Experts: New COVID-19 subvariants, but no need to panic

Two new omicron subvariants are helping fuel a steady rise in COVID-19 cases upstate and on Long Island, medical experts said, but without a spike so far in hospitalizations and deaths, they aren't overly concerned.

Instead, this is what they expect life to look like for the foreseeable future — COVID-19 will not be eradicated. But thanks to vaccines and boosters, the virus will become endemic like the flu and less lethal than previous COVID-19 strains.

“I think we are going to be living with endemic COVID,” said Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of public health and epidemiology for Northwell Health.

“This is what endemic COVID is going to be, with ups and downs, and minor ripples without full waves, and I think that is what we are seeing," Farber said. “To expect that we’re going to get rid of this completely and you’re not going to see your friends and relatives having mild COVID is just not realistic at the present time."

Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York City Mayor Eric Adams have both acknowledged that cases are on the rise, but said they have no plans to reimpose mandates.

The new subvariants, named BA. 2.12 and BA. 2.12.1, are derived from the subvariant of omicron known as BA.2. They are considered 23% to 27% more contagious than BA. 2, which was the most contagious form of COVID-19 yet, according to the state Department of Health.

The department sent out an alert recently that the new subvariants are partly responsible for a rise in cases in central New York and the neighboring Finger Lakes region.

"We are alerting the public to two omicron subvariants, newly emerged and rapidly spreading in upstate New York, so New Yorkers can act swiftly," said State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett in a statement. "While these subvariants are new, the tools to combat them are not.”

The state said the BA. 2 subvariant now makes up nearly 81% of all COVID-19 cases in New York.

State health officials saw cases increasing upstate, and as they investigated, found that in March, the BA. 2.12 and BA. 2.12.1 subvariants accounted for more than 70% of cases in Central New York and more than 20% in the Finger Lakes region.

Data for April indicates that levels in Central New York are now above 90%, the department said. The state did not release the figures for Long Island.

But overall COVID-19 numbers are increasing on Long Island. The seven-day positivity level was 5.46% as of Sunday. After topping 1,000 late last week, case numbers dropped in test results from Sunday, to 731, but that may be because fewer people tested during weekend holidays.

Medical experts said the numbers are a vast undercount on Long Island, as well as throughout the state, since most people are testing at home and not reporting positive results to the state. 

“The rates are significantly higher than they were a month ago, higher than I thought they would be,” Farber said. He added that part of the increase is likely due to the new subvariants.

But he said he is “not nearly as alarmed because I don’t see hospitalizations climbing, I don’t see people dying. I think that most of the people who are getting COVID now have relatively mild illnesses. For now, this is just the way we have to live. We’re not going to go back to lockdowns. That’s not realistic.”

Hochul on Sunday said as much, indicating that despite the rising number of cases, mask mandates or shutdowns of schools, businesses and other activities are not an option.

“It is coming back,” Hochul said of the rise in cases, on “The Cats Roundtable” on AM 970. “I hate to say that and I said as governor I’m going to protect the health of New Yorkers, but I’m also protecting the economy. I’m not going to shut it down again, you can count on that."

Adams, speaking Monday at City Hall, said that “we are advising New Yorkers to wear a mask but we’re not at the point of mandate right now."

Statewide, nine people died of causes linked to COVID-19 on Thursday, while 1,216 were hospitalized with the virus, an increase of 30 from the previous day. Data on hospitalizations and deaths from the holiday weekend were delayed, the state said Monday.

Chris Singh, a Nassau County resident, said he is watching the numbers closely.

"I am very concerned," he said. "It's back on the rise again on Long Island and it's something to take seriously."

Medical experts said they expect the COVID-19 rates to continue to rise a bit more, especially given holiday gatherings over the weekend for Easter and Passover. Then they should start to fall, since it appears to take subvariants about three weeks to peak.

Farber said the increasing rates also are due to people’s waning immunity, as months have passed since they got their last shot or obtained natural immunity after becoming infected with the omicron variant.

Dr. Alan Bulbin, director of infectious disease at Catholic Health St. Francis Hospital & Heart Center in Roslyn, said the new subvariants probably represent the tail end of the omicron surge, and hopefully will fade away soon. A bigger worry is that a new variant like the delta from last summer emerges. Delta was not as contagious as omicron, but caused more severe disease and more death, he said.

Bulbin said that even though the new subvariants are not as severe as delta and the original COVID-19, the same groups as always remain at high risk of getting hospitalized or dying, including the elderly, the immunocomprised and young children not yet eligible for the vaccine.

With Cecilia Dowd

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