Daily average of COVID-19 cases on LI rises by 77% in a week

The daily average of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Long Island has jumped by more than 75% in the last week, fueled by the highly contagious delta variant and large numbers of people who are still unvaccinated, according to state data released Thursday and medical experts.

Daily averages reached 121 cases on Long Island for the seven days ending Wednesday, representing a 77.9% increase from a week ago, when the daily average was 68 cases, state data showed. A year ago, the daily average was 115 new cases per day on Long Island.

Statewide, the daily average increased 64.7%, from 445 cases to 733 in one week, exceeding the 680-case average reported one year ago.

Long Island continued its recent increase in new cases reported daily — 174 in test results completed Wednesday, including 91 in Nassau County and 83 in Suffolk County. That was the region’s largest single-day total reported since May 19.

COVID-19 indicators have been inching up for weeks on Long Island and throughout the state. As recently as June 26, Nassau registered as few as 19 cases. Suffolk’s number was as low as 18 on June 24.

Still, the numbers are far below the highs registered during the worst days of the pandemic. Nassau hit 1,938 cases on April 7, 2020, for instance, while Suffolk registered 2,194 cases on Jan. 6 of this year.

Medical experts said they are concerned about the recent rise, especially since the region — like the state and the country — does not appear to be on track to reach "herd immunity" with enough people vaccinated to essentially shut down the virus.

Dr. David Battinelli, chief medical officer at Northwell Health, said the solution to heading off the increase in cases is obvious: Get vaccinated.

Even in areas where the vaccination campaign has gone fairly well, 20% to 30% of the population is not vaccinated, he said. And many of the unvaccinated are now going without masks, he added.

"All these people are still subject to the disease," Battinelli said. "It is extremely unlikely" that vaccinated people will be infected, he said.

"The answer to what to do is continue to vaccinate. … What concerns me is that these people just don’t quite get the obvious lesson learned. … Get vaccinated, we’re all good. And if you’re not vaccinated and you don’t want to wear a mask, you’re putting yourself at risk."

He also said the virus is not likely to be completely eliminated. "There’s no such thing as gone."

Still, he said, there will be limits to how high the new cases can go because a substantial segment of the population in New York is vaccinated.

County Executive Laura Curran said Thursday that "Nassau is in a strong position, thanks to our high vaccination rate, but highly contagious COVID-19 variants like delta underscore the need to keep getting shots into arms. The more residents who roll up their sleeves, the stronger our defense against more contagious variants will be."

The level of positive test results is also on the rise, reflecting in part the spread of the variant.

The seven-day average on Long Island has risen in the last three days from 1.04% to 1.07% to 1.23%, according to state data. Long Island's positivity rate now exceeds the 1.1% level reported for July 14, 2020, even though the region and state have waged a large mass vaccination campaign.

"New York State continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic as more residents get vaccinated every single day, but we need everyone who hasn't taken the shot yet to do so as soon as possible," Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said in a statement Thursday.

"Millions of New Yorkers have gotten vaccinated, and sites are open across the state for appointments or walk-ins. Getting vaccinated doesn't just help you — it keeps your family and community safe too, so take your shot today."

The statewide level of positive results has gone up from 0.93% to 0.95% to 1.04% in the last three days.

Across the state, three people died Wednesday of causes linked to the virus.

Experts say vaccinated individuals are less likely to die from COVID-19 or exhibit severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, even if they test positive for the virus.

Long Island hospitalizations dropped by one to 54 patients from a day earlier. That is down from 59 hospitalizations one week ago and from 105 hospitalizations a year ago.

No new Long Island deaths were reported Thursday, compared with two deaths one year ago.

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