Experts: LI on possible 'downslope' from latest COVID-19 surge

The latest COVID-19 surge appears to have peaked and is on a gradual "downslope," Long Island medical experts said Thursday, though an uptick in cases is still being reported among the youngest children.

New daily cases on Long Island hit a peak of 2,192 on May 19 during the latest surge. On Tuesday, the number was down to 1,290 and Wednesday it was 945, according to New York State data.

Those numbers are considered a vast undercount because many people now do home tests, which are not reported to the state.

The seven-day positivity average on Long Island hit a recent peak of 11.1% on May 19, according to state data. On Tuesday, it was at 9.75%, and on Wednesday it was 9.45%.

"It really is apparent that we are probably, if not in a plateau, I think we are starting to be in a little bit of a decline,” said Dr. Peter Silver, Northwell Health’s chief quality officer.

The omicron subvariant fueling the current surge is “mild and extremely contagious … and hopefully on the downslope,” he said.

Northwell Health currently has 313 inpatients who have tested positive for COVID-19, according to Silver, but most entered the hospital for other reasons. No patients are in ICU because of COVID-19, he said.

By comparison, Northwell had 3,500 patients with COVID-19 in April 2020 at the height of the pandemic — many in ICU and others who died.

The latest surge seems to be following a pattern of COVID-19 upticks, where it peaks after one or two months of spreading through some of the most susceptible groups before gradually dropping off, said Dr. Alan Bulbin, director of infectious disease at Catholic Health St. Francis Hospital & Heart Center in Roslyn.

While overall case numbers are heading downward now, said Dr. Sharon Nachman, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at Stony Brook Medicine, hospitals throughout Long Island and the nation are seeing an increase in cases among children, especially those 5 and younger.

Children younger than 5 are in the only age group still not eligible for COVID-19 vaccines.

“It’s worrisome,” Nachman said.

It's not entirely clear why children are getting hospitalized for COVID-19 in larger numbers, Nachman added, but it could be partly because adults and even older children have a far higher vaccination rate than younger children.

A COVID-19 vaccine may soon be on the way for children younger than 5.

Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech, on Wednesday finished submitting an application for authorization for that age group.

Some medical experts said Thursday they think shots could be going into arms of the youngest children by the end of this month, though others said it likely will not be until well into the summer.

The White House on Thursday set a possible vaccine rollout date of June 21.

Dr. Matthew Harris, medical director of Northwell’s vaccine program, said the approval process may be somewhat longer than typical because the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention want “to make sure parents have confidence in this vaccine.”

Studies have shown the shot to have high levels of efficacy in children 5 and under, he said, adding he is confident approval will be granted.

“I’m optimistic as a parent and as a pediatrician,” Harris said, noting he has a child younger than 5. “I think this is fantastic news.”

Harris said he expects the vaccine to be approved by the end of June, though Nachman said it will likely be later.

Meanwhile, Silver said it is impossible to say what will happen with the virus overall this summer, since it is so unpredictable.

But what does seem clear is that it is not going away anytime soon.

“Most infectious disease doctors don’t expect COVID to ever fully disappear,” with surges possibly occurring once a year or more, Silver said.

Nachman said she is more concerned about another surge of cases in the fall and winter than the summer, when people here will be more likely to spend time outdoors.

Whatever happens, Silver said he is confident that with vaccines and treatments “it will be manageable and that we won’t go back to where we were in the spring of 2020. I think those days are gone.”