380 students - or 7.6 percent - over the next five years, according to a leading university researcher. That would be nearly double the 19,560 students lost between 2004-05 and 2009-10.

"Every school district is going to struggle in looking at their facilities," said Lorraine Deller, executive director of the Nassau-Suffolk School Boards Association. "They're going to have to mothball some of their schools, perhaps."

The downturn will also force some smaller districts among the Island's 124 to consider mergers with neighbors, some regional analysts say, though others consider this a long shot.

A decline already has been felt in districts such as Lindenhurst and Mineola, which have ordered buildings to be shuttered.

Closing schools often is an emotional issue for parents and students.

"I'm totally against it . . . I don't think the savings will be there," said John Rudy, 41, of Lindenhurst, who was walking his 5-year-old home yesterday from the district's Edward W. Bower Elementary School. The 243-student school is due to close at the end of this school year.

Jonathan T. Hughes, a St. John's University professor who developed the projections based on U.S. Census estimates and privately published data, predicts the future enrollment decline will be prolonged. Hughes is scheduled to present the projections at a March conference sponsored by SCOPE, a regional nonprofit education agency in Smithtown.

Those projections show the sharpest drops will occur in middle schools and high schools in Nassau County and western Suffolk, with lighter losses in the East End where some population growth continues. Hughes notes that enrollments are apt to be hit not only by a cyclical decline in birthrates that began in the 1990s but also by the recent economic downturn, which could discourage couples from having children because of the expense.

"What we're going to see is a decline right through 2020," said Hughes, who is director of the Center for Educational Leadership and Accountability at St. John's Oakdale campus.

What's happening on the Island is also occurring through most of the Northeast, which has been outstripped in population growth by the Sun Belt. In contrast to Long Island, federal analysts predict continued enrollment growth nationwide through 2018.

Regional experts on the Island who have heard Hughes' presentations agree the local decline is likely to be pronounced - and other demographic surveys confirm the trend.

An annual report issued by Western Suffolk BOCES last June predicted public-school enrollments would drop by an average 3,721 students annually between 2009-10 and 2012-13. That would be substantially greater than the decline between 2004-05 and 2009-10, an annual average of 2,848 students.

About 453,100 students currently attend grades K-12 in public schools in Nassau and Suffolk counties, with roughly 48,000 students in nonpublic schools.

A combination of falling enrollments and tight budgets already has prompted Mineola school officials to announce the closing of Cross Street Elementary next September, followed by Willis Avenue Elementary a year later.

Other closings could be looming as well. Smithtown authorities are considering a possible elementary-school closure next fall. While that prospect alarms many parents of young children, other residents view closure as inevitable in a tight economy.

"What are you going to do? It's part of the population drop, and if we can't afford a school, we're going to have to close it," said Robin Magliato, a Smithtown parent with two grown children and a third enrolled in high school.

Resistance to such moves remains strong, nonetheless. Connetquot's school superintendent, Alan Groveman, says his district has never really considered a closing, even though any dramatic, long-lasting enrollment decline might eventually force the shuttering of its smallest school, John Pearl Elementary, in Bohemia. "The parents are very attached to having neighborhood schools," Groveman said.

Indeed, some districts are finding new uses for classrooms that are prompting expansion rather than contraction. Westbury, which added full-day preschool classes two years ago, has enlarged three of its own schools this year and also rents additional space in a Catholic school nearby.

"Believe me, if I had the funding, I would add more classrooms," said Constance Clark-Snead, the district superintendent.